San Antonio Spurs: Relax, It’s Only Game 1

The effort to repeat as NBA champions will be harder than expected for the San Antonio Spurs.

Actually, you don’t have to explain to any member of the Spurs just how difficult it is to repeat. Before last June, Tim Duncan and Gregg Popovich had four championship rings, with none of them coming off repeat runs. They operate in a different manner than the Lakers of the 2000’s, or the Bulls of the 1990’s.

The two greatest shooting guards in history developed a pattern for winning in bunches. Three of Kobe Bryant‘s titles came off back-to-back domination, including a three-peat finish in 2002. Michael Jordan strung together his six trophies in two separate three-peat runs, making it impossible for any sane human being to pick against him in the playoffs.

Duncan hasn’t been able to celebrate in consecutive summers. He usually experiences a dramatic mood shift, feeling on cloud nine after raising a banner and then heading home disappointed the following year. In their four years after a championship season — 2000, 2004, 2006, and 2008 — San Antonio has went 23-21 in the playoffs (.523). Those four years resulted in one first round exit, two second round exits, and one West Finals loss. They never even returned to the NBA Finals the year after winning a championship.

It provided a scary insight for what San Antonio could expect this year. After a mediocre 18-12 start heading into Christmas, it seemed to be the theme of a similar story — people were writing off the Spurs, who couldn’t remain healthy with their depth. Crucial bench productivity was missing, along with their most adroit starter in Kawhi Leonard. It didn’t even appear certain that San Antonio would reach the West Playoffs, as missing it would’ve been a first for Duncan.

Rolling into the playoffs with a blistering winning percentage of .826 since March 1, these Spurs knew exactly the task at hand. If a repeat was in the making, it would take three straight road series wins out West. San Antonio failed to grasp home-court against the Clippers, and they wouldn’t have it versus Houston, Memphis, or Golden State — the three strongest threats to face San Antonio during their path.

In their current journey to a repeat title, the Spurs are now 0-1 to begin the trip. Falling to a 15-point defeat on Sunday in Los Angeles, Popovich finally lost a Game 1. He had collected 11 straight series of taking Game 1, but it should be noted that most of those were at home. Since San Antonio never worries about how they start a series, but instead how they end it, they’ll have to make sure nobody walks into AT&T Center and robs them of their own home floor.

This is perhaps the craziest occurrence of the first round, ever:  If there’s a 15-point blowout in the first game of any series, you never see anybody picking the other team to win Game 2. In this series, however, that’s exactly how tight of a matchup we’ve been gifted.

Regardless of how vigorous or convincing the Clippers’ performance was during Game 1, San Antonio has worked hard enough through the years to earn something valuable. They have the benefit of the doubt — by majority of folks picking this series — that a quick inversion can happen for Wednesday’s Game 2. Los Angeles may not believe it’s fair, and Doc Rivers may still feel as if his team’s accomplishments are being diminished. But, that’s what happens when you draw the defending NBA champs as a first round matchup.

There’s a strong reason why San Antonio should have confidence in a rapid turnaround. Their play out of the gate on Sunday was everything but normal. It was a bit bizarre, with the Spurs playing an unusually terrible offensive game. They weren’t fully in sync with defensive rotations, especially on Chris Paul, and it allowed the Clippers to run away with a double-digit lead after the third quarter.

Typically, if you have a powerful offensive attack of your own, you’re able to match other electric offenses. When times get tough defensively and you start breaking down, at least you have strong weapons of your own that can dig you out of a hole.

For the Spurs, even the offensive dynamics weren’t clicking. You literally watched a team struggle on both ends of the court, after finishing in the top 10 of both offensive rating (106.2) and defensive rating (99.6) this season. Out of all five years San Antonio reached the Finals, their average ranking in defensive rating has been 2.6.  I don’t think people quite understand how impressive that is, over a five-season sample size. Never in the Duncan era have the Spurs played in the Finals being ranked lower than 3rd overall defensively.

They’ll snap back into the defensive mindset, without any problem.

If you’ve been paying attention to this outlandish Spurs season all year, you’d also believe the offense has few worries or concerns moving forward.

On Sunday, we witnessed somewhat of an aberration.  San Antonio only shot 36.6% from the field during Game 1, while turning over the ball 15 times. In the last three years (playoffs included), Popovich has only seen that combination twice.  Just two times … in three years.

In those three years (from 2012-13 to 2014-15), the Spurs have played a total of 291 games, with their Finals runs included.  Which means:  Shooting 36.6% or below, with at least 15 turnovers only happened in 0.6% of those 291 games.  If you want to talk about a rarity, or something that won’t happen to this team again, point directly at Sunday’s effort.

With the generous amount of rest these teams have between Sunday and the next game, San Antonio has more than enough time to figure out the formula.  The Clippers defended better in Game 1 than they have all season long, and Popovich acknowledged it:

"“Perimeter wise, [the Clippers] denied passing lanes, they got up into us,” Popovich said. “Their closeouts on our threes, all that sort of thing, was better than our offense. That was the bottom line from the game.”"

While the lengthy rest gives San Antonio the preparation time, it also may just give a bigger advantage to Los Angeles.

Rivers is well aware that his bench is dreadful and grisly more times than not, and that’s exactly why he’s been forced to play his starters heavy minutes. The extended time between Games 1 and 2 will only help the Clippers’ use of their starting five carry over for another burdensome load.

Since March 1, the Clippers’ bench has ranked 27th overall in net rating, at -9.7 per 100 possessions. It’s been better than only the Lakers, Knicks, and Bucks’ bench units, and there’s no other championship contender in the bottom-10.  If you do consider the Clippers as a contender, they’re the only one ranked 20th or below. In true shooting percentage, Los Angeles’ bench has only shot 48.8% from the floor since March 1 — the 6th worst in the whole league during that span.

It’s one of the reasons there was so much Chris Paul and Blake Griffin destruction on Sunday. The Clippers had to stick with their starters, and neglect the bench.

Rivers played his starters a combined 187 minutes (an average of 37.4), compared to Popovich playing his starters a combined 124 minutes. Now, Tiago Splitter‘s limited minutes had a role in that total being lower, but it was obvious that Rivers was sticking with his starters the whole way through. The minutes Chris Paul rested were mainly due to the Hack-a-Jordan nonsense, in which Paul had no use on the floor.

San Antonio’s bench tallied 62 more combined minutes than the Clippers’ bench, as Jamal Crawford was the only positive offensive advantage Rivers could get out of his second unit.

Since it’s the first round, it’s not a given that Los Angeles’ starters will get worn down in a hurry. Other games around the league have to be played, therefore scheduling is in the Clippers’ favor here. However, if this series is extended into the crucial stages of Games 6 or 7, Rivers will have a ton of pressure on his hands. He may not be able to run his starters into the ground once the competition picks up.

The Spurs have a few things going for them, even after the loss.

They’re the deeper team, and history says their abysmal performance in Game 1 isn’t set to repeat any time soon.

**All statistical support credited to NBA.com/Stats and Basketball-Reference**