2015 NBA Draft Watch List: Juniors, Part One

It’s just 2 weeks from the start of college basketball season and the road to the 2015 NBA Draft has begun.  It’s time to start taking some early looks at players who are already on the NBA’s radar, or have enough skill or potential to break through this season.

The junior class is an impressive group with many prospective NBA players, many who possibly could have made the jump to the league already.

These are not meant to replace scouting reports, which will come out during the season.  These are not all-inclusive and just meant as a brief primer for those who want to track draft prospects throughout the season.  These are also not in any particular order other than who I choose to write about each post.

Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky, Center, 7’0, 240

(2013-14, 23.8 mpg) 6.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.9 bpg, 1.2 spg

59.6 FG%, 48.2 FT%, 58.0 TS%, 59.6 eFG%

14.1 USG%, 12.6 OREB%, 16.3 DREB%, 14.5 REB%, 12.3 BLK%, 3.0 STL%

After playing well in Nerlens Noel’s absence last season, Cauley-Stein showed some improvement in his sophomore year, even if he was again splitting time at the center position. Long and athletic, and with the ability to get off the ground quickly, Cauley-Stein’s offense is still almost all dunks off of passes at the basket  when defenders had to help off of him, or quick put-backs off of offensive rebounds. As mentioned, he is quick off the ground and is able to finish strong once he gets his hands on the ball. Cauley-Stein also showed some ability to dribble over short distances to the basket, though it’s limited to going to his right. Even when Cauley-Stein can’t get to an offensive rebound, he does a good job keeping balls alive with his long reach and giving his teammates a chance to grab it. He showed much better awareness in the post as a passer, using his size well to see over the defense and hit open teammates.  Cauley-Stein runs the floor well in transition and he does a good job heading straight to the basket on the break to get a pass around the basket or try to clean up on the boards.  Defensively, Cauley-Stein is a major shot-blocking threat, able to get to shots that many shot-blockers wouldn’t even attempt. If he isn’t blocking shots, he has the ability to alter anything around the basket if he is in position. He showed much better ability to defend on the perimeter, and he can be a real factor using his length to defend in pick-and-roll situations. Cauley-Stein moves his feet well when defending, and he can get to spots quickly when he needs to help. Though he doesn’t get to do it often, he can defend well in transition, and you can’t count him out from running the length of the floor to block a shot on the break.

What he needs to show this season: Like his freshman season, Cauley-Stein showed improvement by the end of the season as a back-to-the-basket post player, but almost every part of his offense needs significant work. In the post, he does a good job using his body to seal off the defender, but he doesn’t have the strength or balance to compete with strong defenders, who end up pushing him away from the basket. His post moves are limited, though his footwork and touch around the basket have improved. Cauley-Stein has shown some decent ballhandling skills over short areas, but he still doesn’t have good enough control with either hand to make a move to the basket outside of 6-8 feet against an average defender. He has a lot of potential in the pick-and-roll game with his athleticism, but he needs to become more fluid opening up to the ball, as well as becoming a better screener. Cauley-Stein’s length against smaller defenders allows him to draw fouls at a good rate, but he is abysmal at the free throw line, and he has to put serious work into every part of his shooting mechanics, including making sure of a smooth release. On defense, Cauley-Stein will play standing straight up in the post, which allows him to try and block shots quicker, but also allows him to be backed down easily or get beat by a quick step to either side. Cauley-Stein still has a lot of potential at the next level, but without significant improvement in many offensive areas, he would probably just fit in well with a team that likes to get out in transition often.

Marcus Paige, North Carolina, Guard, 6’1, 175

(2013-14, 35.6 mpg) 17.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.5 spg

44.0 FG%, 87.7 FT%, 38.9 3FG%, 59.2 TS%, 53.9 eFG%

22.6 USG%, 2:1 A/TO, 22.0 AST%, 3.2 STL%

Paige made a huge impact as a sophomore, winning the ACC’s Most Improved Player on his way to being a Second-Team All-American. At times, Paige was almost all that kept the Tar Heels in games as they learned to adjust to a young team and the loss of P.J. Hairston. Roy Williams played Paige at the point and off the ball last season, but he is at his best when he has the ball and looks to make something happen. He is a strong ballhandler, able to go left or right well, and doing a good job handling pressure.  Paige sees the floor well and can be a strong passer, especially when looking to create off the dribble.  Paige’s strength is in his ability to score, especially with his jumper.  He has a smooth, consistent left-handed stroke, and he is able to hit spot-up jumpers or hit them off the dribble. He has good range has a spot-up shooter, and he is able to use screens well on and off the ball. Defensively, Paige is a strong on and off the ball, showing active hands and feet, as well as the ability to pressure the ball or passing lanes if needed. He also does a good job helping as a trap defender in the post. Paige can be very good in transition, pushing the ball up the floor quickly and being able to score at the basket or off the jumper.

What he needs to show this season: Paige was needed to carry a big scoring load last season, and he did a great job. Still, his ability to run the point and create for others needs to improve. As I mentioned, he has good vision with the ball and does a good job seeing his options. He can be slow though to make decision, and he can also throw some poor passes, even if they don’t lead to turnovers. Paige improved his ability to make reads in pick-and-roll situations, though he can still work on making them quicker, and not always looking for his shot as the first option. Paige doesn’t have great size, and he doesn’t like to look to get to the basket often, either passing the ball up or looking for the short jumper or floater. Because of this, he doesn’t get to the line that often for the amount of shots that he takes. He does have some problems finishing at the basket against long defenders, though he has shown some creativity. On defense, Paige can be slow to react to his man at times, and when he is off the ball, he can become too focused on following the ball and lose his man. He has improved his ability to get over screens, and he has also did a better job using angles to force his man towards help defenders. Paige can be an impact player at the next level, though a lot of that will depend on his ability to create more for others. His shooting ability will force defenders to play him tight and he should be able to break down defenses.

Sam Dekker, Wisconsin, Forward, 6’9, 230

(2013-14, 29.8 mpg) 12.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.8 spg

46.9 FG%, 68.6 FT%, 32.6 3FG%, 55.8 TS%, 52.8 eFG%

22.8 USG%, 7.3 OREB%, 17.5 DREB%, 12.5 REB%

Dekker is athletic and savvy, has a strong understanding of the game and his role, and is still developing as a player. At 6’9, he can be a match-up problem on the wings. He is a strong perimeter shooter, with a quick release and good range.  Though his three-point shooting percentage was down last season, he has shown that he can hit the shot consistently when open. He gets into triple-threat position on almost every catch, uses shot fakes well to get the defender off-balance, and is capable of hitting mid- and long-range jumpers off the dribble. Dekker is a good ballhandler for his size, and relies on long strides to get to the basket.  He is able to finish creatively around the basket, as well as above the rim. Dekker has shown the ability to post-up defenders, and he has some good moves to the get to the basket quickly. Dekker runs the floor well in transition, and is able to push the ball himself or run one of the wings. Dekker has very good defensive awareness, and is fundamentally solid. He gets good position on and off the ball, and he works hard to get over screens on the perimeter. Dekker uses his length well to get into passing lanes. He uses his athleticism well to hit the boards on both ends, and as he develops his body more, he could have more of an impact.

What he needs to show this season:  Dekker could stand to be more aggressive looking to score when he has the ball, though that may not work well in Bo Ryan’s offense. He can still work on his ballhandling ability, especially making sure to not let the ball get too far away from his body as he makes a move to the basket. Adding strength will be important for Dekker as he matures, as will his ability to draw and finish through contact around the basket. He has shown that he can hit jumpers off the dribble, but at times he will fade to one side when he is shooting, causing his shot to be off, as well as adjusting his release when a defender closes. On defense, Dekker is capable of guarding multiple positions, but he needs to work on his foot speed, as well as keeping his lateral movement smooth over longer stretches. Dekker is a legitimate NBA prospect, and his versatility on both ends of the floor will make him attractive. He just needs to continue to develop upon his solid skill foundation.

Przemek Karnowski, Gonzaga, Center, 7’1, 288

(2013-14, 24.7 mpg) 10.4 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.7 bpg

59.3 FG%, 50.0 FT%, 57.6 TS%, 59.3 eFG%

22.9 USG%, 10.1 OREB%, 21.7 DREB%, 16.4 REB%, 7.1 BLK%

Karnowski is a massive presence on the court, and he logged significantly more minutes his sophomore season.  He is fundamentally sound on both ends of the floor and he has a good feel for the game. When he gets good position on the low block, it is very tough for a defender to get around him, and his ability to seal defenders off opens up big lanes to the basket for his teammates. Karnowski has also shown impressive footwork for someone his size, and he seems to be adjusting to more physical play. He has good touch around the basket and when he gets in deep, there isn’t much to do to stop him from getting an easy basket other than foul him. Karnowski has also shown some ability to hit 10-foot jumpers consistently. On defense, Karnowski seems to have good awareness and he understands how to defend the post. He does a good job looking to box out when a shot goes up. Karnowski is very good about making sure he gets his long arms up whenever there is a shot around the rim.

What he needs to show this season: Karnowski has the potential to be a strong post player, but he needs to continue to develop all facets of the post-game.  It starts with him getting tougher when looking to establish position and being assertive calling for the ball. He has to be careful not to put the ball on the floor too often when making a move and he has to work on being able to make moves on both sides of the floor, over both shoulders. A lefty, Karnowski needs to be able to take even short shots effectively with his right hand, though he did look to do it more often last season. Karnowski also needs to become a much better free throw shooter. His form is pretty good, so the adjustments shouldn’t be too major. On defense, Karnowski understands what he should be doing, but he doesn’t have the footwork or foot speed to often do it. More important, Karnowski needs to be more aggressive going after rebounds. He does a good job establishing position and putting a body on someone, but he needs to go after the ball strong and not just wait for it to fall. Once he gets the rebound, he has to watch a tendency to drop it down low where an opponent can take a swipe at it. Karnowski has a tough time defending in pick-and-roll situations, either not being able to recover well if he does hedge, or not hedging and giving the ballhandler room to get a shot off or make a move off the dribble. Karnowski looked to be in better shape as a sophomore, but he can still have some issues when the Zags look to pick up the pace.