I can’t quite pinpoint what it is about a raw prospect who can dunk and shoot threes — much like a proportionate woman with long legs — that inherently appeal to people like me.
Embarrassingly, the first time I laid my eyes on Zach LaVine — during a nationally-televised college basketball game between UCLA and Missouri, a game in which LaVine would go on the break and throw down the most vicious one-handed windmill this side of a young Vince Carter — I had proclaimed him to be the next Kobe Bryant.
In addition to his shock factor, LaVine also showed a functional controlled handle, a smooth jumper, and an ability to play off-the-ball to set up a catch-and-shoot opportunity or a one dribble pull-up. After the watching the game, and a handful of YouTube clips, I was officially in love.
However, after a red-hot shooting start to begin his one and only season at UCLA, LaVine would quickly cool-off by the time conference play had commenced.
Accordingly, as his jumpshot went awry, his abundance of weaknesses started to surface. Much like intimate relationships with trophy-girlfriends, LaVine would reveal a new flaw seemingly every game — first, unveiling his propensity to settle for long twos, then his tendency to flee from any sort of physical contact, and finally, exhibiting his inability to finish at-the-rim, despite his “elite” athleticism.
Game-by-game, I would anxiously tune-in to watch UCLA and LaVine play — but, much like a desperate boyfriend who perpetually waits for his ex to call back — I would come always come away disappointed.
The agony would temporarily end, however, when the Bruins were eliminated from the NCAA tournament, where in their three March Madness contests, LaVine ended his college career averaging 2.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 0.7 assists on 20 percent shooting.
LaVine would decide to enter the NBA Draft thereafter, even though hordes of pundits thought the teenager needed another year of college seasoning.
Predictably, though, LaVine would put together a string of impressive workouts. Additionally, he put on a show at the NBA Draft Combine, producing some awe-inspiring run-and-jump test scores.
Eventually, the Minnesota Timberwolves would take a gamble on the ultra-talented combo guard by selecting him with the 13th pick overall in this past year’s draft.
Just when I thought I had moved on to obsessing over other prospects — just like the one-who-always-gets-away — LaVine would reel me back in with his NBA Summer League performance.
Playing primarily at the point guard position, LaVine was able to showcase parts of his game that were perhaps hidden at UCLA.
Even though he still shot an unhealthy amount of contested pull-up long twos, he was able to flaunt his ball-in-hand skills, penetrating the teeth of the defense, drawing fouls, and displaying a knack of finding his bigs with nifty drop-off passes off of his drives.
In addition, he found time to throw down a couple jaw-dropping dunks, which had the Summer League commentators, like Rick Fox and Mateen Cleaves, giddy.
And, after his stunning dunking exhibition he put forth at the Seattle Pro Am several weeks after the summer league had concluded, I was once again all-in on LaVine (SMDH).
Subsequently, after the Andrew Wiggins trade was finally finalized, I apprehensively awaited for the Timberwolves’ season opener to get my first glimpse of the prematurely-named “bounce brothers.”
When the regular season finally started, though, after an unimpressive preseason, LaVine would be relegated deep on Minnesota’s bench.
However, after a rash of injuries — namely, the high-ankle sprain suffered by Ricky Rubio — LaVine would be forced into the starting lineup to serve as the Timberwolves’ primary point guard.
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Unlike most raw, athletic prospects, LaVine actually has a solid set of fundamental skills. Most notably, he is a capable ball handler, with a substantial amount of shake to his game (although most of his stop-and-go moves teeters on a carrying/palming violation), and an advanced pull-up game.
His jumpshot may not be a work-of-art, as his mechanics deviates from the conventional textbook shooting form; however, it is extremely aesthetically-pleasing as he combines an ultra-quick release along with insane elevation when squaring up to launch his J.
Where LaVine struggles, though, is with the mental aspect of the game. More specifically, recognizing open lanes for drives and where his shots should derive from out of the flow of the offense.
As such, his major impediment is only worsened by his current responsibilities to run an actual NBA team.
It may be harsh, and while he is still a baby by NBA standards, he may currently be the worst rotational point guard in the NBA. Most notably, he continues to make the same mistakes — mistakes, in which, are considered cardinal sins for point guards — without delivering any material progress.
Offensively, LaVine is not quite comfortable with his handle, especially when feeling pressure — and for good reason. Specifically, his waist high dribble is often too loose and too cavalier; thus, at 6’6″ (in shoes), when guarded by guards 2-3 inches shorter, he is often vulnerable to have his dribble stripped.
Consequently, he has developed a habit of turning his back to his defender when feeling the slightest of ball pressure, much like the point guards of the 90s when handchecking was still legal. As such, not only does it limit LaVine’s vision to only one side of the floor, it also stagnates the Timberwolves’ offense, taking them forever to get into offensive sets.
When he eventually gets Minnesota into a set, LaVine has trouble getting the ball to his primary scorers. Most notably, Zach has a horrible tendency of telegraphing his passes, especially with his post entry setups, which often results in a turnover.
What’s most troubling — and may be what ultimately limits his prospects as a point guard — is his inability, or lack of inborn feel, to negotiate pick-and-rolls.
Particularly, he rarely attacks with conviction when coming off of a pick; instead, LaVine usually concedes to the defense’s will by casually drifting off to a side — and as a result, once again, it limits his options to only one side of the floor.
To make matters worse, LaVine has a terrible propensity of picking up his dribble at the most inopportune times and positions — most often, a foot inside the three-point line, foul-line extended.
His throngs of bad habitual instincts all come to ahead when trying to run a 2-man pick-and-pop game with Thaddeus Young.
Namely, most often times, he’ll nonchalantly drift horizontally with eyes glued on Young — effectively taking away his threat as a scorer — thereafter, he proceeds to pick up his dribble, jumps in the air (another cardinal sin), and float a soft pass to a popping Young.
After extensively watching LaVine, it comes to no surprise that the young teenager sports a modest assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.48, and that his assist rate — at 23.3 percent — nearly equals his turnover rate — currently at 21.2 percent.
Additionally, when using advanced statistics to measure a player’s worth, LaVine ranks last in Win Shares Per 48 Minutes, BPM, and VORP, for player who have accumulated over 700 minutes this season.
Moreover, as evident by his anemic 47.2 percent true shooting percentage, LaVine’s shot selection remains worrisome. More specifically, approximately 54.4 percent of his shots derive from 16 feet and out, where 33.7 percent of his field goal attempts come from 16-23 feet — a.k.a the worst shot in basketball.
LaVine has shown, however, the microwave ability to get unfathomably hot from the extended midrange areas of the floor — as he demonstrated during his 28-point outburst in Los Angeles during the Timberwolves’ tilt versus the Lakers in late November.
Keep in mind, though, LaVine produced the majority of his points on contested jumpers against a smaller, not-the-most-athletic defensive sieve, in Jeremy Lin.
On the rare occasion where he’s able to get into the lane, LaVine shows a solid feel and vision, often finding his open bigs diving and rolling. Many times, however, LaVine would misplace his passes by firing a bullet pass, or throwing a soft shovel pass, into a tight pocket — when the most reasonable delivery is the bounce pass.
In addition, LaVine is almost too passive when attacking off the bounce; too concerned with finding a big, even when a clear diving lane is presented in front of him.
At-the-rim, he is an average finisher, as the slightest form of body contact can knock the young guard off balance. When charging towards the hoop, without a reliable left hand, LaVine usually tries to avoid all traffic and yelp / verbal-flop — in desperate hope of getting a call — his way to the basket.
Defensively, LaVine is an absolute train-wreck. Blessed with exception lateral quickness, Zach does a serviceable job when containing isolation drives. But, as a point guard, his lack of intensity and motor, in conjunction to his slight frame, prevent him from fighting through screens in a timely manner.
Watching LaVine defend the pick-and-roll, is eerily similar to watching a corvette crash into a brick wall — as LaVine often disappears into the screener’s body, reappearing only when the defensive possession is long over.
As a result, opposing point guards can do whatever they want, unimpeded with a live dribble, when playing Minnesota.
As a help defender, LaVine is just as bad. His idea of collapsing on a strong-side drive is half-heartedly bending over and swinging at the ball. When contesting and closing out on a three-point shooter, he just raises his hand in a flat-footed position, as if his name was being called during attendance.
There has been a longstanding argument as to whether energy and motor can be taught. Conventional thinkers have concluded that basketball skills can be taught to a high energy player. But, conversely, a highly-tuned motor cannot be instilled in an inherently low-energy person.
His teenage rookie teammate, Andrew Wiggins, however, has made significant strides in this regard, thus far this season. Early on, Wiggins would stand and watch, on both ends of the floor, for long periods in a game.
The never-ending energy of his former teammate, Corey Brewer, and his partner on the wing, in Shabazz Muhammad, may have rubbed off on the number one overall pick. Most notably, Wiggins has become noticeably more active — perpetually cutting towards the basket, fighting for position in the post, crashing the glass, and hustling to complete his defensive responsibilities.
As such, when LaVine eventually moves to the wing, with Rubio’s impending return (yes, it’s been forever), there is hope that Zach can concentrate on his help responsibilities and defending wing isolations.
On a side note: What the Timberwolves are doing this year with their pair of rookies can serve as an interesting test case.
Depending on how Wiggins and LaVine turn out, it may determine the most efficacious avenue in developing a physically-immature, ultra-athletic prospect — whether to put them in the most advantageous position to succeed, like Wiggins (letting him operate close to the basket, limiting his ball-in-hand creation responsibilities, and letting his other scoring opportunities come from spot-up threes and straight-line attacks off of aggressive close-outs), or, give them an overwhelming amount of responsibilities, like LaVine.
At this point in time, it is safe to say LaVine is not capable of running an NBA team, at any capacity. Bad habits and tendencies aside, he lacks the inborn natural feel for the game that most starting point guards possess.
Take for example Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic’s 20-year old rookie point guard. When watching Payton, even with a broken jumpshot, he is capable of running the Magic’s offense at a much smoother rate than Minnesota’s. Most notably, Payton understands the importance of probing defenses to open up offensive opportunities, and nuances like taking an extra dribble to create an appropriate angle for a particular pass.
Traits, by all accounts, LaVine lacks.
Moreover, even though LaVine is a freak athlete, he is not the same type of freak as a Russell Westbrook or a pre-injury Derrick Rose.
No doubt, if LaVine and Westbrook were to compete in a 100-meter dash, LaVine would keep up, or even beat, Russ — and he would definitely beat Westbrook in a vertical leap contest with a running start.
LaVine, though, is more of a run-and-jump gazelle, most effective in straight-line situations. Conversely, Westbrook possesses a special kind of fast-twitch explosiveness — capable of hitting a small crease with tenacity and power. His body control and strength also allows him to finish through extensive contact. Accordingly, his athleticism allows him to dominate and overwhelm all opposing point guards.
Zach is almost the polar-opposite. As a one-footed jumper, it limits the variety in which he can finish athletic plays. At this stage of his career, due his lack of core strength, he is fairly uncoordinated when finishing at-the-rim.
At present day, LaVine’s athleticism is more suited on the wing, where he can get out on the break and utilize his track-star speed to get behind opposing defenses for uncontested dunks. We’ve seen glimpses of LaVine running the wing in the small doses, in situations where he’s played the two alongside Mo Williams.
LaVine should see much more of such opportunities when Rubio returns.
Although I have finally gotten over my unhealthy obsession with LaVine, I still hold high hopes for him. With his skills and talent, he can easily develop into a sixth man scorer off-the-bench or, more optimistically, an all-star shooting guard and a solid secondary ball handler.
In the meantime, he desperately needs play harder. LaVine may think and feel like he’s playing hard night-in and night-out, but most young players do not fully grasp how hard they need to work, especially on the defensive end, in order to have a material impact on winning.
But, coach Flip Saunders has repeatedly preached and praised LaVine’s relentless work ethic.
With an increased level of activity and refined spatial awareness, LaVine still has a chance to develop into something special.