Milwaukee Bucks: Robin Lopez or Greg Monroe?

Free agency has begun and teams with money are looking to spend it. Due to the salary cap projected to increase to $108 million by the year 2017, teams are looking to sign free agents to long-term deals that will look like bargains in a few years.

Anthony Davis is getting $145 million over five years. Kevin Love is getting $108.9 million over five years. Even the 37-year-old Paul Pierce is getting a three-year deal.

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The free agent agenda for the Milwaukee Bucks has been pretty clear for awhile now. First, re-sign Khris Middleton at whatever it takes. Second, lock up one of the many available centers on a deal of three years or more

According to ESPN’s Marc Stein, the Bucks have already taken care of business on the first objective, agreeing in principle to a five-year deal worth $70 million for Middleton.

Now the team can begin its hunt for their starting center of the future (or at least the next few years). After just one day however, Milwaukee’s options already are diminishing.

Players that the Bucks have had rumored interest in like Brook Lopez and Tyson Chandler are no longer possibilities as both have been reported to have agreed upon deals (Lopez with the Nets and Chandler with Phoenix).

Milwaukee isn’t panicking though, and are being reported to have made progress with forward/center Greg Monroe and center Robin Lopez.

Assuming both players are strongly considering playing in Milwaukee given the meetings, which one would be the best fit on Jason Kidd‘s Bucks?

Robin Lopez

Robin Lopez, twin of Brook Lopez, is a 7-footer with lots of NBA experience. The 27-year-old has played seven NBA seasons in three cities after being selected with the No. 15 overall pick in the 2008 NBA Draft.

Lopez excels on the offensive glass with nearly half of his career rebounds coming off his teammates’ misses (1070 offensive vs. 1277 defensive). He uses his prototypical size and strong base to gain position and play the carom of the rim. During his 2014-15 campaign, 51.3 percent of his total rebounds were contested, including 2.4 contested offensive rebounds per game.

Lopez has been a part of some impressive offensive teams during his career such as the Steve Nash Phoenix teams and Portland’s explosive offense from the 2013-14 season. His career offensive rating is an impressive 117. I’d bet money on that number coming down a bit if he plays for next year’s Bucks team, but he should be an upgrade regardless.

A career free throw percentage of 75.9 percent for a center is also very attractive.

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Generated 7/1/2015.

His defensive numbers aren’t fantastic, but he’s far from a liability. Lopez posted a career best 104 defensive rating last season for Portland and that number could be reduced playing with strong defensive players like Khris Middleton and Michael Carter-Williams.

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Last year, opponents shot on average 1.8 percent worse when guarded by Lopez and 5.3 percent worse on shots closer than 10 feet. He’s not an elite rim-protector, but his combination of size and mobility have allowed him to block two shots per game for his career average.

It’s difficult to speculate just how much it would cost the Bucks to sign Robin Lopez given the changing nature of contracts, but a deal similar to $50 million over four years seems reasonable given the market.

Greg Monroe

The 6’11”, 253-pound Greg Monroe is a very different player than Lopez. Age is a plus for Monroe who just turned 25 and already has five years of experience under his belt. Since Detroit drafted Andre Drummond in 2012, Monroe has been playing quite a bit of power forward, but prior he had almost exclusively been a center. A move to Milwaukee could return him to this position.

Monroe is a more well-rounded offensive player than Lopez and has a much more featured role in the offense than him. Monroe can be isolated in the post and finish with hook shots or at the rim, but he can also finish as the roll man in the pick and roll. His career offensive rating is 109, but that has to be taken with a grain of salt considering the Pistons teams that he has played on.

He has been surrounded with significantly less offensive talent in his career than Lopez.

The stat that stands out the most for him is his rebounding numbers. Monroe gobbled up rebounds this past season on his way to averaging double-digit rebounds (10.2 per game). Only 40.8 percent of his total rebounds were contested and he grabbed 5.1 uncontested defensive rebounds per game, but 10-plus boards a night in the NBA is impressive regardless.

Because of this though, I’m not willing to say he impacts the game on the glass more than Lopez.

Defensively, Monroe offers very little rim protection. His below-average athleticism keeps him from really using his 7’2″ wingspan effectively. Because of this, he only averaged half a block per game this past season. That number could increase slightly coming to Milwaukee and not having to play next to Andre Drummond, but he will never be a major shot-blocker.

This doesn’t mean Monroe can’t be a solid defender though. A 103 defensive rating with the Pistons this past season suggests he is developing into a capable defender.

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Generated 7/1/2015.

I could see Greg Monroe commanding slightly more than Lopez and maybe even a fifth-year player option on his contract. His youth is a plus and he’s not strictly stuck in the mold of a role player as much as Robin Lopez is. I wouldn’t be surprised if he drew a deal similar to Brandon Knight‘s and Middleton’s of five years and $70 million.

The Verdict

I think the decision has to ultimately factor in how good offensively you think Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo are going to be. If Parker especially becomes a dynamic 25-point per game scorer, I think Robin Lopez better fits what is needed at the center position.

His rim protection and offensive rebounding abilities could be really valuable in a lineup that features Jabari Parker at the 4.

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