1. Can The Blazers Recapture Their Stingy Defensive Play?
Undoubtedly, the biggest difference between the 2013-14 Portland Trail Blazers and its 2014-15 rendition is indisputably their improved defensive play.
Explicitly, the Blazers were 16th last season in defensive efficiency, allowing over 104.7 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. Comparatively, thus far this season, Portland is tied for third in league with a defensive rating of 99.6.
In fact, they are second in opponent eFG% (effective field goal percentage) at 46.7 percent; a significant increase when compared to last season’s mark of 48.8 percent.
The fundamental basis of the Trail Blazers’ defensive scheme is embedded around pushing all PNR (pick-and-roll) action to one side of floor by having the ballhandler’s man aggressively ice (force away from the screen) the initial play while the bigs sink back and zone up the opposing guard.
For this reason, the Blazers can comfortably play two 7-footers — and most importantly, keep Aldridge at the 4 — without compromising a high volume of penetration and kick threes, and unimpeded layups at the rim.
However, such a system requires maximum effort from the team’s contingent of perimeter players. Most notably, the man defending the ballhandler — usually Lillard, Batum, or Blake — has to pressure the opposing guard’s hip and split the court in half accordingly.
Meanwhile, the Blazers’ wings have to provide timely help at the nail to effectively discourage middle dives from the opposition’s rolling big, while frantically scramble back to their own man as the ball swings, in an effort to run the opposing shooters off the 3-point line — at all costs.
The strategy is inherently analytically-driven in that the defense is built is concede long mid-range two-point shots from, either, the opposing ballhandler or the popping big.
Sure enough, the Blazers, now in their second season of deploying said system, have progressed dramatically in the execution of their gameplan.
Specifically, Portland is tied for the league lead — along with the Chicago Bulls — in holding opponent 3-pointers made per game at 6.1, tied for second in opponent 3-point attempts, and second in opponent 3-point field goal percentage, per NBA.com.
Likewise, they’re currently second in the association conceding on only 55.6 percent of their opponent’s attempts within 5 feet.
And, accordingly, the Blazers are among the league leaders in relinquishing field goals made and attempted from the 10-14 feet, 15-19 feet, and 20-24 feet areas of the floor.
After Robin Lopez went down with a broken hand in mid-December, the Blazers were able to sustain their stifling defensive play for the remainder of the month; however, January was not nearly as accommodating.
Without their defensive anchor, Portland’s D plummeted down to 14th during the month, allowing more than 102.1 points per 100 possessions. In comparison, the Blazers only relented 99.5 and 97.2 points per 100 possessions during the prior two months.
More alarmingly, opponents shot better than 59.5 percent — the ninth-worst mark in the league over the stretch — from five feet and in against the Blazers during January, per NBA.com. Consequently, the wings had to be more aggressive on their hard digs and doubles; thus, surrendering an unusual amount of threes.
In fact, the Blazers gave up 7.2 3-point makes per game, 20.6 3-point attempts, and 35.3 percent from beyond the arc during the aforementioned month; a material regression considering their season averages of 6.1, 19.2, and 32.0 percent in the three respective categories.
In conjunction, Portland still continued to concede a similar amount of mid-range and long two attempts and makes. Not surprisingly, their opponent eFG% for the month had risen to 49.3 percent — tied for 18th in the NBA.
To be fair, Kaman should not be the lone culprit for their lackluster January play. It would be disingenuous, however, to not note the upgrade in rim protection Lopez provides, especially when compared to his lumbering backup.
More explicitly, opponents shoot over 52.2 percent at the rim when Kaman is patrolling the lane. Conversely, when Lopez is manning the paint, opponents convert on only 46.8 percent of their at the rim attempts, per NBA.com’s SportVU Data.
It is also worth noting that a fully functional, in-sync Lopez, held opponents to 42.8 percent on said shot attempts last season — which ranked him fourth among rotational bigs in the NBA, only trailing his brother Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert, and Larry Sanders.
For the sake of Blazers’ fans, hopefully, with Lopez rounding back into shape, he will once again solidify the team’s defensive principles, and the Blazers can finish the season with a defensive rating less than 100.
Next: 2. Will The Real Damian Lillard Please Stand Up?