2015 NBA Draft Watch List: Sophomores, Part 1

The college basketball season has started and the road to the 2015 NBA Draft has begun.  I’ll continue to take early looks at players who are already on the NBA’s radar, or have enough skill or potential to break through this season.

The sophomore class is a pretty deep group, and with Kentucky having their own set of prospects, I figured I would take care of them in one shot.

These are not meant to replace scouting reports, which will come out later in the season.  These are not all-inclusive and just meant as a brief primer for those who want to track draft prospects throughout the season.  These are also not in any particular order other than who I choose to write about each post.

Aaron Harrison, Kentucky, Guard, 6’6, 212

(2013-14, 32.6 mpg) 13.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.1 spg

42.3 FG%, 79.0 FT%, 35.6 3FG%, 55.5 TS%, 49.9 eFG%

21.4 USG%, 11.6 AST%, 2.0 STL%

Put aside Harrison’s heroics in the NCAA Tournament, and you can see that he had a good, though inconsistent, freshman year.  Even looking at his big shots in the NCAA Tournament, he was hardly a factor in any of those games until his big shots. Harrison has very good size at the shooting guard position, and when he gets his feet set, he has range on his jumper beyond the NBA three-point line. He is a decent ballhandler, though improved by the end of last season, and he can use his body well to get into the defense and to the basket. Harrison uses his size well to find teammates from the perimeter or in transition, and he is also a strong transition scorer when he puts the effort in to beat the defense down the floor. Defensively, Harrison has the size to guard multiple positions, and he can use his length well to disrupt passing lanes.

What he needs to show this season: A lot was said last year, most of it true, about the Harrison twins’ poor body language on the floor. Starting this summer in the Bahamas, and still evident this season, is a much-improved court demeanor. Luckily, things have gone extremely well for the Wildcats, and the true test will be later in the season. Another improvement Harrison has also shown is in shot selection, especially willing to pump-fake beyond the arc, and just taking a couple of dribble for a wide-open jumper.  It would be nice to see Harrison attack the basket more, or use his size advantage to post up, but Kentucky needs him on the perimeter as he is one of the few, true long-range-threats.  Where Harrison really needs to improve is on the defensive side.  He usually gets good position on the perimeter, but knowing he has rim protectors, he will easily allow players to beat him off the dribble. Harrison needs to work on a lot of defensive fundamental, such as moving his feet laterally and finding ways to get over screens. Aaron is the much better pro prospect than his brother, and is mostly comes down to his shooting ability and the mental part of the game, but he is not so good that he can’t worry about being a high-level defender, which he’ll need to be at the next level.

Andrew Harrison, Kentucky, Guard, 6’6, 210

(2013-14, 31.7 mpg) 10.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 4.0 apg, 2.7 tpg

36.7 FG%, 76.4 FT%, 35.1 3FG%, 50.6 TS%, 41.7 eFG%

21.2 USG%, 1.4:1 A/TO, 23.8 AST%, 20.3 TOV%

Like his brother, Harrison’s up-and-down season could probably be considered a good one in a lot of respects. Harrison gives the Wildcats good size at the point guard position, though you would be hard pressed to actually say that Andrew is a point guard in anything but position name only.   His offensive game revolves around his trying to bully his way to the basket, using his 6’6 frame to create space, and he does it very well, at times.  He can be a creative finisher around the basket, and if given some space, he can finish above the rim. What he is very good at is drawing contact when he drives to the basket, and still be able to muscle a shot up.  Harrison has good perimeter shooting form, though he can be slow to get shots up, and he needs space and time to get good looks. He sees the floor well, and his size allows him to find open teammates, especially when going to the basket, though his passes can leave a lot to be desired. Harrison is much better in the open floor, where spacing allows him to time to get the ball to his teammates. Defensively, Harrison is as bad as his brother, though his size gives him an advantage on the perimeter.

What he needs to show this season: As I discussed above, as much as people want to call Harrison a “point guard”, he really isn’t, and it’s hard to imagine him having any success at that position at the pro level. He’s an average ballhandler, at best, and he has a bad tendency to dribble too high, leading to easy turnovers on the other end. Also, his decision-making with the ball, while improved, still isn’t very good.  For every good pass he will make off of penetration, he is just as likely to throw a bad lob or force a pass into traffic. Like his brother, Andrew has shown a much better on the court demeanor this season. Also like his brother, Andrew has a ton of work to do on the defensive side, where he will easily give up on containing the perimeter because he knows he has shot blockers at the rim. Andrew’s future as a pro is likely at the shooting guard position, though his ability to go to the basket will help him on the floor. He looks more comfortable already this year shooting long-range jumpers, and if he can keep it up, he could still have a shot at an NBA career.

Dakari Johnson, Kentucky, Center, 7’0, 255

(2013-14, 14.1 mpg) 5.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.6 bpg

56.9 FG%, 44.7 FT%, 54.8 TS%, 56.9 eFG%

19.0 USG%, 17.0 OREB%, 15.0 DREB%, 15.9 REB%, 4.3 BLK%

Johnson wasn’t much of a factor until the second half of last season, but when he played well, he provided Kentucky a big man who was more skilled on offense than on defense, something they have lacked the last couple of years. Johnson understands the fundamentals of post offense, especially using his body to get position and showing, at times, good footwork in the post. He didn’t show many post moves, and he was as likely to trip over his own feet on a move as he was pulling off a successful one.  Johnson’s ability to score around the basket was just as inconsistent, except when he realized he had a strength advantage and muscled his way to the rim for a dunk. Rebounding was more of the same. When Johnson used his body well, he could be a strong rebounder on both ends of the floor. On defense, Johnson gave Kentucky a big body who could battle against other legitimate big men in the post. Johnson showed a nice ability to use his body to push his man away from the basket.

What he needs to show this season:  Johnson took care of one of his biggest needs during the offseason by getting into much better shape than he was last season. The better conditioning benefits him on both ends of the floor, including letting him take better advantage of his low post footwork and being able to get out in transition on occasion. Johnson has also shown more varied moves in the post, including being able to go over either shoulder and finish with either hand. He needs to do a better job watching out for double teams, including being able to sense where they are coming from and getting the ball out to the open man.  Johnson draws a lot of contact around the basket, but he is a poor free throw shooter, or just shooter in general, that he needs to improve to take advantage of it. He is still a work in progress, but his improvement since last April has been impressive. Defensively, Johnson still has a lot of work to do, whether it’s working on being a better help defender around the basket, or learning how to hedge effectively in pick-and-roll situations. Johnson always works hard when he is on the floor, and he should continue to improve, though he would probably learn quicker with more minutes.  Johnson will likely never been a dominant post player at the next level, but he has a nice combination of skill and strength which will make him a valuable role player, as long as he keeps on improving the way he has.

Marcus Lee, Kentucky, Forward, 6’9, 220

(2013-14, 6.2 mpg) 2.4 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 0.6 bpg

61.9 FG%, 43.8 FT%, 59.5 TS%, 61.9 eFG%

17.1 USG%, 15.9 OREB%, 10.6 DREB%, 13.1 REB%, 9.2 BLK%

I’m including Lee here, even though I don’t see him being anywhere near ready to play in the pros by the end of this year. In many ways, I don’t see him as a good pro prospect at all, but you never know with Kentucky players when they will choose to leave, so I’ll put him in here for now. Lee appeared in only 25 games last year, but with two decent appearances in the NCAA Tournament, he put his name in people’s mind. Long and athletic, Lee isn’t much of a basketball player at this point, but he can dunk and block shots, so he has a role for Kentucky. There isn’t a single area where he doesn’t need to improve greatly right now, so I won’t list them all out. I will check in again on Lee in February or March, but I think it will be tough for him to make the improvements he really needs as part of the Kentucky “platoon” system. He needs to be on the floor as much as possible to maximize his development.