Orlando Magic: Should Elfrid Payton Be Worried?

In a relatively low-key move, the Orlando Magic acquired guard Shabazz Napier from the Miami Heat in return for a protected second round draft pick. We say this is on the smaller end of things, because Napier was only drafted last season and had a relatively poor rookie season in the league. A two-time national champion and college star with the University of Connecticut Huskies, he is yet to replicate that form in essentially any way in the league.

He only appeared in 51 games, with averages of 5.1 points and 2.5 assists per game. Hardly numbers to get Magic fans overly excited for his arrival, but he is still young and has plenty of upside. More than that, it didn’t cost much at all to acquire him, he’s still on his rookie deal for the next couple of years and can now grow in a place with more modest expectations. When you put it that way, this is a great move for all involved, right?

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Certainly the team has picked up a potential bargain here, and Napier should see his role become more clearly defined for him. But one person who may not be overly happy is Elfrid Payton. One of the top five best rookies in the league last season (In my mind I’d argue top three) he finally looked to have a little bit of stability with which to move forward in this league.

Remember, in his one season in the league, Payton went from a guy off the bench to starting point guard, while also playing under two head coaches (Jacque Vaughn and James Borrego). Scott Skiles will be his third coach when the season begins, meaning he will have played under one coach for an average of 27.6 games in the NBA before having to start over with another — hardly the kind of stability needed to grow in confidence in this league.

His Summer League play was notable, although he was absolutely overshadowed by teammate Aaron Gordon. We know what he is, and that’s a defensive minded point guard with a high IQ and some tremendous passing skills. His jump shooting is essentially zero, but he is getting better and better at driving to the basket. Payton is by no means a bad player, he’s just quite a unique one whose skill set is harder to appreciate at a time when spacing and three-point shooting are all the rage.

Which begs the question, is Payton’s future actually under a bit of threat already with the Magic? You would expect Napier to come off the bench for this team, at least initially. Here he can provide a nice scoring touch, and could prove an intriguing backcourt combination with another new addition, CJ Watson. Last season he shot 36.4% from beyond the three-point line, a number you feel can improve and also that Payton will struggle to reach anytime soon.

Another interesting take on this move is what it does for Orlando’s flexibility. Only last week I spoke about the interesting potential that this roster now maybe had to play some small ball next season if they wanted to.

That brand of play should not be hyped up as something that will guarantee success for this team. But having the ability to add more variety to their lineups is something that can only help when they are invariably in tight spots next season.

At the time I questioned how Payton could fit into a system like that, and indeed Napier would appear on the surface at least to be better equipped to play in a small ball lineup. He’s got the height, although he is slender. He’s also a better shooter than Payton, at least right now. So it would be interesting to see him play with some projected starters (Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Mario Hezonja and Gordon) in a setup like that.

Of course, we don’t know if Skiles will want to play that way, but as a former point guard himself, he knows the ins and outs of the position better than most. If there comes a point where he feels Napier can contribute more to the starting group, he will not hesitate to make the necessary changes. Remember, it’s not like Payton is at a different point in his career to Napier.

Both came from the same draft (Payton was drafted 10th, the Heat moved up to take Napier 24th) and while the Magic gushed about Payton’s potential with this team, basketball is a business to the people who make the key decisions. It’s not like he’s running out of time, but from the outside looking in it does seem like the team is putting the squeeze on him to either stand up and be counted or eventually slip down the rotation.

Again this is great for the Magic as an organization, they are finally beginning to see some depth at key positions, and they say competition for places creates higher standards throughout the roster. As we’ve seen with Michael Carter-Williams and the Philadelphia 76ers as well, a great start to your career doesn’t mean the team won’t suddenly want to go in a different direction (Carter-Williams even took home Rookie of the Year honors, and was still traded to the Milwaukee Bucks).

This isn’t the end of Payton with the Magic, it’s far from it. But the picture is changing pretty quickly for him. From being given the keys to the team in his rookie year and allowing him to make mistakes and grow, to then seeing not only a veteran in Watson come in (He will be a backup however he’s a capable player) but also a guy who was selected in the same draft as him with a different skill set.

Magic fans are happy with him, he brings something different and looks like he’s only going to get better. The only issue now is the margin for error is smaller. This year will be a huge one for both young guards, with the starting spot on an up and coming team in the weaker Eastern conference likely up for grabs. The question is, who you got?

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