With four teams remaining in the 2015 NCAA Tournament, two of those schools have assertive freshmen looking to claim the No. 1 overall draft position. Amazingly, both of those are 6-11 centers, although the term “big man” is proper because we aren’t sure if they can develop into power forwards in the future.
Karl-Anthony Towns (Kentucky) and Jahlil Okafor (Duke) are on opposite sides of the tournament bracket, but their sights are set on the same thing: Continuing to dominate on the pro level, after they finish up their one-and-done season in college. It’s actually electrifying that they could square off in the National Title game next Monday, but both the Wildcats and Blue Devils have obstacles to overcome before that idea creeps into their minds.
As we anticipate a tight battle for the No. 1 overall selection in the 2015 NBA Draft, I broke down the analytical stance on who I would favor.
Today, I decided to chat with a fellow writer about each’s draft stock. Brandon Curry, who covers the Indiana Pacers for Indiana Sports Report, joins me today in an email back-and-forth about the issue — Towns vs. Okafor. While Curry is one of the most knowledgeable writers I’ve met when it comes to the Kentucky Wildcats and college basketball, he also has a keen eye about needs on the pro level.
Here’s our conversation, and exactly who both of us would lean towards this June, when two general managers will fall into a fortunate situation. Both centers have valuable traits, and you rarely see players with Okafor or Towns’ individual skill-sets. Let’s make the pick:
Shane: Brandon,
Thanks for taking your time to discuss these possible draft selections. I understand you’re very captivated by any type of basketball, whether it’s played on the college or professional level. Closely following the Kentucky Wildcats, though, it’s not hard to imagine you’ve been evaluating their play more attentively this year.
As it pertains to top draft prospects, one Kentucky freshman that has a real shot at the No. 1 slot is Karl-Anthony Towns. Let’s stick on him for a moment, before Duke’s candidate gets his share. In your eyes, what are Towns’ biggest strengths and weaknesses when you envision a coach throwing him into an NBA offense? (Wow, that’s just six months away)
Brandon: I would assume Towns’ versatility is the biggest reason why you’re seeing more reports about NBA front offices preferring him over Okafor.
He’s a legitimate 6-11, can play either the 4 or 5 and can be used in multiple offenses. If your team has a traditional back-to-the-basket power forward, Towns can step in at the the 5, protect the rim (7-3 wingspan) and provide the required spacing — his 81 percent free-throw shooting suggests he has the potential to be solid from 18 feet or further.
On the other hand, if your team employs a stretch 4, Towns can give the punch down low — like we saw Saturday against Notre Dame — while anchoring your defense on the other end. Honestly, I think he’ll eventually be deadly in the pick-and-roll game. He’s quick on his feet for his size, has good hands and even better vision. His passing ability out of double teams or catching after setting a screen might be the most underrated part about his game. We just don’t see him in the pick-and-roll game much at Kentucky, because he’s able to dominate smaller players at the college level.
His jumper will eventually tell us how high his ceiling will be. Some suggest he’ll be able to step outside the 3-point line at some point. We’ll see about that, but if he’s able to knock down that mid-range jumper consistently (a la David West), then that will be enough. If he is able to develop a 3-point shot, or at least give the threat of knocking them down at around a 35 percent clip, then he’s a match-up nightmare. I wouldn’t necessarily call these weaknesses, but improving the jumper and tightening his defensive awareness to avoid foul trouble that has plagued him at times will be big.
Shane: Absolutely, and it’s absurd to think that Towns wasn’t even Kentucky’s top recruit. Trey Lyles was the sixth overall freshman in this class, but Towns (9th) has won over many NBA executives even by playing just 20.7 minutes on average.
It may sound ludicrous, but looking back at Anthony Davis in the 2011-12 Kentucky season, did anyone truly expect that he would blossom into the league’s biggest nightmare by 2014? I would say no, because it generally takes time to develop. Well, with Towns, I see someone that can be destructive very quickly, in his own unique way. He obviously didn’t grow up as a guard like Davis did, so those kind of traits aren’t going to be there. But, Towns has the ideal size that I would look for in any NBA center or power forward — he’s put on a good amount of bulk since October, and it’s showing off with the killer post-play he illustrated vs. Notre Dame.
The mid-range jumper is the greatest aspect to me, when it comes to how dominant he’ll be. I believe the defense will speak for itself, because he’s one of the top two or three defenders on the low block in the country. Those guys don’t typically fail, or slip-up defensively in the NBA. In college, Anthony Davis’ defensive box plus-minus (DBPM) was 10.8, and he’s right in the mix for the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2015. Towns currently owns a defensive box plus-minus of 11.1, and he still has a lot of room for improvement.
Since we both concur that Towns could be the best long-term fix for any NBA lottery team, which one or two potential franchises do you think would benefit the most from Towns, or love him the most? I did see you tweeting about this last week.
Brandon: My tweets were about who I personally thought would take Towns (or Okafor) if they received the No. 1 pick. It was educated guessing on my part. I basically looked at recent team-building strategy and the general approach to the game the lottery teams take. I came to the conclusion that the Knicks, Timberwolves, Lakers, Kings, and Nuggets would take Okafor, while teams like the 76ers, Magic, Pistons, Hornets, Pacers, and Hawks (pick via Brooklyn) would prefer Towns. But again, that’s pure speculation on my part.
I believe any team at the top of the lottery based off the current standings would love Towns. The Knicks need talent. Period. I could see him being a good fit next to Julius Randle in Los Angeles. Does Philadelphia take a third big and look to trade one?
Two teams that really intrigue me when it comes to Towns, though, are Minnesota and Atlanta, although the Hawks would be a long shot. With the Wolves it’s simple — you would be pairing Towns with Andrew Wiggins. That’s two potential franchise guys right there. I’m not the biggest fan of Flip Saunders, but it’s difficult to deny how great a Towns-Wiggins pairing could possibly be. When it comes to Atlanta, as a fan of great basketball first and foremost, you have to think Towns and Horford would wreck opposing front courts, especially if Towns develops an outside shot.
It’s a bit scary knowing the Hawks could get a top pick. But hey, great teams are good for the league.
Shane: It’s incomprehensible how much Atlanta’s head coach, Mike Budenholzer, would help bring Towns’ already solid offensive presence into one that’s practically unguardable. What makes that situation inch toward reality is the fact that Paul Millsap is an unrestricted free agent this summer (July 2015). While I expect them to re-sign him, it has to be creeping into the Hawks’ minds that, if the Nets DID win the lottery, they could just start grooming a young guy for the years to come. But, that’s all just a pipe dream that doesn’t seem likely to happen.
In Okafor’s case, I actually feel bad for the criticism he’s had to take this season for his defensive skill. Sure, at the beginning of the season, everyone was yelping that he’s “a lock for the first pick,” but then people started analyzing his defensive presence. With Duke having so much offensive power in their backcourt and with Okafor up front, they haven’t necessarily had to employ a powerful defense. After all, when you’re 3rd overall in the nation in field goal percentage (50.2), your team is generally winning enough games anyway.
That being said, is there really any truth to Okafor being “terrible” defensively? After watching film on him, he seems to be a step behind, or a second or two too slow with his reaction time on defensive rotations. He’s not even half the shot-blocker Towns is, and I actually credit that to his lack of aggression. He spends so much energy on offense, that it seems he uses some defensive possessions to be a bystander. Also, considering the fact that Okafor doesn’t foul a lot, I honestly feel as if NBA GM’s will look at Towns’ fouls and favor him because he’s working his tail off. Fouls won’t be a huge problem when he enters the NBA and is allowed five, along with being taught more discipline.
Brandon: I believe I was in the minority earlier this season when it came to Towns vs. Okafor — in terms of who should be the No. 1 pick. At the time I found it almost laughable that so many people were locking in Okafor as the guy and weren’t considering anyone else. It probably helped that I had watched a significant more amount of Kentucky basketball compared to Duke, but still, so many were convinced in November that Okafor would be the No. 1 pick.
People in the basketball world tend to still crave that old-school big man. You know, come down the floor, dump it in, let him go to work. For a lot of people — including some making decisions for pro clubs — that’s what they grew up with or at least that’s what their father grew up with and it was passed down. But, I think more and more people are able to see what it takes to win in today’s NBA and, to put it simply, that’s being able to play on both ends of the floor.
Okafor certainly has issues on the defensive end. There’s no way around it. His lateral movement just isn’t up to par when comparing him to Towns and it costs him in pick-and-roll coverage. He’s not much of a shot blocker, which is a bit surprising; Although I wouldn’t call him a great athlete, he’s not bolted to the ground and he has a massive 7-5 wingspan. On top of problems on defense, he rarely shoots outside of 10 feet and doesn’t distribute the ball well when forced to pass out of the post.
If this was 1995 and not 2015, I don’t think Towns vs. Okafor would be a discussion. Okafor would be the pick and he would probably play well in that era.
But today’s game (when factoring in the rule changes) revolves around spacing the floor, moving the ball, and defending the pick-and-roll — which aren’t Okafor’s strengths. With that being said, his skill around the basket and his overall size are still valuable tools. I’m sure there are teams that see that and believe they can fix his defensive shortcomings and jumper by giving him the proper professional schooling that so many other young players entering the league often need anyways.
However, Towns’ ceiling is much higher to me, and that’s why I would take him first overall if I had the pick.
Shane: Thanks, I really appreciate your input, Brandon. Continue to watch Kentucky storm toward 40-0, which is something I didn’t believe I would see in my lifetime.