Heading into April, the 2015 NBA Draft is less than three months away. Who should have the advantage for the top overall pick?
Every sport has them. Those frenetic, impatient fans that label a certain player the “automatic No. 1 pick” in an upcoming draft, before the season completely ends. It rarely happens in college football, because there is no such thing as the one-and-done quandary.
The country’s most enshrined event — NCAA basketball — happens to allow 19-year-olds to enter the NBA draft immediately after their freshman season, which still irks old-fashioned folks. Since the rule was installed in 2006-07, we’ve started hearing the chatter every October. Before anyone sees the top freshman recruit play meaningful minutes (against top competition), he’s already presented as the clear-cut No. 1 pick. Trust me, there’s no telling people otherwise after they watch a couple high-school YouTube highlights.
In October 2014, that player with all the hysteria and promotion was Jahlil Okafor.
Duke was able to land the 6-11 center to finalize their wicked recruiting class, which included
. Mike Krzyzewski had a good idea of what he was getting with Okafor, but even he probably didn’t expect him to be
this
polished offensively. He would be blessed with top-notch footwork in the post, unmatched creativity in back-to-the-basket situations, and a soft touch from both blocks, with a terrific sense of how to use the glass.
As the weeks rolled on, Okafor would only solidify everyone’s proclamation of him on the offensive end. As December finished, he had 12 shining games, shooting 98-of-143 (68.5%) in those matchups. There were skeptics, including myself, that weren’t sure if he could keep the productivity flowing into February and March.
Okafor continued to work more aggressively on one aspect of his game (offense), and impress NBA scouts on his strongest side of the court. Since he never had any dazzling skills on defense, Okafor compiled all the offensive excellence possible to end the season. Listen, it’s the smart thing to do — this era of basketball is so resolute on high-scoring, efficient styles of play … every impressive thing a player does on offense is likely more memorable than their defensive stops.
In 35 games, Okafor has made a case for his draft stock that any NBA executive (young or experienced) would have a difficult time arguing against. If Duke’s season ended today, he would become the first freshman in NCAA history to score at least 620 points while shooting 67.4% from the field. Now, it’s important to realize this current database only goes back to the 1997-98 season (17 years).
So, it’s worth digging deeper to see how other transcendent big men measured up to this level as freshmen:
- 1981-82, Patrick Ewing: 469 points scored, 63.1% field goals
- 1982-83, Karl Malone: 586 points scored, 58.2% field goals
- 1990-91, Shaquille O’Neal: 774 points scored, 62.8% field goals
- 1966-67, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 870 points scored, 66.7% field goals
- 1971-72, Bill Walton: 633 points scored, 64% field goals
Kareem’s first season at UCLA was probably more impressive, but I’m not sure if the level of defense in the mid-60’s equates to the intensity of today’s game. I would bet not.
In 1983-84, there was one player who accomplished the exact same feat Okafor did this year (620 points on 67.4% shooting). His name was Hakeem Olajuwon, widely regarded as the deadliest low-post scorer in the game’s history.
The difference? Olajuwon managed to have that type of season during his junior year at Houston. Okafor is just a kid, experiencing his first (and only) dosage of ACC Competition. Is it a coincidence that Okafor breaks down footage, step by step, of Olajuwon mastering the post? No. He wants to mold into the same, traditional center everyone grew up loving in the 80’s and 90’s.
However, Olajuwon was known for his defense just as much as his flamboyant footwork. That’s an area we haven’t seen Okafor commit to with the same effort and emotion. In order to formulate the full comparison when you admire legendary centers, you have to mirror the entire package. Okafor doesn’t seem as versatile, when you consider the other objective of the game: Getting consistent stops.
There’s been one other freshman phenom to live up to both hypes, though …
In a Different Town
John Calipari expected to have another star-driven roster this season (signing three top 20 freshmen). He also expected to make amends for the lackluster regular season Kentucky went through in 2013-14 — Julius Randle‘s unit only won 24 games before the tournament, opposed to the 30-win average with the clubs led by John Wall, Brandon Knight, and Anthony Davis.
Calipari also noticed that he could have a leading defensive squad heading into the year. After all, their height alone makes it daunting to enter the paint against them. The average height of Kentucky’s major rotation players is 6.62 feet, while the average height of the Minnesota Timberwolves’ rotation players is 6.68 feet. It’s that larger than life for most college opponents, glaring at the trees.
The most formidable presence of Kentucky’s defense has been 19-year-old Karl-Anthony Towns. At a first glance, Towns has been the most dangerous force on a defense that’s allowed opponents to shoot just 35.2% from the field (1st overall).
With Towns as one of the anchors, the Wildcats have also forced their opponents into a terrible offensive rating of 83.5. If you’re not aware of advanced analytics, it means that Kentucky’s opponents have only averaged 83.5 points per 100 possessions — giving the Cats the best figure in the country, 3.7 points less than Virginia’s opponents.
On an individual level, it’s impossible to find a lottery-bound player with the same impact as Towns. For the sake of the argument, I’ll include Okafor and Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminski in the advanced breakdown: Click image for full table
- For terminology, “Box Plus/Minus” is an estimate of the offensive or defensive points per 100 possessions a player contributed, above a league-average player.
- In any case, “Net Rating” is always any offensive rating MINUS a defensive rating. You want that figure to be large.
- Total Box Plus/Minus is simply the offensive plus/minus PLUS the defensive plus/minus. Again, the larger the better.
As you can see above, Okafor is last (of the three mentioned) in every single defensive aspect … with Towns leading the pack. Okafor is also last in Win Shares Per 40 Minutes, and he isn’t even in the top 20 of the entire nation. Towns, on the other hand, is first overall in the NCAA in WS/40.
With the mind-blowing defensive rating of 77.0, how many other players in the country are even close to Towns? Just one, and that’s his teammate, Willie Cauley-Stein (79.1).
Of course, it’s just so easy to look past Towns and what he brings to the table. Maybe that’s because he plays 9.5 more minutes per game less than Okafor. Maybe it’s because Duke has four players recording over 28 minutes per game, while Kentucky has zero.
It’s simple (and okay) to fall in love with the superstar style of play. Young players are now taught to grow up with that attitude; offensive juggernauts who get countless touches in the paint tend to be more acknowledged than defensive-first players who let the game come to them.
As a freshman, Okafor has touched the ball in “post position” an average of 18.3 times on a per-36 minute basis. It’s more often than any NBA center per 36 minutes, which just screams at how much he’s relied on nightly. But, understand, nobody is diminishing his value because of the high volume. The Blue Devils are certainly succeeding by feeding their star the ball, since they’re averaging 1.29 points per possession when Okafor does get a post touch, versus their 1.18 points when he doesn’t. In the world of averages, that is a huge difference for the game of basketball.
Okafor’s level of exposure and attainment on the offensive end is what will keep him favored by the media. His skill-set holds a ton of value for NBA franchises that want immediate offensive help, and ones that don’t mind to take a handful of years to increase his defensive productivity.
What is Towns Reflecting?
While it may seem as if there’s a “one of a kind” player every single year, and one that you consider on the path to legendary status, you rarely find guys in that stratosphere.
Sometimes, you just know it’s there (Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson, Shaq, LeBron). Other times, you have to get lucky (Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Dwyane Wade, Tony Parker, etc.).
This season, we’re not exactly sure which category Towns could fall under, in 5-10 years. However, he surely is fitting into some glorious footsteps. Oh, and he’s doing it very quietly: Click image for full table
*Duncan’s 1994-95 season at Wake Forest was his sophomore season, not his freshmen. It was much closer to the production of Towns and Davis on a per-40 basis, so I gave him some leeway.
Now, it’s important to understand that throwing Towns’ name in the same breath as a five-time champion (Duncan) and a current MVP candidate (Davis) is WAY premature and somewhat uncalled for. But, it does serve as an interesting look on how history has played out.
Historically, players that are this versatile — playing both effective offense and defense — tend to pan out in the NBA.
Combine that with the fact that most NBA scouts and college experts are claiming Towns to be a more complete player than Okafor, and I think the answer becomes clear. At least, in my head it does.
On a per-40 basis, Okafor’s average of 1.9 blocks doesn’t touch Towns, or compare to any elite two-way players from their college careers.
Although, I’m not a full believer that stats tell every story, or even majority of one. The value of watching film is still atop the list when ultimately deciding on a pick for the future. Unfortunately for Okafor, that’s something that also favors Towns on defense.
During Okafor’s season, one of his biggest struggles has been defending pick-and-roll threats, whether that’s on side pick-and-rolls, or ones generating from the top of the key.
When Okafor is forced to defend a screen-roll, he runs into problems when a blazing quick guard comes off the screen. Sometimes, he’ll drift out too close to the 3-point line (sometimes even stepping past it) when he’s trying to cut off the drive:
For point guards that have a quick burst of speed, it’s rather easy to get past Okafor and be in the teeth of the defense. Okafor’s feet don’t move very easily or rapidly on defense, which is quite odd because of his superb foot-control on offense. That’s what leads others to believe it’s an effort problem. Of course, once a guard gets past his main defender, it forces everyone to collapse. Bad things, such as a foul at the rim, are more likely to happen once that occurs.
Other times, Okafor finds himself sagging back way too much off pick-and-rolls. These are the times where his stance looks completely lackadaisical:
The problem is, if he stays a few feet in the paint, guards that can shoot are coming off the screen and taking the 16-foot jumper with ease. It’s because Okafor doesn’t possess the recovery speed that a screen-roll requires. Towns occupies a lot more foot speed in these scenarios, so it’s less of a hassle for him. That is also a strength that will carry over to the NBA level for Towns, since majority of NBA offenses derive out of the pick-and-roll.
For Okafor to develop into a superb defender for his size, he’s got to find that “middle ground” more often. Not racing out to the 3-point line carelessly, and also not sagging back like you’re disinterested with the play. If he can find that middle ground more consistently, I expect him to turn into a great overall player in the following years. Just not right away.
Final Pick
Boy, this is another year where two NBA general managers are going to scream their heads off once the draft lottery is over.
Last year, Cleveland and Milwaukee were so fortunate that Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker were tightly matched in terms of the top overall pick, neither GM really cared which one they landed. They’ll tell you otherwise, but we all know Wiggins and Parker are gems in their own right.
In 2013, it was a toss up, because it was probably the weakest draft of my generation. There was no desirable race with the top two. 2012 was a no-brainer for the ages, since Anthony Davis had all the defensive tools to break records. 2011 wasn’t really a debate neither, since Kyrie Irving‘s point guard flash was so far ahead of anyone else. 2010 was another clear-cut decision, in favor of John Wall.
This is finally the year. Two bigs, with different styles, playing for schools that genuinely despise each other.
While Karl-Anthony Towns is the selection I’m putting all my cards on for No. 1 overall, minds can definitely change if the two square off in Indianapolis, for the National Championship.
For two special players, there would be more to play for than just a title.
**All statistical support credited to Sports-Reference.com and SportVU**