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Stats Suggest Memphis Grizzlies No Longer A Contender In West

By Mark Vandeusen

Apr 10, 2015; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) talks with guard Nick Calathes (12) during the second half against the Utah Jazz at EnergySolutions Arena. Memphis won 89-88. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 10, 2015; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) talks with guard Nick Calathes (12) during the second half against the Utah Jazz at EnergySolutions Arena. Memphis won 89-88. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports /
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On Feb. 24, the Memphis Grizzlies were 41-14.  They had the third-best record in the NBA, and were just 3.5 games behind the Golden State Warriors for the top spot in the Western Conference.  In second place in the West, Memphis owned a comfortable 3.5-game lead over the No. 3 Houston Rockets.

The Grizzlies were holding their opponents to a league-low 95.5 points per game, while averaging 100.3 themselves.

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Fast forward to Monday night.  Memphis was torched by the Warriors, trailing by as many as 32 points late in the third quarter (a garbage-time rally led to a deceiving final score of 111-107).  The game meant nothing to Golden State, which had long since locked up home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.

On the other hand, it meant everything to the Grizzlies, who entered their second-to-last game of the season tied with three other West clubs in the loss column with 26.  A win would’ve kept alive its hopes for a Southwest Division title and a No. 2 seed in the playoffs, but the defeat left Memphis in sixth place in the conference at 54-27.

After playing nearly .750 ball for their first 55 games, the Grizzlies are .500 (13-13) in their last 26.

What happened?

Memphis’ defense is still holding strong, allowing just 94.0 PPG since February 24.  The offense, however, is a different story.  Through the first two-thirds of the season, the Grizzlies 100.3 PPG average ranked 14th in the NBA.  Combined with the league’s best scoring defense, that was a very solid number.

But, over the team’s past 26 contests, it has put up just 94.2 PPG–28th overall in that time.  What accounts for Memphis’ 6.1 PPG drop in scoring?

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    • The club’s shooting accuracy has dipped slightly, from 46 percent to 45.3 percent, but its three-point shooting number has held steady at 34 percent.  The Grizzlies free-throw percentage has fallen off a bit, from 77.8 to 76.0.  They are also attempting 2.9 fewer foul shots per game, and connecting on 2.6 fewer on average.

    Memphis’ rebounding and assists numbers have each dropped as well.  Its rebounding average is down from 43.1 to 41.1, while its assists per game slipped from 22.0 to 21.4.

    The Grizzlies are also turning the ball over 1.7 more times a night on average, 12.8 to 14.5.  As a result of the decreased rebounding and increased number of turnovers, Memphis is attempting 2.6 fewer field goals per game after February 24 than it was before.  Its 80.8 attempts per contest over the last eight weeks is the fourth-lowest average in the NBA.

    In turn, the Grizzlies are also connecting on 1.6 fewer field goals per game than they were before (38.3 to 36.7).

    The combination of all of these numbers helps explain Memphis’ overall drop in point differential, from a plus-4.8 to a minus-0.4.

    Like his team as a whole, center Marc Gasol has seen his offensive numbers decline.  On February 24, Gasol was averaging 18.2 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game.  In his next 24 outings, Gasol’s production sunk to 15.5 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.4 blocks.

    The Grizzlies have one game remaining, against an Indiana Pacers squad that recently welcomed back All-Star Paul George and will likely be fighting to make the playoffs.  There’s a very real chance that Memphis, the team that appeared in control of the West’s No. 2 position for most of the season, will limp into the playoffs as a sixth seed.

    Next: Best and Worst NBA Teams Since the All-Star Break

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