Is End Near For San Antonio Spurs Dynasty?
Opposing fans, NBA writers and media members, even the San Antonio Spurs players themselves have wondered aloud about the length of what might be the last great NBA dynasty.
May 10, 2010, was the last time the NBA really believed that Tim Duncan, Gregg Popovich, and the rest of the San Antonio Spurs had run out of gas. The talk that offseason was about how great the run had been, and how to start the rebuilding process.
The win totals had been dwindling, going down from 63 in the 2005-06 season all the way down to 50 in the 2009-10 campaign. We were writing the obituary on Tim Duncan’s career. Rumors spread about how long Coach Popovich would hang around without his Hall of Fame power forward.
Of course, the next season the Spurs went 61-21, and it was only two more years after that before the Spurs would make back-to-back NBA Finals appearances. The Spurs’ plans for the offseason have been discussed here on HoopsHabit, but what about the big picture?
It cannot go on forever, so is this time different?
Since 1990, the San Antonio Spurs have failed to make the playoffs only one time, in 1996-97, and even then you could argue that the organization was ahead of the curve on the value of strategic tanking. The horrible regular season gave way to glory of getting the first overall pick and a future Hall of Fame player in Tim Duncan.
However, there is a very realistic chance that this Spurs team will miss the playoffs. The West is deeper than ever, and the injuries and games missed due to rest for its aging roster have dug a deep hole for this team.
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Yes, they are still in seventh place in the playoff standings, but Oklahoma City looms like the Death Star floating in front of Alderaan. That team will make a run, and their talent is good enough to reel off some kind of crazy stretch run. 30-4, or a similar record is not out of the question, especially with the acquisition of Dion Waiters.
The Spurs on are on pace for 50 wins, but would that be enough to hang on to the last playoff spot? A more important question is, does that even matter?
Who is the future?
Those long seasons take a toll on a team, and back-to-back Finals trips can certainly wear down an older roster. So in a way, this is not surprising. However, the younger players have not stepped up.
Kawhi Leonard has been injured for a long stretch of the season. This is becoming a pattern for him. He has missed at least 16 games every year he has been in the league. This year, he has already missed 18 games.
He is still young, at age 23, and it is worrying that someone this young would miss so much time. As he ages and his body starts to heal more slowly, what then? Will he only play half a season each year?
When healthy, he can clearly be the next leader on the court, but it is hard to lead when in street clothes for a third of the season.
Anyone else ready to step up?
This organization has a history of turning cast-offs into functional role players, but no matter how many good role players you have, you will always need a star or two.
Leonard is clearly a star when he is actually on the court, but can anyone else join him? Everyone hoped that Tiago Splitter would develop into an above average big man, but he just turned 30 and has plateaued as a player.
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Generated 1/23/2015.
Splitter has reached his peak, as far as productivity goes. He is past his athletic prime, and guys do not generally make a leap after turning 30. Chances are, there are only a few more good years that can be wrung out of him.
Five years from now, he will be 35 and thinking about what to do in retirement. The other big men on their roster are either not talented enough or also on the backside of their careers.
So while we have heard all the talk before, this time it feels different. Kawhi Leonard is a great player, but is good enough to lead them back to the finals on his own?
When he signs his max contract extension, as expected, this summer, then he will have to be that max player. Leading his team. The Spurs know he is their hope for the future.
“We ran more plans for (Leonard) tonight than I ever have in his career,” Popovich said. “That’s the plan. We’ve got to start giving him the ball. He’s the future. I don’t think Tim (Duncan) and Manu (Ginobili) are going to play any more than six or seven more years.”
The Spurs coach said that after a tough win against the Clippers earlier this year, so he is clearly getting the big contract, and the big responsibility.
I don’t think Leonard is good enough to carry a team on his back for a whole season. At least not good enough to be anything more than a team battling for that eighth seed.
Maybe I am wrong. I guess only time will tell.