2015 NBA Draft Watch List: Juniors, Part Three

It’s just a few days from the start of college basketball season and the road to the 2015 NBA Draft has begun.  It’s time to start taking some early looks at players who are already on the NBA’s radar, or have enough skill or potential to break through this season.

The junior class is an impressive group with many prospective NBA players, many who possibly could have made the jump to the league already.

These are not meant to replace scouting reports, which will come out during the season.  These are not all-inclusive and just meant as a brief primer for those who want to track draft prospects throughout the season.  These are also not in any particular order other than who I choose to write about each post.

Alex Poythress, Kentucky, Forward, 6’8, 238

(2013-14, 18.4 mpg) 5.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 0.7 bpg

49.7 FG%, 62.5 FT%, 24.2 3FG%, 54.4 TS%, 52.0 eFG%

17.2 USG%, 11.6 OREB%, 16.3 DREB%, 14.0 REB%, 4.0 BLK%

Though Poythress’ minutes and numbers were down, by the end of the season he had found a role that suited him well. Poythress is athletic with a pro’s body, and he has shown some skill in some key areas. He uses his athleticism well to crash the offensive boards and he does a good job heading to the rim when his defender has to help off him on penetration. Poythress is a quick leaper and can finish above the rim in some spectacular ways. He runs the floor well in transition and does a good job heading straight to basket for an easy dunk or offensive rebound chance. On defense, Poythress showed plenty of improvement as a sophomore, defending the post and the perimeter well. He positions himself well on and off the ball, and he has improved his lateral movement and how he handles getting through screens.  Poythress can also help defend around the rim, using his leaping ability well to block shots.

What he needs to show this season: Poythress can be frustrating to watch because you know he could be capable of much more, especially on offense. He has been hesitant to take long-range shots, even when open and even though his form isn’t bad. Once he hesitates and still chooses to shoot, his motion can become disjointed, causing some bad misses. With his body and athletic ability, he should be able to take the ball to the rim off the dribble, but his lack of ballhandling ability limits him to short distances.  Before he moved to his bench role, Poythress would seem lost on the floor while the rest of the team was going through the motions of the offense, and he looks much more comfortable in a limited, repetitious role. There is still a lot of potential in Poythress’ game, but he needs to start putting the pieces together quickly, especially the mental part of the game. Unfortunately for him, with the depth of Kentucky’s talent, he may not get the chance to work on all he needs to before he leaves there.

Montrezl Harrell, Louisville, Forward, 6’8, 240

(2013-14, 29.3 mpg) 14.0 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg, 1.4 spg

60.9 FG%, 46.4 FT%, 59.2 TS%, 61.2 eFG%

22.0 USG%, 12.1 OREB%, 19.7 DREB%, 15.9 REB%, 4.8 BLK%

Harrell took a major step forward as a sophomore and is primed for an even bigger junior season. Harrell’s game is centered on his strength. He uses his body well to get position around the basket on both ends of the floor, and he has no problem fighting through contact to get a shot off. Harrell is capable of getting quickly off the ground and finishing above the rim, often in ways that make it seem like he will rip the rim off the basket. Harrell’s ability to seal off his man on offense leaves huge gaps for guards to get to the basket. He is also an active rebounder on both ends of the floor, using his body well to box out and going strong after the ball. Harrell is an efficient scorer around the basket, so the Cardinals will need to find a way to get the ball into him. He runs the floor extremely well for his size, heading right for the basket and waiting for a pass around the rim for him to throw down. Defensively, Harrell has very good awareness and is a physical post defender.  He is active on the ball and does a good job keeping his hands and feet active.

What he needs to show this season: Harrell could have a bigger role on offense now that there is a huge void in shot attempts left behind when Russ Smith moved on. His mid-range jumper has improved, but he can still continue to work on making his catch and release a smoother process. Also, it would help Harrell if he could finish with his left hand consistently around the basket. His post moves are basic, relying more on strength, so he should continue to develop his footwork in his back-to-the basket game, as well as being able to face up and take the ball off the dribble to the rim. While his jumper has improved, his free throw shooting has not. He has an odd way of shooting his free throws, not using his legs at all, so his shots are line drives which need to be right on target to have a shot at going in. While he is a very good offensive rebounder, Harrell does have to watch a tendency to bring the ball down low after he grabs it, leaving it open for defenders to get their hands on it.  On defense, Harrell should focus on using his feet more to stop players, and not rely so much on using his hands and upper body to lean on players. Also, he needs to work on moving his feet better, especially his lateral movement, when guarding on the perimeter. He can be a good shot-blocker, but he needs to watch falling for shot fakes too easily or trying to make plays on shots he has no chance of getting to. Harrell is an intriguing NBA prospect because of his physical abilities, so it’s important for him to keep building on the skill portion of the game.

Michael Frazier II, Florida, Guard, 6’4, 194

(2013-14, 30.5 mpg) 12.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.1 spg

45.9 FG%, 84.2 FT%, 44.5 3FG%, 64.9 TS%, 63.1 eFG%

18.9 USG%, 11.6 DREB%, 7.0 REB%, 7.7 AST%

Frazier emerged last season as one of, if not the, best three-point shooting threats in the country, including a game against South Carolina where he hit eleven from behind the arc. That’s his game right now – long-range threat – with 77 percent of his shot attempts last year coming from three-point range.  He has NBA range and a quick, consistent shooting motion, even though, at times, the ball seems to be a line drive right for the rim. Frazier doesn’t force bad shots, and he is very good at making the extra pass to an open teammate if they have a better look than he does.  Frazier is a good ballhandler and has shown good court vision, along with the ability to create off the dribble. Defensively, Frazier is an active defender who covers a lot of ground in Florida’s defense. He helps pick up the ball in the backcourt, can be quick to trap, and shows good awareness, especially against offenses with a lot of movement. Frazier is quick to help crash the boards and rebounds well for his size. Frazier runs the floor well, can push the ball up if needed, and forces transition defenders to account for him behind the arc, opening up the floor.

What he needs to show this season:  It’s easy to see a lot of Bradley Beal in Frazier, especially with the role he plays for the Gators. It’s tough to argue with Frazier’s long-range ability, but I would like to see him attack the basket more, especially with his ability to see the floor and find teammates off the dribble. He can also do a better job moving without the ball, using quick cuts and coming tighter off of screens to get open. Defensively, Frazier needs to work on his foot speed and lateral movement, especially when he is in an isolation situation with his man. Frazier’s shooting ability will get him to the next level, but making his game more versatile, like Beal did, will be the key to what kind of role he can play.

Shawn Long, Louisiana-Lafayette, Forward, 6’9, 245

(2013-14, 29.4 mpg) 18.6 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 2.7 bpg

52.2 FG%, 67.4 FT%, 42.3 3FG%, 58.2 TS%, 55.8 eFG%

29.1 USG%, 13.4 OREB%, 26.6 DREB%, 19.9 REB%, 9.2 STL%

In most years, the season Long had last year would have given him an easy win as Sun Belt Player of the Year, but teammate Elfrid Payton and Georgia State’s R.J. Hunter garnered most of the attention. Long has averaged double-figures in points and rebounds the past two years, and will likely do it for a third straight year this year. He is a versatile scorer, able to hit from long-range consistently or in the post. He has good footwork in the low post, and he makes some very quick moves for his size. Long has nice touch around the basket and can finish with either hand around the basket.  He uses his body well to get position in the low post, and he works hard to seal off his man for guards to get to the basket. Long is a tough rebounder on both ends of the floor, using his body well to establish position around the basket and going strong after the ball. Long has a nice shooting stroke from the perimeter and good range. He hits well off the catch, or even off of 1 or 2 dribbles. Defensively, Long uses his body well to guard bigger players, and he does a good job moving offensive players away from the basket. He is a good help defender and uses his length well to block shots around the rim.

What he needs to show this season: Long will need to adjust to not having Payton around to draw help defenders and freeing him up around the basket or on the perimeter. He did a good job last year taking better perimeter shots, though he can expand his game more by learning to open up quicker in pick-and-pop and pick-and-roll situations. Where Long really needs to put in work is on the defensive end. He needs to work on his footwork on both the perimeter and in the post. Also, he should work on using his lower body more to defend the post instead of using his arms and upper body. Though it may be a coach’s decision, he doesn’t hedge at all on high screens and a lot of space is left for the ballhandler. That may need to change without Payton’s ability to get over screens. Long has an NBA skill set on the offensive end, but he needs to put more work in on defense and conditioning before he is ready for the next level.