Potential Milwaukee Bucks Free Agent Targets: Kyle O’Quinn
By Peter Myhrer
Because of the excitement that the 2015 NBA Draft brings, it’s easy to forget that there’s another way for teams to address positional needs, free agency. It’s especially easy for free agency to be an afterthought for small market teams that rarely make a big splash during the period. A team like the Milwaukee Bucks will almost never attract an established star during free agency, but they can potentially find a future star and they definitely can find an effective NBA player.
Kyle O’Quinn of the Orlando Magic projects to fall into the latter category.
O’Quinn rose to prominence during his senior year in college when his underdog Norfolk State Spartans defeated Missouri in the 2012 NCAA Tournament. In that game, he posted a double-double with 26 points and 14 rebounds to lead the No. 15 seed to a historic upset of No. 2 seeded Missouri.
This performance guaranteed O’Quinn the opportunity to be drafted, but concerns about his production translating against higher competition kept him out of the first round. The Orlando Magic didn’t let him get past their second round pick though (No. 49), and he has proved since to be terrific value at that stage of the draft.
Although he’s been caught up in a crowded Orlando Magic frontcourt for all three of his NBA seasons, O’Quinn has been productive in the minutes he’s out there.
Because he was a four-year college player entering the draft, O’Quinn is already 25 years old. It’s hard to see him expanding his skill set more than he already has a result. Fortunately though, he already is a very versatile and productive player.
Could the Milwaukee Bucks land Kyle O’Quinn in free agency and finally give him the minutes he deserves? Here’s some of the skills he provides and how he would fit in with the team.
Rebounding
Some players need consistent minutes for their production to show up, O’Quinn doesn’t. His rookie year for example, he grabbed 3.7 rebounds per game despite only averaging 11.2 minutes. Just over one of those rebounds was on the offensive end too.
His career defensive rebound percentage is 24.1%, just under the 26.3% that Kevin Love posted with Cleveland this year. That percentage will likely improve as well if he finds a team that will consistently play him 30+ minutes a game.
Defense
Stats don’t show O’Quinn’s defense to be as effective as an elite defender like John Henson, but he’s solid on that end of the floor. An elite defender is often extremely limited on the offensive end and a dominating offensive big man is likely to be a liability on defense. Kyle O’Quinn is sort of the happy medium between these two extremes.
Opposing players are forced to respect O’Quinn’s 7’5″ wingspan and 250 lbs frame when attempting to post up. Opponents shot 2.2% below league average in 2014-15 when guarded by him, and 3.4% below on shots inside of 10 feet.
He probably will never lead the league in blocks or be talked about as an elite rim protector, but he racks up his fair share of them. O’Quinn has a career average of 0.9 blocks per game while only having a career average of 15 minutes per contest.
Scoring
The 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks have made me more focused on a player’s offensive abilities than ever before and this is part of the reason Kyle O’Quinn’s name came to mind for this piece.
On offense, O’Quinn is essentially the player that James Naismith envisioned when he invented the wonderful sport of basketball. The table below explains what I mean by this.
| % of FGA by Distance | FG% by Distance | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 2P | 0-3 | 3-10 | 10-16 | 16 <3 | 3P | 2P | 0-3 | 3-10 | 10-16 | 16 <3 | 3P |
| 2014-15 | .822 | .285 | .202 | .103 | .231 | .178 | .538 | .768 | .490 | .400 | .357 | .279 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/9/2015.
O’Quinn’s field goal percentage correlates perfectly with the basic thought that shots become more difficult as a player shoots from further and further out. That doesn’t mean his attempts decrease as he moves further out though.
His field goal attempts are fairly evenly distributed between the different offensive ranges. Even his least active zone of 10-16 feet out, produces 10.3% of his shots.
The only area that he’s not very efficient from is his 3-point shot. Despite only shooting 27.9% from distance, O’Quinn took 17.8% (43 attempts) of his shots from behind the arc. 43 shots doesn’t seem like a lot, but it’s a decent number of attempts for a guy that only played 16.2 minutes per game.
This affinity for the three is likely a product of being on an experimenting Orlando Magic team. The squad is a few years away from winning and is taking the time to let players try things out.
Fit with the Bucks
The 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks were a team that played Zaza Pachulia 23.7 minutes per game. The way I see it, Kyle O’Quinn can not only fit the role Pachulia played; he can exceed it.
O’Quinn does all of things that Pachulia can do like shoot the midrange, pass out of the post, and body up his man on defense. The biggest difference between the two is O’Quinn’s length which allows him to be a more effective defender than Pachulia as well as a better scorer in the paint. O’Quinn’s shooting touch also extends beyond Zaza Pachulia’s patented elbow jumper which would help stretch the floor.
How Much will it Cost?
Perhaps the most convincing part about Kyle O’Quinn though, is the cheap price tag that he could potentially come at. The Orlando Magic extended a qualifying offer to him, making him a restricted free agent in 2015 and giving the team a chance to match any offer that he receives.
O’Quinn was trending for a relatively nice pay day this summer before his minutes were cut drastically under interim head coach James Borrego. This could benefit the Magic long term if it keeps the offers they have to match low, but it could also benefit a team that is willing to pay slightly more than the Magic want to.
He is expected to get at least $5 million per year, but that number could reasonably go up to the $7-9 million range if a team buys into what he can produce given more minutes.
The Orlando Magic also will have to multitask with forward Tobias Harris‘ restricted free agency happening this summer.
A team with cap space like the Bucks could put some real pressure on the Magic by offering a deal like 4 yr/$32 million to O’Quinn. With Harris expected to command over $10 million per year, The team will likely have to choose between the two if a team offers O’Quinn anything over $5 million a year. The Magic simply have too much young talent to be tying up too much cap space this early in the process.
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