Why Rudy Gay Is Flourishing Under George Karl
By Aaron Mah
Rudy Gay is a ball hog. A chucker. A black hole. Phrases and words commonly used to describe the immensely-talented 6-foot-8 forward.
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His depicted reputation cannot be totally dismissed. After all, the last two teams he was traded from — namely, the Toronto Raptors and the Memphis Grizzlies — immediately blossomed upon his departure. Some would even venture to say that Gay’s inherent ball holding, mid-range reliant style is just not conducive to winning basketball in 2015.
The former Connecticut Husky’s name, and his associated game, was tarnished last season, when early on during the campaign, Gay produced high volume numbers on baffling efficiency for a struggling Raptors team — averaging 19.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game on a putrid 46.8 percent TS% (true shooting percentage).
Not surprisingly, after 18 games, Toronto would deal the 28 year-old cyborg to the Sacramento Kings.
While Gay’s individual numbers, particularly his scoring efficiency, went from rancid to middling as a member of the Kings, the sans-Rudy Raptors would rally over the next 64 contests, accumulating a 42-22 record over the stretch, en route to their first playoffs appearance in over seven years.
Meanwhile, for the Kings, after an optimistic start to their 2014-15 season, their playoff prospects quickly went down the proverbial drain after star center, DeMarcus Cousins, missed 10 consecutive games during the end of November due to viral meningitis.
Consequently, Sacramento only came out with two wins and eight losses during Boogie’s absence, which led to the subsequent firing of then-head coach, Mike Malone.
Thereafter, the Kings played their next 28 contests under interim coach Tyrone Corbin before finally naming George Karl as Sacramento’s third head
man of the incumbent season over the NBA All-Star break. It comes to no surprise that, when asked to describe the Kings’ incumbent season thus far, Cousins agitatedly replied: “It’s been a circus, man. It’s been a complete circus.”
While playing under such tumultuous circumstances, Gay was still enjoying somewhat of a career year. Prior to the NBA trade deadline, Rudy was averaging a highly-respectable 19.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game on 54.4 percent TS%.
However, since the arrival of Karl, not only have the Kings played at a much higher tempo — most notably, playing at the third fastest pace of any team in the association since the All-Star break — Gay has also spent a large chunk of his minutes as an interchangeable forward; playing the power forward position on defense and the small forward position on offense, as his partner on the wing, either Omri Casspi or Derrick Williams, serves as the inverse.
The increased pace and improved spacing has spearheaded Gay’s statistical explosion under Karl’s helter-skelter system. More specifically, the Baltimore, Maryland native has averaged a noteworthy 24.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game on a blistering — for his standards — 58.4 percent TS%, per NBA.com.
The main driver to his uptick in production is surely the Kings’ breakneck style. In fact, the post All-Star break Kings play at a pace, or possessions per 48 minutes, of approximately 110.0 when Gay is on the floor.
Their open court style and freewheeling identity has generated a bevy of open looks for Gay. In addition, the occasional cross-match their defensive setup produces by placing Gay as the defensive four, allows Rudy the spacing he needs to attack the rim, or pull-up comfortably for his patented stop-and-pop midrange J.
Sure enough, his shooting percentages, across the board have spiked to abnormal levels over the ongoing stretch. In fact, his 3-point percentage has inflated from 34.0 percent, pre All-Star break, to 41.0 percent, under Karl’s regime.
The primary culprit to his new-found sharpshooting prowess is most certainly the quality of shots Gay has been taking over the last 15 games.
Specifically, 15.9 percent of his shots derive from catch-and-shoot 3-point opportunities, where he converts said shots on an absurd 50.0 percent rate, per NBA.com’s SportVU Data. In comparison, only 11.4 percent of Gay’s field goal attempts came from catch-and-shoot 3-point looks prior to the All-Star break, where he made good on only 29.9 percent on said opportunities.
In addition to his much-improved efficaciousness from long range, his efficiency associated with his dreaded in-between game has exponentially spiked as well. Driven in large by the mismatches Karl has curated by playing Gay at the four, Rudy has had his way when facing slow-plotting bigs, annihilating them with a barrage of stop-on-a-dime mid-range jumpers.
In fact, Gay has converted on over 53.8 and 50.9 percent of shots from the 16-24 feet and 8-16 feet areas of the floor, which make up for roughly 34.1 percent of his shot attempts over the past 15 contests. Comparatively, Rudy only made 34.8 and 47.5 percent of his attempts from the aforementioned areas under coach Malone’s and coach Corbin’s conservative schemes.
Most interestingly, according to 82games.com, Gay sports a whopping 27.4 PER (player efficiency rating) and scores at an eFG% (effective field goal percentage) of 65.2 percent when serving the Kings’ resident stretch four. At the same time, he holds opposing power forwards to a PER of 13.9 and an eFG% of just 36.4 percent.
Take for example, the following clip:
The stress Gay instilled on the Washington Wizards’ core of throwback bigs, particularly in fast and secondary break situations, led to a cavalcade of favorable scoring opportunities. When guarded by an opposing power forward, the Kings have also shown glimpses of utilizing Boogie’s unique guard skills by running a fear-evoking Gay-Cousins four-five pick and roll.
On the other hand, when isolated at the top of key, which makes up for approximately 17.2 percent of Gay’s possessions, with either Casspi or Williams spreading the opposition’s power forward in the opposite corner, Rudy enjoys the ideal surrounding for unimpeded dribble-drives towards the hoop.
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In fact, over the last 10 games, in lineups that feature Gay as an interchangeable forward alongside, either, Casspi or Williams, the Kings score well over 110 points per 100 possessions. Most notably, the Ray McCallum, Ben McLemore, Omri Casspi, Rudy Gay, and Jason Thompson lineup has yielded a net rating of 21.8 during said stretch.
Undoubtedly, under the leadership of Karl, the Kings’ anemic defensive play remains the team’s most glaring issue. Despite some solid performances recently on that end of the floor, Sacramento still holds a firm grip on the title of worst defense in the league since the NBA trade deadline.
Until the Kings can consistently string consecutive stops and/or force an inordinate amount of turnovers, Sacramento will continue to experience immaterial success playing under Karl’s run-and-gun style.
What the Kings have figured out though, and the Raptors and the Grizzlies could not, is the best way to utilize Gay’s unique combination of fast-twitch explosiveness and refined scoring arsenal.
The next step is to draft a stud, preferably on the wings to complement Gay’s and Cousins’ strengths in the frontcourt, or a speed merchant at the point of attack, to effectively establish their concrete identity.
*Stats current going into Mar. 24’s slate of games
Next: 5 Likely First Time NBA All-Stars Next Season
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