Portland Trail Blazers: Improved Defense Heightens Title Chances
By Aaron Mah
In many ways, the Portland Trail Blazers’ torrid start to the season is somewhat of a deja vu. Through 22 games, the Blazers are sitting just one game back from the pace the team set last year, at 17-5. Their starting lineup remains intact and is, once again, one of the top performing five-man units in the league.
Like last year, the team is led by LaMarcus Aldridge — the most versatile offensive big man this side of Dirk Nowitzki – and Damian Lillard, their coldblooded point guard who possesses a deadly combination of elite handles and unlimited shooting range.
Last season, the Blazers would go on to win 13 out of their next 18, to begin their 2013-14 campaign with a sterling 31-9 record. However, the team would falter after the New Year, finishing out the season winning just 23 out of their final 43 contests.
Despite their highly potent offensive attack, pundits were quick to cite Portland’s lackluster defense as the cause to the Blazers’ inconsistency towards the end of last season.
Their incompetency on the defensive end was exposed in the playoffs during their second round tilt with the San Antonio Spurs. The veteran-laden Spurs picked the young Blazers apart, pouring on 108.8 points per game — with an average margin of victory of +13.4 — and beat Portland handily in five games.
In an effort to avoid another anemic tail-off, coach Terry Stotts have increased the team’s strategic emphasis on defensive end. Stotts is more known as an offensive guru after rebranding his coaching image while serving as an assistant coach under Rick Carlisle. Specifically, Stotts was the offensive coordinator of the Dallas Mavericks during their championship run in 2011.
Since taking over as the Blazers’ head coach in 2012, he has reaffirmed his reputation as an offensive coach by turning around Portland’s attack. In fact, the Trail Blazers went from scoring 105.8 points per 100 per possessions during Stotts’ first year on the job — which ranked 15th in the league — to sporting a 111.5 Offensive Rating last year, which ranked the Blazers as the second best offense in the NBA. Non-coincidentally, the Blazers’ win total spiked from 33 to 54 during the Stotts’ first two seasons with Portland.
Stotts has always underlined the importance of putting his players in the best possible position to succeed – such as Lillard in high pick-and-roll situations, Aldridge isolated on the left box or on the move through the pick-and-pop, or Wes Matthews curling off of pin-downs. He also does a terrific job of creating multiple pick-and-roll actions, primarily using Nicolas Batum as the secondary ballhander and running him off of dribble hand-offs into side pick-and-roll sets. Additionally, Stotts is an absolute mastermind when it comes to drawing up after-timeout (ATO) plays in dead ball situations.
To effectively complement their highly-efficient offensive scheme, Portland has implemented a defensive strategy heavily influenced by modern analytics. In particular, their defense is based around encouraging the opposing team to take a high volume of shots from the midrange areas of the court. To do so, Stotts has asked his bigs to drop back and play a soft zone when defending high pick-and-roll situations with the hope of walling off the paint.
However, due to Blazers’ guards inability to fight through screens in a timely manner last year (looking at you Lillard and Mo Williams), opposing ballhandlers, often times, had either an unimpeded straight-line drive — leaving the Portland bigs vulnerable to foul trouble (especially their defensive anchor, Robin Lopez) — or a wide open jumper from 10-16 feet, as opposed to a contested 16-23 feet jumper the defense had intended to give up.
This season, however, after receiving much criticism for his lethargic effort on the defensive end, Lillard has displayed a new-found vigor and has consistently fought over screens. In addition, his new backup, Steve Blake, is a tenacious competitor who, despite being a 34-year-old point guard without great quickness, is relentless in battling through picks himself.
While it is impossible to lock a point guard or ballhandling wing down entirely due to the elimination of handchecking, perimeter players can still bother the league’s best pick-and-roll maestros by consistently staying on their hip and challenging their pull-up jumpers. Thus far this season, the defense at the point of attack has been much improved due to Lillard’s and Blake’s ability to do said trait.
More from Hoops Habit
- The 5 most dominant NBA players who never won a championship
- 7 Players the Miami Heat might replace Herro with by the trade deadline
- Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
- Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
- Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout
Thus far, per Basketball-Reference.com, the Trail Blazers have improved their Defensive Rating from 107.4 — 16th in the league last season — to 101.3 this year, which currently ranks them as the fourth best defense in the NBA.
The team’s defensive principles are finally coming into fruition as they are holding teams to an effective field goal percentage of 45.8 percent, which is the second lowest mark in the league and marked improvement from the 48.8 percent the team gave up last year.
Additionally, their defensive scheme is serving its purpose as teams are only making 9.4 threes per game – which makes the Blazers the fifth best team in league at defending the three. The Blazers have also kept their turnovers down – sporting a 12.7 turnover percentage, which is the ninth lowest rate in the NBA. Thus, they’ve forced their opposition to play primarily against their set defense.
Moreover, led by Blake and flanked by the emergence of second year 3-and-D swingman, Allen Crabbe, as well as the steady defensive play of big man, Joel Freeland, not only does Portland’s defense hold steady, it actually improves when their bench is in during the early stages of the second and fourth quarters.
However, there are several glaring questions surrounding the sustainability of Portland’s current top-five defense. Namely, although the team holds the oppositions’ three-point and at-the-rim attempts from 3-10 feet at below average rates, the Blazers still let opponents shoot attempts from 3-10 feet and 10-16 feet way above the league average (as shown in the graph on the right).
With that being said, Portland also has the third lowest Free Throw Rate in the NBA. If they can improve upon that mark, ideally by attempting more shots at the rim, it will allow the Blazers even more opportunities to set up their half-court defense.
Their offense, although still wildly efficient, has taken a step back from last year’s pace. The Blazers are currently scoring 108.7 points per 100 possessions, which ranks ninth in the league – a drop-off from the second best offensive pace the team accumulated last year.
Much of their struggles can be attributed to the knee troubles of Batum. Many, including myself, believe Batum is the proverbial “x-factor” of the Blazers. At full health, Batum is an excellent secondary ballhandler and an above average floor spacer, whose length and athleticism is ideal in guarding the league’s contingent of elite small forwards – namely, the LeBron’s, KD’s, and Carmelo’s.
Thus far, Batum simply hasn’t looked right. Although his overall floor game is still solid, his shooting percentages have plummeted, his close-outs have been sloppy, and he goes through long stretches of games without making any material impact.
As such, even with the occasional offensive outbursts of Matthews and Chris Kaman‘s ability to pour in points — through his wide array of spin and pivot moves as he seemingly gets to the rim at will from the foul-line extended — in bunches, the Blazers’ offense simply isn’t as fluid and is prone to stagnation.
With that being said, since 1979-80, the NBA champion of each season was top-10 in the league in both offense and defense – with the exception of 1990 Pistons, 1994 and 1995 Rockets, 1999 Spurs, 2001 Lakers, 2004 Pistons, and 2010 Lakers, and save for the 2001 Lakers and 2004 Pistons, all of those teams were just outside the top-10 sporting a 11th or 12th ranking in Offensive or Defensive Rating.
The next slate of games for the Trail Blazers will be crucial in determining where the team stands among the league’s elite. Over the next eight games, Portland will play the Bulls, the Spurs twice, the Rockets, and the suddenly healthy Thunder.
If the Portland Trial Blazers can come out of this eight-game stretch with a winning record while maintaining their top-10 Offensive and Defensive Ratings, the possibility of Rip City raising their first championship banner since 1977 could suddenly become realistically attainable.