Indiana Pacers: How Much of a Role Will Myles Turner Have?

While the Indiana Pacers would’ve been better off not fighting for their playoff lives in March and April, Larry Bird was able to mitigate his frontcourt losses by drafting another power forward/center, Myles Turner.

Heading into July 1, when the Free Agency period begins, the Pacers have eight players coming off the books in some type of manner. Six of them are unrestricted free agents, meaning those players can sign anywhere else they choose without worrying about Indiana matching an offer. Two of them are restricted free agents, where Bird can decide if he wants to bring them back regardless if they ink an offer sheet elsewhere.

Those free agents range from many positions (bold indicates a restricted free agent):

• Lavoy Allen — power forward/center, 17 minutes per game in 63 appearances
• Chris Copeland — small forward/power forward, 16.6 minutes per game in 50 appearances
• Luis Scola — power forward, 20.5 minutes per game in 81 appearances
• Donald Sloan — point guard, 20.9 minutes per game in 53 appearances
• Rodney Stuckey — shooting guard, 26.4 minutes per game in 64 appearances
• C.J. Watson — point guard, 24.9 minutes per game in 57 appearances
• David West — power forward, 28.7 minutes per game in 66 appearances
• Shayne Whittington — power forward/center, 5.4 minutes per game in 20 appearances

Of those eight players, five are known as frontcourt players. It’s almost a foregone conclusion that David West won’t re-sign with the team, considering he opted out of $12.6 million in such a “screw this” way. All through draft week, Bird stated that he was yet to hear any words from West on his decision to either opt in or decline his player option.

As the deadline passed on June 29th, the Pacers still didn’t receive any word from West.  It’s understandable, as West went through a miserable season trying to pick up the scoring load because of Paul George‘s injury rehab.

The clear gap in the frontcourt only points toward two things.  One, Bird and General Manager Kevin Pritchard will have to actively seek big bodies in the free agency market.  Two, the Pacers’ first-round draft pick, Myles Turner, will have to instantly become part of the rotation. Right off the bat, Turner may have to play more minutes than anyone expected he would during his rookie season.

Remember, Turner is the same player that only showed little flashes of his capabilities at Texas.  After being rated the second overall prospect in 2014 — behind only Jahlil Okafor — Turner struggled to find a consistent niche during his freshman season. He found the college game tough to adjust to after ransacking the competition in high school, and that causes a lot of concerns on an even higher level … the monster we call the NBA:

It’s possible that Turner is actually going to have to deal with a win-lose scenario in Indiana.  Being one of the few big men Bird actually liked at the 11th draft position, he is expected to be thrown in the fire early on during his career.  Combine that with the free agency dilemma Indiana faces, and you get a rookie lottery pick that will be encouraged to compete at or above the 20-minute per game mark.

That’s all depending on who Indiana can reach out to and lure in throughout this free agency period.  Even if they want to go that route, and bring in other players that are more experienced and “ready” to contribute … that’s too hard of a task with their current salary cap situation.

Even after West opted out of his large contract, the excellent Tim Donahue estimates the Pacers to be around $10 million under the NBA’s salary cap for the 2015-16 season. That figure was determined after all the necessary rules come into play with the CBA and with an estimated salary cap of $67.1 million.

With just about $10 million to work with, the Pacers also lose the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception ($5.5 million) and the Bi-Annual Exception ($2.1 million) that could’ve been used to sign other players. The reason those are lost?  Indiana would’ve only had those two available if they were over the salary cap. But now, because of West opting out, they are a bit under.

As much as the Pacers admired having Rodney Stuckey carry on the “blue collar” tradition by being an absolute work-horse when healthy last season, trying to re-sign him could chew up some of that $10 million that’s available.

If that’s the case, it will be even harder to pursue other big men in free agency to fill the role of David West.  Bird hasn’t been shy of expressing his appreciation for the intensity and versatile skill that Luis Scola plays with, but at this point it’s skeptical to think that Scola (at age 35) can be the type of reliable piece you need in the modern-style of the NBA.  Teams are getting faster — as the Pacers want to try as well — and it doesn’t exactly click to stay with older talent.

Big men on the free agency market that ring a bell for Indiana include Ed Davis, Tyler Hansbrough, Jordan Hill, Kevin Seraphin, and Jason Smith (just to name a few unrestricted free agents). Even with those available names looming, they are either wanting to re-sign with their former team, asking for too much money than Indiana can afford, or just aren’t very attractive for a replacement.

Thus, Turner may end up being the answer for the time being. As much as that entices him on the surface, since all lottery picks expect to play right away, I’m not on board with Turner being ready for this large of a step.

Turner is already having unusual hardships with his running style (despite having a well-rounded body for a big man). He’s also slower than you would expect just by watching him play. Adding someone with those two main struggles to a team that will sit you on the bench if you don’t defend at a high level and always get back in transition … is a bit scary for Turner.

Nonetheless, Larry Bird may have a master plan.  It’s been clear how much he’s publicly criticized the level of Roy Hibbert‘s play through the last two seasons, to the point where it’s almost like he questions Hibbert’s effort on the court.  The marriage continues between the two, however, since Hibbert opted in to the final year of his ridiculously expensive contract.

With Bird trying to do all he can to deal Hibbert behind the scenes, it could be his plan to have Turner develop into the frontcourt leader over time.

It just makes you wish Turner was ready right out of the gate, so he could help assuage these disastrous turn of events. It was just 13 months ago that Indiana was competing in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Now, they find themselves gambling on a big man that may never have all the tools that Frank Vogel needs in the frontcourt.

Whether or not he’s prepared to make a difference in his first year as a Pacer, Myles Turner now has the task of backing up Bird’s gutsy selection.