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NBA: James Harden the Leading Candidate for MVP

ByMaxwell Ogden|
Mar 1, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) brings the ball up the court during the first quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 1, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) brings the ball up the court during the first quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

When a team loses its defensive anchor and its second-leading scorer, it generally hits a sharp decline. When its third and fourth-leading scorers from the previous season depart, its upside player gets injured and its key offseason acquisition underwhelms, victories are often tough to come by.

In 2014-15, the Houston Rockets have defied those very odds. They’re 41-18, are No. 3 in the Western Conference and are in a position to make a run at a championship.

As the catalyst for this improbable success, James Harden is the leading candidate for NBA MVP.

Harden’s latest feat was leading the Rockets to a 105-103 victory over the red-hot Cleveland Cavaliers.

Cleveland had won 18 of its previous 21 games before Harden led Houston to the win. He did so by recording 33 points, eight rebounds, five assists, three steals and two blocks on 15-of-18 shooting from the charity stripe.

Massive scoring eruptions are nothing new for the 25-year-old shooting guard.

Elite Scorer

Thus far in 2014-15, James Harden is averaging a league-best 27.1 points per game. As the front-runner for the scoring title, Harden will inevitably be in the MVP conversation.

What separates Harden from the pack is the timely nature of his elite-level scoring performances.

Those aren’t empty numbers.

In Harden’s 26 games with at least 30 points scored, he’s led the Rockets to a record of 22-4. In his six games with at least 40 points—a league-high—Houston is 5-1.

Taking it a step lower, the Rockets are 28-8 when The Bearded One records at least 25 points. That creates the number you really need to know.

When Harden doesn’t score at least 25 points, the Rockets are just 13-10.

Harden’s 33-point performance against Cleveland was highlighted by yet another display of his uncanny ability to to get to the line. He’s No. 1 in free throws attempted at 568—160 more than any other player—and No. 1 with 9.5 per game.

Throw in Harden’s averaging 6.9 assists per game and his value is established as immense.

Making His MVP Case

As it presently stands, James Harden is averaging 27.1 points, 6.9 assists, 5.8 rebounds, 1.9 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.6 3-point field goals made per game. He’s been a powerful force in every statistical area.

Those numbers have him on an MVP pace.

According to Basketball-Reference.com, the last player to average at least 27.0 points, 6.5 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game was LeBron James in 2009-10. Before his 2009-10 campaign, James achieved the feat in 2008-09.

James won MVP in both of those seasons.

Furthermore, the Rockets are 9-1 during games in which Harden records at least 20 points and 10 assists. They’re 11-2 in outings in which Houston dishes out at least 10 dimes and 5-0 when he grabs at least 10 rebounds.

Beyond the individual numbers are the true identifiers of his value.

According to Basketball-Reference.com, the Rockets have a net rating of plus-6.0 when Harden is on the floor. That number drops all the way to minus-3.7 when the 25-year-old heads to the bench.

In other words, the Rockets go from a good team to a below average team when Harden comes off the floor.

Harden leads the league in Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares and Value Above Replacement Player, per Basketball-Reference.com. Harden is also No. 6 in Defensive Win Shares.

If you’re not sold on the advanced metrics, then simply evaluate the roster.

Feb 20, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard (12) during the game against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 20, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard (12) during the game against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Dwight Howard, Harden’s fellow All-NBA contributor, has missed 27 games and counting. Trevor Ariza, the Rockets’ prized offseason acquisition, is shooting just 38.3 percent from the field and 33.7 percent from 3-point range.

Terrence Jones has played well in recent weeks, but he’s already missed 43 games. Patrick Beverley was sidelined for 14 outings and both Corey Brewer, 32 games played, and Josh Smith, 31, have been relatively recent acquisitions.

For a vast majority of the season, it’s been Harden or bust.

As the leader of a 41-18 team, Harden’s a genuine and deserving MVP candidate. His individual play has been top-tier and his influence has led Houston to overachieving success.

There are a number of deserving players, but entering the final stretch of the 2014-15 NBA season, Harden is the favorite for MVP.

Next: How did the 2015 Trade Deadline impact the NBA?

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