San Antonio Spurs: Classic Fire Heading Into Postseason

More than any other year in Gregg Popovich’s 19-year tenure with the San Antonio Spurs, this one has been the most obscure.

Even during the 1996-97 season, when only 17 wins helped them receive Tim Duncan in the ’97 draft lottery, there was a clear understanding of the team’s direction. They didn’t have title aspirations with David Robinson sidelined by injury, and there weren’t any questions of whether or not they could contend.

Every season after Duncan fell into their lap, San Antonio won at least 50 games, with the only exception being the 1998-99 lockout season. During that 50-game schedule, Popovich won 37 games, which put him on pace for 61 wins had they extended it to 82 possible games.

Throughout the 2014-15 journey, fresh off a fifth championship, the Spurs decided to give their fans a little bit of fear. Leading up to the All-Star break, their erratic performances and inconsistent effort left everyone confused. Was this the end of the deep playoff runs? Was Manu Ginobili able to transform from playing atrociously at the beginning of the year, to the fourth-quarter demon we experienced in the playoffs last year?  Was Tony Parker able to fight off hamstring and ankle troubles that’s hindered his ability all year?

A handful of problems left viewers apprehensive about the Spurs’ chances to repeat.

In spite of the down year and being in the lower portion of the Western Conference playoff bracket, San Antonio notched another season of winning at least 60% of their games, and they’ve quietly stormed through the West since the beginning of March.

Everything is clicking at the perfect time, as Popovich didn’t have to worry about his team wasting all their energy in the winter months of the schedule. Whenever you’re aware that age is catching up to your team, it’s beyond pointless to step on the pedal during November or December. In the West, there’s already the “special eight” that was basically locked in the playoffs before the year started — therefore, you’re going to face the same, tough competition regardless of what seed you land. The Spurs’ hidden philosophy this year has been to lay back, fall into the 6-8 seed range, and start pouncing on opponents after 50% of the year had been played.

Literally, the only benefit you receive from being powerful in the regular season out West is that you’ll secure home-court advantage throughout every series. Otherwise, compare it to this season’s Warriors. Steve Kerr has them ready to win 66+ games, but they’ll still draw Oklahoma City/New Orleans in the first round, followed by either Portland or the Clippers in the second round. In the East, however, the level of competition gets easier with the higher seed you achieve. It’s not the case out West, because your entire path will be an onslaught.

With that idea in mind, San Antonio realized it served zero purpose to plow through the early parts of the season. As long as you conquer the last two months of the year, ensure you’re not out of the playoffs, and get everyone off the injured list, you’ll be ready for the West playoffs — regardless of what seed you have. That was a reality in the 2012-13 postseason, when Golden State (six seed) knocked off Denver (three seed) in the first round. It’s because Mark Jackson had those Warriors grooving by the time mid-April rolled around, and it didn’t matter if they had to win games on the road.

With the Spurs, there’s no other team out West more capable of stealing a series without home-court advantage. While they didn’t have to worry about it last year (Popovich claimed the No. 1 seed), San Antonio was still capable of winning crucial road games at the perfect time. Game 6 of the West Finals in Oklahoma City, which went to overtime, was a test they survived. Games 3 and 4 in Miami for the Finals were bloodbaths, with the Spurs winning both by a combined total of 40 points.

Road Struggles?

The concern around San Antonio has been their inability to seal the deal on the road.

After an imperative year on the road in 2013-14, people expected a good chunk of their wins to come away from home this time around, too. Last year, the title-winning Spurs collected 48.4% of their total wins while on the road, by going 30-11. It was by far the highest mark in the league, and it set them up for a load of confidence if they indeed lost home-court in a series. One season later, the Spurs are just 21-18 on the road, accounting for 40.4% of their wins — much lower than expected.

In terms of the final outcome, San Antonio has barely been above .500 on the road, while blazing at home. However, it’s a testament to how grueling the West is, because most of their road losses have been marginal.

While they haven’t closed the deal as much as Popovich would like, they’ve actually been exceptional on the road in one way.

Defensively speaking, there’s been little to no issues with their play transferring over from the AT&T Center to opposing venues. All season, the Spurs have held opponents to 99 points per 100 possessions on the road (1st overall). As crazy as it may sound, they’re better defensively on the road this year.  It’s neck and neck with the Warriors’ defense away from Oracle Arena (99.4), and that’s extremely telling when you consider Golden State is seven games better than San Antonio on the road.

For the first three months of the season, Popovich wasn’t able to get offensive consistency while traveling. But, if there’s area he would choose to struggle with during meaningless months, it’s the offense. Let the defensive effort slip at any point during the year, and the problems start kicking in.

If anything is going to be rectifiable for a championship contender in the postseason, it’s an offensive system. Once a defense bends and eventually breaks, it’s harder to get that strength back than it is to knock down shots.

Therefore, the Spurs were always aware of how to stay in the hunt. Regardless if Popovich claimed this was the worst shooting year he’s experienced in a long time, staying afloat in the West is accredited to their stingy defensive principles.

For the year, they’ve forced opponents into an effective field goal percentage of just 48.1% while playing on the road — the third-lowest in the NBA, behind Chicago and Golden State. Since the theory behind effective field goals is that 3-pointers are nearly doubled in value compared to 2-pointers, it shows that San Antonio does a remarkable job forcing contested 3’s, still has superb rotation defense, and has the ability to get stops at the rim when penetrators reach the paint.

The regeneration of the Spurs this year has been a quiet story out West. They very easily could’ve fallen out of the playoff mix and called it a career for the Big 3 — allowing both New Orleans and Oklahoma City to clinch a berth — but they didn’t. In the same conference where you have five MVP candidates duking it out nightly (Curry, Harden, Paul, Westbrook, Davis), the hottest group since March has been the reigning champs.

Since March 1, no team has been more balanced, untamed, or fixated than San Antonio. With the league’s best record in that span (19-3), Kawhi Leonard‘s timely surge has launched the Spurs to a Net Rating of +15.3 — unheard of for over a full month of games. The Warriors, which have the second-highest rating since March 1, have leveled out at +10.9.

All of a sudden, Pop is watching his guys operate stronger on offense, and the floor is being spread with knockdown threats more than it was before the All-Star break. From all areas on the floor, there’s been no slowing down this team, destined to pull closer to a third straight NBA Finals ticket. Everyone has been clicking, as San Antonio owns the highest true shooting percentage (59.1%) and highest PIE rating (59.6) since March 1. PIE generally estimates a player or team’s contributions to a single game, and the Spurs’ average over the last 21 matchups is a full three points higher than Golden State’s (56.6).

Stabilizing the Offense

Another major concept that’s allowed San Antonio to take control of the season — once injuries healed and everyone was back in the rotation — is their parity on offense. Having the perfect balance in what type of shots you take, while also having the right personnel to be efficient, is a top factor in determining your worth. In the West, it never hurts to diversify yourself, and not become too predictable.

In 79 games, these Spurs have attempted 6,621 field goals.  1,617 of them have come from the mid-range area, which account for 24.4% of their shot distribution.  For comparison, the team most resistant to mid-range shots (Houston) has taken just 10.6% of their shots from mid-range.  New York, the one most trigger-happy from that area, have tallied a usage of 35.9% of their offense from mid-range.  The average between Houston’s 10.6% and New York’s 35.9% is a percentage of 23.3 — approximately in the same neighborhood as the Spurs’ figure.

Not overloading your team with mid-range shots is an important key to winning in this modern league. Back then, you could get away with it. But now, the top four teams in total mid-range attempts have a combined record of 96-216 (.308) — a disgusting winning percentage.  Meanwhile, you don’t necessarily want to cut yourself completely off from a semi-valuable shot (the mid-ranger) like the Rockets do.  Last April, Portland illustrated that it’s much easier to knock off a team that abandons the mid-ranger, which was Houston, than it is to dethrone a team that balances itself accordingly (Blazers lost to Spurs in five games after they knocked off Houston).

In actuality, it’s probably better for a team to encumber its offense with 3-point attempts than it is for the mid-range game.  Times have changed from the years prior to 2010, where the NBA seemed to be more paint-driven, a bit slower, and without revolutionary offenses we see today. Of course, the Steve Nash Suns changed the game completely, but they were a major outlier.  Now, we see a handful of teams with the same philosophy, overwhelming you with long-range bombs.

During this outragous season, the Rockets have attempted 2,572 shots from 3-point range, which became an NBA single-season record. It’s made up 39.4% of their offense.  The Texas champions in San Antonio, though, have only taken 1,801 shots from outside, which makes up 27.2% of their offense.

In essence, balance has meant everything for Popovich.  Too much of something is enough to get you in trouble.  Too little of something only takes away crucial weapons for your team to employ. Houston’s difference in 3-point density and mid-range density is 28.8%, which is actually a number that should be lower.  The Spurs, on the other hand, have found the best middle-ground. Their difference is just 2.8%, meaning they don’t go to extremes with either the 3-pointer or mid-range attack.

It’s just beautiful basketball, superior coaching, and hard-boiled defense that makes up the 2014-15 Spurs.  While it’s borderline impossible to agree that they’re better than the championship run last year, it’s also wrong to say they aren’t among the favorites.

The league may just have to deal with the “old” and “washed up” guys for another spellbinding title chase.

**All statistical support credited to NBA.com/Stats**