On paper, it’s just one extra point. In technicalities, it’s just 22 feet from the corners and 23.75 feet from the top of the key.
Within reality, however, it holds more weight in the game of basketball than one could imagine.
You could attempt to argue the 3-pointer is equally as crucial on any platform of basketball. With that, you’d be slightly wrong.
In the college atmosphere, obviously extra points are necessary to win. But, NCAA coaches are mainly trying to drive home fundamentals — attacking the game inside-out, winning the paint battle, not allowing the offensive players much freedom to create — and they focus on building the well-rounded college athlete.
There’s one stage where the long-distance attack is becoming life or death, regardless if you’re in favor of it or not.
It’s the NBA, where superstars are mutating the entire league. Within today’s brotherhood of large NBA figures, we’re indeed getting to the point where the names on the back of the jersey may mean more than the names on the front.
We’re also getting to the point where they want to be trigger happy. In part, it’s because they’re overwhelmingly better at outside shooting than the generations of past. With the larger number of guys that feel frisky and confident from 3-point range, we find teams shooting an awful lot more as the seasons pass.
More teams are “living and dying” from the perimeter than a decade ago, and the discrepancy between today’s game and the one Magic Johnson ruled is greater than the lengths of the pacific.
The significance of the long-range bomb is getting heavier by the year, and it’s also elevating the quality of entertainment. You can’t sit there and say that watching Golden State reach igneous levels from 3-point land isn’t more exciting for the viewership. You can’t say the offensive orchestration Atlanta works around the perimeter isn’t stunning.
It’s inspiring, and it gets crowds into frenzies just as much as posterizations and fastbreak throwdowns. If you say you don’t find it fascinating, you’re lying, and I advise you to step into 2015. Not hang back in 1980.
Above all else, the 3-pointer is becoming a more monumental formula to success in the league, year by year. For the last five season, the advantage teams have gained just by becoming leaders in 3-pointer differentials is widely impressive, but not surprising.
It should first be understood that “made” 3-pointer differential is the difference between how many 3-pointers (per game) a team makes, subtract the amount of 3-pointers their opponent makes (per game).
Dating back to the 2009-10 season, I explored the last five seasons. On a path to determine how much regular season success 3-pointers have given teams, the results were favorable:
6 of the top 10 teams reached the playoffs in 2009-10, with the average record of the top 10 being 45-37 (.549). But, the NBA champion (Lakers) finished in the middle of the pack, at 15th.
7 of the top 10 teams reached the playoffs in 2010-11, and the average record of the top 10 was a ridiculous 48-34 (.585). The eventual champions (Mavericks) were in the top five, and their 3-point barrage with Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitzki was the primary reason they knocked off Kobe, Durant, and then LeBron.
6 of the top 10 teams reached the playoffs in 2011-12. Since this was the lockout season, where the year started on Christmas Day, you have to use proportions to determine average records. Each team only played 66 games instead of 82. Therefore, over an 82-game season, the average record of the top 10 was approximately 44-38 (.537).
The eventual champions (Heat) finished 25th overall in 3-point differential, which is mind-blowing.
Then, you get to the year that set the new standard for 3-point importance:
An astounding 9 teams of the top 10 reached the playoffs in 2012-13, with the growing Trail Blazers being the only one that came up short. When you consider they were third overall in the league at +1.8 per game, it really speaks to the difficulty of the Western Conference and how they were a dangerous matchup for any team out there.
Then again, it was only Damian Lillard‘s first season in the league, so they had to be given time to mature as a unit. You don’t lead your team to anything magical as a rookie point guard these days.
For the top 10, the average record was another high figure, 48-34 (.585).
The 2012-13 champion (Miami) were mixed in the top 10, but barely averaged more made 3-pointers than their opponents, on average.
Now, we get to last season:
7 of the top 10 teams reached the playoffs last season, and it was another majestic average when it comes to records. The average record was once again 48-34, with the Lakers’ 27 wins being the lowest amount of any team in the top 10.
It really should be 8 out of 10 reaching the postseason, because Phoenix’s 48 wins last year would’ve been enough for a 3-seed out East. So, give the Suns a playoff mark for their 2013-14 season.
Last year’s champion (San Antonio) was in the top five, and one of the four teams that averaged a 3-point differential of at least +2.0.
Just watching games the last two years, it’s been slightly easy to pinpoint how much more teams are relying on the 3-pointer. For crying out loud, the Knicks snapped the all-time record for most made 3’s in a single season during 2012-13.
New York hit 891, with Houston sitting right behind them at 867. Those were averages of 10.9 and 10.6 per game, respectively.
Believe it or not, nailing 10 or more 3-pointers per game has been something rare in the NBA leading up to our current generation. In fact, there have only been seven teams throughout history to finish a season with 10+ 3-pointers made per game.
What’s scary about the way the game is heading? For the first 44 years of the 3-point line’s history (introduced in 1979-80), there were only seven teams to hit 10+ per game.
There are four this season alone:
Of course, it’s not even halfway through the season yet. Things can change, and they probably will. But, it doesn’t erase the fact that teams — specifically playoff contenders — are increasing their load from beyond the arc.
Notice anything about those four teams currently making over 10 threes a game? All Western Conference playoff teams, as of right now. When folks parade around the conference disparity, this is a point that’s never brought up. Sure, the West is more stacked than the East, but they also have more teams that play the new, transformed version of basketball. They do it more, and they do it better.
3-pointers absorb the life out of defenses. It’s the greatest form of liposuction in a sport.
Knock down back-to-back triples off tremendous ball movement, and you’ll extend a lead to double digits in a hurry. Have a guy that can create his own and shoot over any defender on Earth (Kevin Durant), and you’ll go from down nine to making it a one possession game … within the blink of an eye.
Above all else, the 3-pointer is taking up a greater portion of NBA offenses than ever before.
If you take the amount of 3-pointers made for a team and divide it by the total number of made field goals that team has thus far, you’ll get a team’s 3-point density. It’s something I named myself, but it’s a useful tool to visualize what percentage of a team’s offense comes from the 3-point line:
* = currently in a playoff seed
As you can see, the Rockets are completely murdering everyone from beyond the arc. They’re splattering their opponents’ blood across the floor and impersonating Freddy Krueger.
Remember those 2013 Knicks? Those same Knicks that set the NBA record for most 3-pointers in a season? New York finished that year with only a 29.7 percent 3-point density, meaning only 29.7 percent of their field goals came from 3-point range.
These current Rockets, led by James Harden, are making nearly 33 percent of their field goals from long-range. It’s just dumbfounding, and it would clearly be a new NBA record if it holds up. Since Houston has 49 games left this season, I’m sure it will drop off quite a bit. But, you can’t bet against the statistics with Daryl Morey. Don’t be surprised if it’s still in the area of 31 percent as the season closes.
In the chart you saw above, if there is a star next to your team, it means they’re currently in playoff contention (seeds 1-8). Notice anything about the top half of the league? From 1-15 in 3-point density, there are 12 teams in playoff contention. In the bottom half of the league (16-30), there are only four teams currently in the playoff mix.
We all understand that Oklahoma City could eventually rise into the top 15 when they have enough time with Durant and Westbrook, but they’re not in the West’s top eight yet. Only Memphis, Washington, Milwaukee and Brooklyn are in the playoffs with low 3-point densities.
You could actually sneeze at the Nets and Bucks being in the playoff mix since both of them only have .500 records, but that’s just the East’s competition problem at full display.
If you want to be in the postseason come mid-April, it’s easily the best path to follow.
While it’s easier said than done and mastering the pick-and-pop game takes the most adaptable personnel, it’s the most indicative way of reaching the playoffs. Be a top team that knocks down between 8-10 3-pointers a game, and be a defense that only allows 6-8 3’s a game.
Typically, it’s taught that free throws win championships. It’s taught to be the most important aspect of basketball, since you’re getting free points.
However, 3-pointers hold more weight.
Free throws don’t take an entire crowd and throw them in a chaotic frenzy after three or four in a row. Free throws don’t make an opposing coach pull his hair out because a team doesn’t know how to rotate on pick-and-roll defense.
With every day that goes by, there could be 20 Stephen Currys born throughout this country, who can shoot off the dribble better than any point guard in history. There could be 20 Reggie Millers, whose eyes glow when it gets to crunch time.
Each year that passes, there are more shooters entering the league, mastering the art of the 3-pointer.
It makes the NBA one of the toughest leagues to play stiff defense in, and that’s the reason it takes some heat about being “too offensively driven.”
In reality, it’s the funnest part of sports. There’s nothing to match the intensity of a Golden State spurt, when the Splash Brothers are hitting in succession.
The league isn’t transforming.
It’s already transformed.
3-pointers are the new way of life. If you don’t like it, that’s your problem for not enjoying competent, prolific basketball.
**All statistical support credited to ESPN.com**