Houston, we have a problem.
According to several reports, Dwight Howard is out — again — with a knee injury.
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With little more than two months left in the regular season and the start of the NBA Playoffs, the injury couldn’t have come at a worse time. With teams gearing up for the second half of the regular season, the Rockets will be without their anchor and cornerstone Dwight Howard for at least a month.
With 34 games left on the Rockets’ schedule, his loss could be nearly devastating for them.
With Tarik Black out of the Houston Rockets’ rotation — he was let go to clear a spot on the team for Josh Smith (*sigh*) — and Joey Dorsey taking Howard’s spot, how exactly will Dwight Howard’s second departure impact the Houston Rockets’ second half of the season?
The Numbers
Dwight Howard is the team’s second-leading scorer with 16.3 points-per-game, trailing only the NBA’s leading scorer, and MVP candidate, James Harden.
Also, Howard was the centerpiece of the team’s somewhat successful defense which held opponents to a 12th in the league 99 points per game. Nevertheless, when you look at the Rockets’ defense you can see that, even with Dwight Howard on the court, opponents were scoring at an above-average level from inside the paint.
According to nyloncalculus.com, Dwight Howard is 47th among average bigs in the NBA in contested shots at the rim with only 41.3 percent of the available attempts.
Additionally, Howard only saves .47 points per game while he is contesting a rim shot, which is, to say the least, not exactly optimal when you’re talking about someone who once was the most dominant physical force in the NBA.
Nevertheless, even though Dwight’s numbers are far from expectations, with him out it is Joey Dorsey’s to which we should direct our immediate attention.
In 11.4 minutes per game this season, Dorsey is averaging 2.0 points and 3.7 rebounds per game. Also, he is dead last on the Rockets in usage percentage with 10.2, so his low scoring numbers shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Right off the bat, Dorsey is a much, much worse version of Dwight Howard.
Additionally, even though Dorsey barely holds opposing shooters to a 44 percent shooting percentage when he’s on the ball, this does not even start to make up for his incredibly sub-par defense when he’s on the court. With Dwight Howard on the court, opposing offenses score 95.9 points per 48 minutes, whereas with Dorsey the number skyrockets to 101.5 points per 48 minutes.
The Schedule
The Houston Rockets’ schedule, for the remainder of the regular season, features 21 games against teams with over .500 records — against which the Rockets have a 10-12 record. Out of those games, 14 are against the ridiculously talented Western Conference.
Games played between teams currently over .500: pic.twitter.com/DRONBjJjYH
— John Schuhmann (@johnschuhmann) January 29, 2015
Rockets’ Record vs. Western Conference Teams >.500
| Rk | Team | DAL | GSW | LAC | MEM | NOP | PHO | POR | SAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Houston Rockets | 2-0 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/2/2015.
Rockets’ Record vs. Eastern Conference Teams >.500
| Rk | Team | ATL | CHI | CLE | MIL | TOR | WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Houston Rockets | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/2/2015.
Assuming they win 20 of the following 34 (an optimistic approach), the Rockets would finish the season with a 53-29 record that, even though it should definitely be enough to reach the playoffs, would land them a bottom-half spot and a matchup against one of the West’s top-seeded teams.
It’s not uncommon for NBA big-men to struggle with leg injuries early in their careers, however, with the Houston Rockets’ defense (read: success) built upon, almost exclusively, Dwight Howard’s ability to dominate down low, the impact and/or void left by his second extended-period-of-time departure could mean trouble for the Rockets.
And even if the Rockets summon the ability to whitstand Howard’s departure, it is highly unlikely that he’ll be able to regroup come Playoff time or even last more than a series or two at such a high level.
Rockets fans, brace yourselves.
Next: Rockets: A Different Take On 2014-15
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