Tim Duncan: A Deserving All-Star
The San Antonio Spurs may not be running away with the Western Conference as they usually do, but now they do have a 2015 Western Conference All-Star. Thursday night, Tim Duncan was named to the All-Star game, as he was elected as a reserve by the NBA head coaches.
The question I’m sure many fans that do not follow the Spurs are asking is, does he deserve it? Is this a lifetime achievement award or has Duncan truly earned his spot on the team? A quick perusal of Twitter shows outrage from Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings and Memphis Grizzlies fans, who think their favorite player may have deserved a spot over Duncan. Do they have a right to be mad?
The fact of the matter is, Duncan has been the Spurs’ best player this season, and one of the best power forwards in the entire Western Conference. Duncan absolutely deserves to be in the All-Star game, especially when you take into account what it takes to be a complete player: offensive and defensive production.
In his 18th season, at age 38, he is averaging 14.7 points, and 10.1 rebounds per game on 48.6 percent shooting. He has a player efficiency rating of 22.0 and he is playing stellar defense.
I went into more detail about Duncan’s sensational season defensively a few weeks ago, and since then it has been more of the same. Duncan still leads all power forwards in defensive real plus/minus with a 5.46 DRPM, and ranks fourth in the entire NBA with 2.8 defensive win shares.
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His defensive box plus/minus (Basketball-Reference’s version of real plus minus that compares a player relative to league average) leads the entire NBA at 4.3, and his total box plus/minus is 14th in the NBA at 4.3.
You can watch the games, or you can delve into the advanced statistics. Either way, it’s clear Duncan has been one of the best defensive players in the league this season.
He may not be a primary scoring option at this point in his career, but he can still knock down his classic midrange bank shot with ease, and get buckets down low. He has even sent a game to triple overtime this year with an unlikely fade-away jumper. That might not be a reason to name someone an All-Star, but it made for an exciting Wednesday night.
So, how does Duncan stack up against his Western Conference contemporaries? Let’s take a look at Duncan’s 2014-2015 statistics next to some of the other power forwards that either made the All-Star team, or were likely under consideration. Blake Griffin and Anthony Davis were voted onto the team by the fans, Portland’s LaMarcus Aldridge was also selected to the team by the coaches, while Zach Randolph was not selected.
I won’t include Davis in this comparison because his numbers are video game-like this season, and he obviously should be on the team.
| Rk | Player | FG% | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LaMarcus Aldridge | .463 | .876 | 10.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 23.6 |
| 2 | Tim Duncan | .486 | .724 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 14.7 |
| 3 | Blake Griffin | .498 | .712 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 22.7 |
| 4 | Zach Randolph | .513 | .740 | 11.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 17.1 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/29/2015.
As you can see, Duncan’s scoring numbers are not quite as lofty as the others. That is mostly due to Duncan having a much lower usage rate than the other four players. However, his shooting percentages are similar, and so are his rebounding totals.
When you look at advanced statistics, Duncan’s case is a little better, especially when it comes to defense. He has more win shares per 48 minutes than Aldridge (.18 to .175), and a higher value over replacement player (1.9 to 1). He also has the most defensive win shares of the group with 2.8, and highest block percentage at 5.0 percent.
| Rk | Player | PER | TS% | TRB% | BLK% | USG% | WS/48 | VORP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LaMarcus Aldridge | 23.0 | .529 | 15.1 | 2.3 | 30.0 | .175 | 1.0 |
| 2 | Tim Duncan | 22.0 | .535 | 18.8 | 5.0 | 23.9 | .180 | 1.9 |
| 3 | Blake Griffin | 22.7 | .547 | 12.4 | 1.0 | 29.7 | .175 | 2.2 |
| 4 | Zach Randolph | 21.6 | .559 | 21.0 | 0.5 | 24.5 | .177 | 0.9 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/29/2015.
In a conference with so many talented players, choosing All-Stars requires making tough decisions. There are no wrong choices. Snubbed players like Zach Randolph, Damian Lillard, and DeMarcus Cousins have great cases as well, but that does not mean we should disparage Duncan. Rather than focusing on who got “snubbed,” fans would be better served appreciating the players that will be putting their talents on display in New York on All-Star weekend.