NBA Stats That Matter And Stats That Don’t

The 2014-15 NBA season has reached it’s halfway mark.  At this point it’s safe to assume we have a fairly decent understanding of which teams are good and which are not.  With that in mind, this week Stat Central takes a look at the numbers that matter.

As can be expected, success in certain statistical categories often has a direct correlation to a team’s record.  On the other hand, there are also several stats that are surprisingly irrelevant in terms of winning percentage.

These NBA stats really matter:

We’ll start with the basics.

Scoring differential is one of the most commonly used stats for determining how strong a team really is.  In this case, the Golden State Warriors also have a league-best 33-6 record.  The Atlanta Hawks (34-8) own both the second-best record and second-highest scoring differential (6.8 PPG).

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The Los Angeles Clippers (6.2), Portland Trail Blazers (6.2), Dallas Mavericks (6.1), Toronto Raptors (5.3), San Antonio Spurs (4.4), Houston Rockets (4.2) and Memphis Grizzlies (3.8) round out the top nine.  All of those clubs also rank among the 10 highest winning percentages.

The lone exception?  The Washington Wizards, who should be slightly nervous about their ability to maintain a top-five record (29-13) despite the NBA’s No. 11 scoring differential (2.6).

Field goal percentage is also a solid indicator of a team’s prosperity.  The five best shooting clubs are Golden State (.487), Washington (.476), LA Clippers (.472), Dallas (.470) and Atlanta (.470).  All five have top-eight records (the Mavericks are 29-13, the Clippers 28-14).

Houston is the biggest anomaly in this category, despite being 29-13 the Rockets have the league’s eighth-worst field goal percentage (.440).

Three-point percentage tends to translate to victories as well.  The six best teams from long range are the Wizards (.389), Warriors (.388), Hawks (.386), Clippers (.382), the 27-16 Spurs (.376) and the 31-11 Trail Blazers (.370).  After that the 15-29 Orlando Magic buck the trend somewhat, with a seventh-best .367 percentage on threes.

May or may not matter:

 Assist percentage proves rather inconclusive.  After the Hawks, the Warriors are second in percentage of baskets assisted on at .652, with the Spurs (.641) third and Wizards (.640) fourth.  

However, four of the five worst teams in the NBA also rank in the top 10 in this category–the 13-26 Boston Celtics (.635), the 8-33 Philadelphia 76ers (59.9), the 7-33 Minnesota Timberwolves (.597) and the 6-36 New York Knicks (.590).

Doesn’t really matter:

Rebounding differential seems to have very little bearing whatsoever.  The Wizards (.518) are the only current playoff team in the top six in terms of rebound percentage.  The 16-25 Sacramento Kings are No. 1 overall at .532, while the Warriors (.500) are 17th and the Hawks (.488) are 23rd.

Really doesn’t matter:

Points in the paint is surprisingly unimportant in the NBA this year, likely part of the growing league-wide trend that places added emphasis on three-point shooting.  Led by MVP candidate Anthony Davis, the 20-21 New Orleans Pelicans (.471) are first in percentage of points in the paint, followed by the Sixers at .469.  

The Magic (.460), the 14-27 Utah Jazz (.455), the 16-26 Detroit Pistons (.449), the Celtics (.444), the Kings (.442) and the 18-24 Denver Nuggets (.439) are all part of the top 10 as well.

On the other hand, the 27-16 Chicago Bulls (.404), the Mavericks (.402), the Hawks (.399), the Trail Blazers (.357) and the Clippers (.339, dead last) are all contenders who land in the bottom 10.

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