ACC: Will Justin Anderson Be A First-Round Pick?

By Andrew Snyder | Apr 19, 2015

Mar 20, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Justin Anderson (1) during the second half against the Belmont Bruins in the second round of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at Time Warner Cable Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports /

It was a bittersweet season for Justin Anderson and Virginia. The year started with high expectations and until a loss to Duke, they had been living up to those expectations. The Cavs started the season 19-0 before that loss to the Blue Devils and Anderson was having the best season of his three-year college career.

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Then all that momentum came to a halt.

In a February win over Louisville, Anderson suffered a hand injury. The injury was expected to keep him out of action until the final game of the regular season. As he was preparing to play in that final game, again against Louisville, he discovered that he would need an appendectomy.

That procedure kept him out until the ACC tournament. Over two games he failed to score and Virginia was bounced in the semifinals by North Carolina. Virginia drew a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament, and the hope was that Anderson could find his form in their second-round game against No. 15 seed Belmont.

Initially that seemed to be the case. Anderson scored 15 points on 4-for-6 shooting and looked close to the pre-injury version of himself that looked like an All-American candidate. Sadly, it would not last. A 2-for-7, eight-point game in the round of 32 against Michigan State would be Anderson’s final collegiate game, and Virginia would go home well short of their Final Four goal.

The injury and the surgery derailed Anderson’s junior campaign and led many to believe that he would return to Charlottesville for his senior season. Anderson, however, has decided to forego his final season of eligibility and declare for June’s NBA Draft.

This is a good decision for a variety of reasons. The rush to criticize young basketball players for leaving school early has gotten a bit ridiculous so I’m certainly not here to do that. I applaud Anderson’s choice and think he will make an excellent NBA player.

But, where will he get drafted?

The injury woes have thrown a wrench into his draft stock. In early February I would have argued that Anderson was a lock to get picked somewhere between 15th and 25th overall. Now, things are not as clear.

At 6-foot-6 Anderson has the size to play either shooting guard or small forward at the next level. He’s also an exceptional athlete, an attribute that showed itself in the form of thunderous dunks and jaw-dropping chase down blocks.

Offensively he is quick off the dribble and is a decent finisher at the rim, but three-point shooting is where he really improved this season. Tireless offseason practice and a mechanical adjustment helped him raise his three-point shooting percentage from 29.4 percent his sophomore year to 45.2 percent this season.

That significant increase in percentage was particularly impressive when you also notice that Anderson increased his volume from 2.8 attempts per game to four attempts per game.

Anderson looks the part of an NBA player, but there are still a few question marks, as there are with any incoming prospect. First, you have to wonder if this improvement in his three-point shooting is here to stay.

His 724 minutes isn’t a small sample size, and the shot does look to be mechanically sound, but plenty of players shoot the ball well from outside in college then struggle to make three-pointers at a farther distance in the NBA. Adam Morrison and Nik Stauskas come to mind.

Both great shooters that took some time to adjust to the NBA’s deeper three-point line, or in Morrison’s case, never adjusted.

There’s also the adjustment to the 24-second shot clock to consider. Anderson played at Virginia, a team that slows down the pace and grinds each possession to a halt. Will the transition to a league that requires quicker decision making be difficult for Anderson? On the other hand, playing in a more up-tempo offense may unleash Anderson’s game rather than stifle it.

Draft Express has Anderson 31st overall, the first pick in the second round, while Sam Vecenie of CBS Sports has him staying in the first round at 25th overall.

From watching him play most of the season, it is clear to me that Anderson is a first-round talent. His combination of defensive ability, athleticism, and shooting are all the ingredients that make up an elite wing player in the modern NBA.

If he can sneak into the tail end of the first round and land on a team like the Spurs where he can settle in as a role player his first few seasons that would be ideal.

Even if he falls to the second round, where contracts are not guaranteed, I have a hard time imagining Anderson failing to secure a roster spot. At the very least, someone will be captivated enough by his raw ability to keep around for a few seasons.

Next: 30 Greatest Duke Players of All-Time

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