2015 NBA Draft Watch List: Juniors, Part Four

The college basketball season has started and the road to the 2015 NBA Draft has begun.  I’ll continue to take early looks at players who are already on the NBA’s radar, or have enough skill or potential to break through this season.

The junior class is an impressive group with many prospective NBA players, many who possibly could have made the jump to the league already.

These are not meant to replace scouting reports, which will come out later in the season.  These are not all-inclusive and just meant as a brief primer for those who want to track draft prospects throughout the season.  These are also not in any particular order other than who I choose to write about each post.

Caris LeVert, Michigan, Guard, 6’7, 200

(2013-14, 34.0 mpg) 12.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.2 spg

43.9 FG%, 76.7 FT%, 40.8 3FG%, 55.8 TS%, 52.0 eFG%

21.9 USG%, 17.2 AST%, 2.2 STL%

LeVert stepped up last season after the loss of Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. to the NBA, and now he will need to take a bigger step with Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson in the NBA as well. LeVert is a lanky wing with good athleticism and body control.  LeVert uses his size well to see the floor and to get good looks at the basket. He has a quick, consistent shooting stroke, with the ability to hit jumpers off the catch or the dribble. LeVert is an average ballhandler, though he uses his dribble well to create space for his mid-range jumper, and with his long strides, it doesn’t take many dribbles to get to the basket from out on the perimeter. When he gets around the basket, LeVert is a creative finisher, with the ability to score with either hand. He continues to improve his ability to find open teammates, either using his size to see over the defense, or to create off the dribble.  LeVert runs the floor well in transition, and his long strides allow him to get out in front of the defense where he finishes well at the basket or spots up on the wing for an open long-range shot.  Defensively, LeVert positions himself well on and off the ball, and he has size and athleticism to guard multiple positions. He uses his length well to disrupt shots and passing lanes.

What he needs to show this season: Like many recent Michigan players who have gone on to the NBA, LeVert showed great improvement as a sophomore.  He has versatile offensive weapons, though he needs to still improve some areas. LeVert’s ballhandling can be a bit shaky, even if the slightest amount of pressure is shown. He’ll have a tendency to let the ball get away from his body a little too far, and if he does regain control, any openings he found in the defense are usually gone. LeVert also can work on doing a better job moving without the ball, especially coming off of screens ready to shoot.  I mentioned that he uses his dribble well to create space for his jumper, but he needs to do a better job not letting his body drift as he shoots. On defense, LeVert needs to work on reacting better to his man’s movements, including showing quicker feet and better lateral movement over longer distances. Also, he needs to watch not getting turned around when chasing an active offensive player off the ball. He can tend to lose sight of what’s happening on the floor by either focusing solely on his man or the ball. LeVert will be the next Michigan player to the make the jump to the NBA, and he has a lot of tools already which will help him, especially on the offensive end. This is his year to lead the Wolverines and the more successful they are, the more it will help him come June.

Brice Johnson, North Carolina, Forward, 6’9, 228

(2013-14, 19.4 mpg) 10.3 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.3 bpg, 0.9 spg

56.6 FG%, 62.2 FT%, 57.7 TS%, 56.6 eFG%

24.7 USG%, 12.6 OREB%, 21.7 DREB%, 17.1 REB%, 6.9 BLK%

Over the past few seasons, Johnson has done a good job improving his game while building his body. He has gained at least 30 pounds since arriving at Chapel Hill a few years back, and he has reached a point where he should be able to contribute for significant stretches on both ends of the floor. Johnson has great length and athletic ability which he uses well on offense and defense.  He does a good job looking to establish position in the low post, though he still doesn’t have the lower body strength to back down many defenders.  Instead, he has shown a nice short to mid-range jumper which he can shoot as a turnaround or out of a face-up in the post. When he can make a move to the basket, it is usually a quick step or two into the lane and finish either with a dunk or a short hook. Johnson does a very good job heading right to the basket on a teammate’s penetration, looking either for a pass after his man helps, or to get into good position for an offensive rebound. Johnson is a very good rebounder on both ends of the floor, getting into position quickly, boxing out well, and using his quick-leaping ability to get to the ball. His leaping ability also serves him well when looking to challenge shots around the basket, though he needs to make sure to not fall for fakes to draw him into the air.  Johnson runs the floor well in transition and he is a great target when he heads for the basket and uses his leaping ability to get up above the rim to finish.

What he needs to show this season: As I mentioned, Johnson has gained at least 30 pounds since getting to college, but he still needs to continue to add strength to his frame, especially to be able to battle consistently in the low post on both ends of the floor. Johnson’s offense is still very limited in a lot of ways, but he continues to improve, and he seems to have the potential to be a legitimate inside-outside threat. Johnson could be a could screener and roll man in pick-and-roll situations, though he needs to work on being a better screener and opening up to the ball quicker. Defensively, his added strength has helped him defend in the low post, though he still needs to continue to improve his footwork. He can be slow to react to quick post moves, and instead of moving his feet to recover, he ends up using his hands or arms. Johnson is an intriguing pro prospect, with his still-improving skill set, and his length and athleticism. Once he puts it all together consistently, he will be a tough match-up for even very good defenders.

Cameron Ridley, Texas, Center, 6’9, 285

(2013-14, 25.6 mpg) 11.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.2 bpg

54.5 FG%, 62.6 FT%, 57.6 TS%, 54.5 eFG%

21.0 USG%, 13.5 OREB%, 20.4 DREB%, 17.0 REB%, 9.1 BLK%

Ridley made great strides last season, especially with his conditioning. Getting into better shape allowed Ridley to stay on the floor longer, making an impact for the Longhorns on both ends of the floor. At 6’9 and 285 pounds, he is an imposing figure in the low post, and he uses his massive body well to establish position and making it tough for defenders to move him off the block. His ability to seal the defender also opens up the floor for penetration by his teammates.  Ridley continues to improve his footwork, which was pretty good to start, and he has a soft touch around the basket.  He senses double-teams well and is quick to get the ball out before the trap. Ridley uses his big body well to clear out space to rebound on both ends of the floor, and when getting an offensive rebound he can be quick to get a good second shot off. Though heavy, Ridley can get up and finish strong if given a bit of space.  Defensively, Ridley uses his body well to move his man away from the basket, and like on offense, he moves his feet fell for his size. He is a good weak side defender, quick to challenge shots around the basket, and he has improved his ability to extend to block shots without fouling.

What he needs to show this season:  Most important, Ridley needs to continue to improve his conditioning to stay on the floor for long stretches of time. On offense, Ridley needs to work on developing more post moves, especially quick moves to the basket, as well as showing he can use his left hand to finish around the basket. He has shown good moves over his right shoulder, only to bring the ball back to his right hand to shoot, giving the defender a chance to alter the shot.  Ridley draws fouls at a very large rate, but he needs to improve his free throw shooting ability to really take advantage of it. Defensively, Ridley has a nice combination of strength and footwork, though he can still be beat by quicker post players, either with a fast move, or by facing up out of the post and looking to drive by him. Ridley doesn’t have the speed to get out and hedge well in pick-and-roll situations, so he drops off quickly, leaving a lot of space for the ballhandler to get a shot or see his options.  Ridley’s size and skill make him a legitimate NBA prospect, but his conditioning will be an important factor going forward. He becomes much less of a factor when Texas looks to push the pace, and he may have some trouble with the speed of the NBA game unless he continues to lose weight.

Kaleb Tarczewski, Arizona, Center, 7’0, 245

(2013-14, 28.3 mpg) 9.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.0 bpg

58.4 FG%, 75.6 FT%, 63.2 TS%, 58.4 eFG%

17.9 USG%, 8.9 OREB%, 16.9 DREB%, 13.0 REB%, 3.6 BLK%

Tarczewski definitely showed some development last year on both ends of the floor, though he didn’t seem to make as big as an impact as he could of in the offense once Brandon Ashley was injured. He has great size and moves well for a 7-footer. He is more skilled on the offensive end then on defense. Tarczewski has shown nice touch around the basket and a few go-to moves with his back to the basket, along with some ability to hit shots out to 8-10 feet. He has a good nose for the ball and looks to get into position quickly for offensive rebounds. Tarczewski does a good job drawing contact around the basket, and he has a good enough free throw stroke that he takes advantage. Tarczewski has shown better patience on the offensive end, and he will finish strong if given some space. On defense, Tarczewski uses his athleticism well to challenge shots around the basket and he goes hard after missed shots. He has good awareness and has improved as a weak-side defender. He improved both his perimeter and post defense as the year went on, but he still has a lot of work to do.

What he needs to show this season: As expected, Tarczewski’s development has been slower than a lot of big prospects, primarily because the Arizona offense doesn’t feature real post play. He needs to continue to work on using his body better to get position in the post, and continue to develop his footwork and post moves on both sides of the basket and over both shoulders. Along with this, he should also work on finishing with either hand around the rim. Once he adds more strength, he should be able to get good shots off around the basket, even in traffic. While he seems to know what to do in pick-and-roll situations, he needs to work on setting better screens and opening up quicker to the ball.  On the defensive side, his defense on high screens needs to improve, especially showing that he can hedge out on the ballhandler and recover. Tarczewski has potential to be a good rim-protector, but he seems to be always just a bit behind the shooter and late to the ball. It will be important to see if Arizona can do a better job getting Tarczewski the ball and using his post offense more efficiently.