The 31st NBA draft lottery is set to take place on Tuesday, May 19. Fourteen franchises will eagerly watch as their futures potentially hang in the balance.
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The four clubs with the best chance at earning this year’s No. 1 draft selection are the Minnesota Timberwolves (25 percent), the New York Knicks (19.9 percent), the Philadelphia 76ers (15.6 percent) and the Los Angeles Lakers (11.9 percent).
Obviously everybody wants a top pick. However, there is actually a fair amount of historical data that shows lottery success is not a good way to build a champion.
Starting with the basics, only one NBA franchise that has ever won the lottery has gone on to win a title at any point afterwards. The San Antonio Spurs received the No. 1 pick in both 1987 and 1997. Both players they selected, David Robinson and Tim Duncan, helped them win championships. But, the Spurs are the lottery anomaly.
In fact, of the other 28 players chosen with the first pick in the draft since 1985 (the year the lottery began), only three have ever won a title. All three, Shaquille O’Neal, LeBron James and Glenn Robinson (who was a bench player for the 2004-05 champion Spurs) did it with clubs other than the ones that drafted them.
It’s not just the No. 1 picks who’ve failed to bring titles to their original teams–the same applies to the draft’s second, third and fourth selections as well.
In the lottery era, 90 players have been chosen No. 2 through No. 4. Of those 90, only three have won championships with the franchises who picked them. Two of those three, Sean Elliott (Spurs) and Jason Kidd (Dallas Mavericks) were traded away before returning and winning it all several years later.
The third, Darko Milicic, was an insignificant bench player who logged just five minutes in the Finals for the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons.
Over 30 seasons of NBA draft lotteries, 120 players have been taken with top-four picks. Robinson and Duncan are the only two to help lead the club who chose them to the promised land.
Lottery success may bring your squad a great player, but the stats suggest it won’t increase its chances of future titles.
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