ACC: Virginia Fails To Live Up To The Hype

A team is ranked No. 1 in KenPom’s rankings, No. 2 in the AP poll while being undefeated. Should be a shoo-in for a Final Four favorite if not a national title favorite? Well, in the famous words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friend.

In today’s unpopular opinion alert, Virginia is not as good as everyone is saying. In fact, this team won’t make it past the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament. Something this writer is so sure of, he’s made a gentlemen’s bet against his friends.

Now, hold off all the name calling, saying I don’t watch basketball, there’s no way this is a real article, etc. until I present the case.

Everyone seems to want to talk about Virginia’s schedule. Getting wins over Maryland, VCU and Notre Dame! All on the road! That’s great and all, but let’s take a more detailed looked at the Cavaliers’ schedule. First off, the win over Maryland is nowhere near as good as people want it to be.

The Terps were playing without star Dez Wells, who is averaging more than 13 points, three assists and four rebounds per game, and Virginia only won that game by 11.

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The win at VCU, sure it’s looking better now, but when Virginia played its instate rival, the Rams were playing their worst basketball of the season. They were 2-2 in the previous four games, with losses to Villanova and Old Dominion, while barely squeaking by Illinois State. Not exactly a great team heading into that game.

“But, Virginia has such a tough schedule! Look what they did in the non-conference!” Those are two claims often heard defending why Virginia is the best team in the country. However, according to KenPom, have a fairly weak non-conference schedule, with the 98th-toughest non-conference schedule in the country. So, it’s not like Virginia has been world-beaters.

“But they play in the ACC and the ACC is the best conference in the country!” Another sentence usually said by apologists who refuse to believe basketball is being played west of the Mississippi. Yes, the ACC is a strong conference, but it currently ranks third in conference RPI.

On top of that Virginia plays Duke, Syracuse, Notre Dame and North Carolina just once, while getting the likes of North Carolina State, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest twice. Again, not that tough of a schedule.

“But, Justin Anderson! He’s great and shoots better than anyone.”

Ah, yes, the Justin Anderson comment. Yes, Anderson has improved dramatically over the offseason and into his junior year. But, this has been an absolute freak season for Anderson, who is shooting better than 52 percent from deep. That must mean he’s always been a great shooter. Except for the fact he’s a career 30 percent shooter from three.

That 52 percent is a complete aberration that is due to fall at some point. Most likely during a three-game stretch next week when Virginia plays Duke, North Carolina and Louisville. Once this starts to fall and Anderson comes back to life, Virginia won’t be nearly as talented on the offensive side of the ball.

“Tony Bennett is the best coach in America!”

Ah, here’s my personal favorite. The Tony Bennett and best coach in America statement. Correct me if I’m wrong, but shouldn’t you make it past the Sweet 16 just once in your career to be labeled the best coach? Heck, Bennett’s teams have only made the tournament four times, two of which he failed to play to seed.

“But he coached at Washington State and Virginia!”

Oh, so just because he coached at two schools that aren’t in the same breath as Kentucky or Kansas, it’s OK to fail as a No. 3 and No. 1 seed? On top of that, when his teams lose in the NCAA tournament, they get blown out and often fail to score 50 points.

This is a fair warning to those thinking Virginia is one of the two best teams in the country. Just bookmark this, favorite this and come March we’ll have a good laugh together.

Next: College Basketball Rankings: Top 25 Teams In America