NBA Finals: Warriors Have Figured Out The Equation

48 minutes is all that stands in the way of a long, overdue celebration. Although we’re aware of the miserable drought the city of Cleveland has endured for 60+ years (not even winning an NBA title yet), people act as if 40 years is something to sneeze at for Oakland.

Just because Cleveland’s hole is the deepest in American professional sports, doesn’t mean the Golden State Warriors’ fans haven’t suffered on their own.

This is a franchise that hasn’t hoisted a Larry O’Brien trophy since 1975, during the days of Rick Barry averaging 30 points, five rebounds, and five assists in the Finals.  40 years later, Golden State doesn’t have a player like Barry that’s accounting for 30% of his team’s scoring (Stephen Curry is currently scoring 26% of the Warriors’ points in this series).

But, they do have a more balanced, fluid attack than the 1975 Warriors did against Wes Unseld‘s Bullets.  They have more options to weigh with certain lineups, more athletic bodies to throw at the opposition, and the strenuous challenge of trying to limit LeBron James.

Throughout NBA Finals history, it’s arguable that no other team had a harder (individual) task at hand — stopping this 2015 LeBron. Golden State doesn’t have the physical strength to match LeBron in one-on-one coverage, so they use their craftiest defender (Iguodala) and collective team defense to make life hard for him without a supporting cast.

Looking back through the years, there’s really only two other instances that you can definitively say “This team has to really go against an unstoppable force offensively that we simply can’t match up with.”  Those would be the 2000-2002 Lakers, and all of Michael Jordan‘s Finals runs.

Bill Russell (before most of us were born) surely has a place in the argument with his 11 titles, but that would fall under more of the unstoppable defensive player category than offensive. Russell’s offensive skills weren’t nearly as polished as future big men, and it’s not like he had the girth to where you couldn’t defend him one-on-one in the post.

Shaquille O’Neal‘s days as a young, incredible force in the middle for those three Lakers championships were equal to the most inexorable Finals performances of all-time, because his size was too much for Indiana, Philadelphia, and New Jersey to overcome. Having Kobe alongside him was a nice touch, but there was no reason for Phil Jackson to go away from something he knew his opponent couldn’t stop.

During Jordan’s six trips to the Finals, none of his opponents had the necessary defender to make it tough on him.  Sure, there were nights where Jordan struggled shooting or felt sick and out of the game, but it wasn’t necessarily because of the defense being played on him. He was the greatest scoring talent in the world at that point, and the league wasn’t blessed with a Kawhi Leonard-type of defender to make it troublesome on him.

Even with Leonard draped all over LeBron last June, he still put Miami on his back with 57% shooting during the five-game embarrassment, averaging 28.2 points and playing 38 minutes per game.

Now, against Golden State, LeBron knows one thing:  Nobody on the Warriors can single-handedly take away his scoring ability from the post, or even stop him in isolation drives to the rim.  But, he’s also aware that Steve Kerr would be satisfied with him scoring 45-50 each night and never being able to find consistent 3-point threats from his teammates.

The fact that LeBron has been left with an incomplete roster and people still expect him to compete against (and knock off) the second-best team since 1996 … speaks a lot about the culture we live in.  People rarely put things into perspective before speaking anymore, and it shows with every single statement about LeBron “not getting it done” in this series.

He was never projected to make this a seven game series, or win. And, if he was, that was a mistake on the person projecting. It took everything in his power — along with Curry shooting 21.7% from the field in Game 2 — just to get a split in the first two games. Without Curry letting the vexatious defense of Dellavedova rattle him for all of Game 2 and 75% of Game 3, this series would already be over.

There’s a lot of weird stock being put into Cleveland’s Game 2 win and the close finish in Game 1, but those same people fail to realize that Golden State only played halfway up to their potential in those games.

Now, they’ve found the groove.  Now, the Warriors are reminding everyone that although Memphis didn’t have a freak named LeBron, they’re capable of doing the exact same thing they did to the Grizzlies in the second round.  Fear was instilled in the Bay Area after their team fell down 2-1 to Dave Joerger’s gritty frontcourt, and it’d be a lie to say fear wasn’t re-appearing when Golden State stumbled to 2-1 against “The Grit Squad.”

But, we’re seeing the same thing happen. The resiliency of this Golden State unit is exactly why they’re in this position right now. After suffering a horrible Game 7 loss to the Clippers last year in the first round, they bounced back with one of the strongest upticks we can remember in history. They completely bypassed all of the normal Finals struggles, and conference finals stonewalls that teams such as Pacers have recently battled with.

Since the uproarious narrative of Dellavedova becoming the ultimate “Curry-stopper” flooded the media, he’s shot 21-of-40 combined through Games 4 and 5, not including a relentless fourth quarter in Game 3’s loss (6-of-9 overall and 5-of-8 from long-range).

Curry has quickly moved into the driver’s seat of the Finals MVP discussion, regardless of what silly proposition you can make about LeBron winning it on the losing team. If you can seriously look at a player who’s posting 26.2 points and six assists per night while shooting 44.7% from the field and 40.7% from 3-point range on the winning team and not award him the MVP … you’ve lost complete sense.

Curry just became the first player in Finals history to drop 37+ points while nailing at least seven triples in a single game, but the notion is still that LeBron should be awarded the individual recognition if he loses.

Actually, if we were ever going to make a case for a losing player taking home the Finals MVP, it should be this year.

James’ near triple-double average in the Finals (36.6 points, 12.4 boards, and 8.8 assists) screams loudly to his laborious efforts in this series. But, you also have to consider that he’s playing a lot more minutes than he expected to in the Finals.  On a per-36 minute basis, LeBron is scoring 28.8 points, grabbing 9.7 boards, and racking up 6.9 assists.  Even on a per-36 note, his production would always warrant MVP discussion.

Then, throw in the factor of his under-performing teammates (if you even want to say he has a team right now).

Out of the 11 Golden State players seeing the floor during the Finals, the total Player Efficiency Rating from the regular season equals 188.4 (an average of 17.1 per player). Marreese Speights is on the borderline of “consistent minutes,” but I included him because he’s played 16 total minutes.

Cleveland’s current Finals rotation includes eight guys, with only half of them being true NBA players in most people’s eyes. Those eight players accumulated a total PER of 110 during the regular season (13.7 per player).

Taking LeBron’s 25.9 PER out of the equation, he’s dealing with a cast that earned an average PER of 12 during the year.  Taking Curry’s 28 out of the equation, Golden State’s other 10 included have an average PER of 16.  With the league-average for each player being 15.0, it’s not easy to see just how much unfair pressure is being put on LeBron.

Obviously, those team averages would probably pull even (or maybe in Cleveland’s favor) if Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were included in the Finals mix. But, injuries always cost teams a chance at a title. It’s been that way since the NBA existed, we just always end up forgetting about the specifics of previous years.

Comparing LeBron’s current Finals help with what he had last year vs. San Antonio, it only makes you appreciate the Miami teams everyone often criticized for being “old.”

The 2013-14 Heat had 10 rotation players in the Finals last June, with their total regular season PER being 154.3 (an average of 15.4). Taking LeBron’s 29.3 from last season out of the equation, his teammates had an average PER of 13.8 — still almost two marks higher than Cleveland’s current bunch.

In that regard, there was literally no way LeBron should’ve been expected to take home a title this year. Yet, as soon as Atlanta was washed off the Earth in the East Finals, there was still strong belief that Cleveland could overcome the odds.

If this wasn’t the deepest NBA team they’re up against, with an exceptionally intelligent coach that makes proper changes, the Cavaliers may have stood a chance.

If J.R. Smith wasn’t the exemplar of inconsistency and worried more about his variation of scoring rather than what wheels he rolls into the arena on, he’d be a larger help for LeBron.

Smith has shot 19-of-62 from the floor (30.6%) in these five Finals games, but that’s not even the most disgusting part.  Smith has become so 3-point-dependent in the Finals, it’s making him completely predictable for the Warriors’ defense. He’s taken 68% of his total field goals from long-range, and none of them are falling — shooting 26.2% from distance.

He had one electric half in the beginning of Game 5 on Sunday, but missed his last nine attempts from the 3-point arc.  It should probably be noted, though, that Smith never was a versatile player. Still, it’s a bit disturbing that a player can expect to be one-dimensional on the biggest stage possible, while expecting different results. 22 of his last 27 shot attempts are from beyond the arc.

By definition, I guess Smith is purely insane.

Deep down, neither team wanted to celebrate the barrier-breaking trophy on the other team’s home floor. Each franchise wants it to happen in front of its home-crowd. But, you know they’d never admit it. Players always say the right thing these days, and “Any chance we can close this out, is what we want” will always be said.

Even if Golden State does get to celebrate in Cleveland on Tuesday night, it’s going to be an impassioned night.

To not have to go through the traditional ups and downs in the Finals, skipping right ahead to championship winners, will be a crazy feeling for this Warriors bunch.

Stay safe, Oakland. It’s coming.

**All statistical support credited to Basketball-Reference**