Stat Central: What Each NBA Title Contender Needs For Christmas
Exactly who is and is not an “NBA title contender” is extremely difficult to determine at the moment.
The Golden State Warriors (23-4) have easily the league’s best winning percentage at .852. No other team is above .800. If .700 was the cutoff for contenders there would be seven teams who qualify.
Unfortunately that list would not include the Cleveland Cavaliers, Chicago Bulls, Los Angeles Clippers, San Antonio Spurs or Oklahoma City Thunder, the five teams at the start of the season considered most likely to win a championship. The Dallas Mavericks would also fail to make the cut, despite their acquisition of All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo.
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Since 13 contenders in a 30-team league seems a bit unreasonable, I’m throwing records out the window. According to Bovada’s sports book the six clubs with the best odds to win it all are the Cavs, Bulls, Spurs, Mavs, Thunder and Warriors, so that’s what I’m going with.
And since this is Stat Central, none of the teams’ needs are things like “a backup point guard” or “a rim protector.” This is a Christmas wish list of statistical categories that each squad could use improvement in.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Blocks per game
Cleveland is 22nd in the league in blocked shots at 4.3 per game. Tristan Thompson leads the Cavs with an average of just 0.89. Opposing teams aren’t afraid to take the ball to the rim, and the recent season-ending injury to center Anderson Varejao (0.62 blocks per game) isn’t going to help.
Golden State Warriors: Turnovers per game
The Warriors are committing 15.6 turnovers a night, which ranks them tied for 26th in the NBA. However, their fast-paced style of play also forces 15.2 turnovers per game, seventh best in the league. But that still leaves Golden State with a -0.4 differential, a definite red flag for a contending team come playoff time.
San Antonio Spurs: Free-throw attempts per game
Because the Spurs are a fairly good foul shooting team (76.8 percent), they are 13th in the NBA in made free throws, connecting on 17.7 per contest. But, their 23.1 attempts each game ranks only 17th. Getting to the line a bit more might go a long way towards helping San Antonio repeat as champs.
Chicago Bulls: Field goal percentage
Chicago is 16th in the league in field goal percentage at .457. The Bulls are shooting only 57.9 percent on attempts from within five feet (tied for 18th best), and just 39.9 percent on jumpers from 15 to 19 feet (tied for 17th). Chicago makes up for its own subpar shooting by holding their opponents to just 43.3 percent. It wouldn’t hurt to take some of the pressure off the defense though.
Dallas Mavericks: Rebounding differential
The Mavericks are pulling down 42.3 rebounds per game, while their opponents are grabbing 43.7. The -1.4 differential ranks 20th overall. Dallas’ .477 field goal percentage (the second highest in the NBA) helps to counteract their negative rebounding rate. The addition of Rondo also bodes well for an improvement in rebounding. Even though he’s just 6’1″, Rondo leads all guards with 7.3 boards per game.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Three-point field goal percentage
As a team the Thunder are shooting only 31.8 percent from beyond the arc this season, the second-worst percentage in the league. Russell Westbrook is the main culprit, connecting on just 28.3 percent of his attempts while taking 3.5 per game. A healthy Kevin Durant (40.5 percent, 4.1 attempts per game) should make a big difference in this department.