In a season unlike any in recent memory, the race for the NBA MVP award is coming down to the wire. Not only is the winner undetermined, but there are at least five players with a legitimate case for the honor.
Lost amidst the flashy statistics has been the most consistent force in the hunt for MVP: Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors.
Curry and the Warriors are currently in the midst of an extraordinary season. The 27-year-old is flirting with a 50-40-90 campaign and has improved his defense tremendously.
The team, meanwhile, is on pace to record the greatest season in franchise history. Not only are they winning consistently, but they have the most wins and the highest win percentage in the NBA.
That’s where Curry’s MVP campaign begins.
Extraordinary Team Success
As previously alluded to, the Warriors have the best record in the NBA at 58-13. The No. 2 team in that regard is the Atlanta Hawks, which check in at a stunning, but not quite as impressive 53-17.
With 11 games remaining on the schedule, Golden State has a 4.5-game advantage in the pursuit of the best record in the association.
As history has proven, the best player on the best team is generally a prime candidate for league MVP. That’s far from Curry’s only qualification, but it’s still an important one.
The key here: Curry’s helping Golden State experience new success.
Warriors clinched their first division title, their first since 1975-76 season. That ended the longest current division-title drought in NBA
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) March 25, 2015
That’s the type of team achievement that becomes a signature moment in a star player’s season.
As Golden State nears 60 wins, there’s a genuine possibility that Curry will be the only MVP candidate on a 60-win team. Between that often magical number and the significance of Golden State’s season, the sharpshooter has prime real estate for a run at Most Valuable Player.
If the numbers show anything, it’s that Golden State wouldn’t be as successful without Curry.
Defining Individual Value
The Golden State Warriors are a deep and balanced team, which is a major reason why they’ve achieved the success they have. Golden State is also more of a star-dependent—or more specifically, Stephen Curry-dependent—squad than its reputation lets on.
With Curry on the floor, the Warriors are dominant. When he’s on the bench, they’re below-average—and that’s not an exaggeration.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, Golden State has a net rating of plus-17.4 when Curry is on the floor and minus-0.6 when he isn’t. That’s a different of 18.0 points per 100 possessions.
That’s considerably higher than Russell Westbrook, plus-7.3, per Basketball-Reference.com, and James Harden, who holds a difference of plus-12.2, per Basketball-Reference.com.
The closest to Curry: Chris Paul at plus-17.2 and LeBron James at plus-15.3.
It’s shocking, to say the least, that Golden State, a team with as much depth as any in the NBA, is essentially depending upon Curry’s contributions. That’s not how it tends to be for a 58-13 juggernaut.
For whatever the reason may be, that’s how it is.
Per Basketball-Reference.com, Curry leads the league in win shares per 48 minutes. Only Anthony Davis comes close in that distinction, and his New Orleans Pelicans are a distant 37-33—20 games worse than Curry’s Warriors.
Other players may have more gaudy statistics, but in terms of a player’s raw value to his team, Curry has as powerful a claim as any for being the Most Valuable Player.
Individual Glory
Whether fair or foul, a player winning NBA MVP is generally contingent upon their individual statistics. Without numbers that jump off the page, the casual thinker tends to downplay a star’s value.
Fortunately for Stephen Curry, he has the numbers to support the hype.
Curry is currently averaging 23.4 points, 7.9 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 2.1 steals and 3.4 3-point field goals made in 32.9 minutes per game. He’s doing this on a remarkable slash line of .479/.422/.914.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, the last player to average at least 23.0 points and 7.5 assists in less than 33 minutes per contest: no one. Ever.
You can call that a specific statistic, if you’d like, but any .0-based number after the 20.0-point threshold is a barometer. The same can be said for the 7.5-assist mark, which is often the standard for being a dependable facilitator.
Curry not only produces at an elite clip, but he does so in relatively limited playing time—and anyone who watches Golden State play knows that’s by design.
Many times, Curry sits for extended minutes in the fourth quarter—if not the period in its entirety—because he’s led the Warriors to a massive advantage after just three quarters of play. In other words, he’s experiencing Tony Parker syndrome.
Curry and the Warriors are too good for most teams to remain competitive. They’re also too good to keep Curry on the floor for long enough to pad his statistics.
42 of Golden State’s 58 wins have come by double-figures. 29 have been by 15 points or more and 15 have come by a difference of at least 20 points.
Those numbers are not misleading; Curry often operates for three quarters and then sits for the fourth. That places a significant limit on his statistics, thus hindering his attempts to match players such as James Harden and Russell Westbrook stat-for-stat.
It’s also a testament to his value.
The Warriors are 21-1 when Curry dishes out at least 10 assists. Golden State is 31-3 when he has at least eight dimes, and that’s not a cherrypicking stat.
When Curry sets the table, the Warriors are an infinitely better team. Going from 31-3 to 27-10 is a difference of having a .912 win percentage to having a .730 win percentage.
Both are incredible marks, but a difference of .182 is massive.
As a scorer, Golden State is 13-1 when Curry scores at least 30 points. It’s also 24-4 when he has at least 25 points and 41-6 when he puts 20 or more on the board.
Golden State is still an impressive 17-7 when he fails to reach that 20-point threshold, but that’s a significant drop-off from 41-6.
The harsh reality with Curry is that, unlike Harden’s Houston Rockets, LeBron’s Cleveland Cavaliers, Paul’s Los Angeles Clippers or Westbrook’s Oklahoma City Thunder Thunder, Golden State could likely survive without its go-to star.
The depth and balance is tremendous in the Bay Area.
What’s undeniable, however, is that Curry’s value is in elevating his team to an entirely different level. He’s taken Golden State from good enough to make the playoffs to a genuine championship contender, and that’s of extreme importance in the Most Valuable Player conversation.
Others have more impressive statistics, but Curry has a powerful case for MVP. Should Golden State continue to win with such remarkable consistency, it’ll be tough to deny him the award.
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