2015 NBA Draft Watch List: Seniors, Part Eleven
By Ed Isaacson
It’s just a few weeks from the start of college basketball season and the road to the 2015 NBA Draft has begun. It’s time to start taking some early looks at players who are already on the NBA’s radar, or have enough skill or potential to break through this season.
Players will be broken down by class, starting with the seniors. Overall, the list will contain between 50 and 60 seniors, 30 to 40 juniors, and 20 to 30 sophomores.
These are not meant to replace scouting reports, which will come out during the season. These are not all-inclusive and just meant as a brief primer for those who want to track draft prospects throughout the season. These are also not in any particular order other than who I choose to write about each post.
Kenneth Smith, Louisiana Tech, Guard, 6’3, 180
(2013-14, 30.4 mpg) 7.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 7.7 apg, 2.5 spg
42.3 FG%, 65.5 FT%, 36.5 3FG%, 53.7 TS%, 50.9 eFG%
14.9 USG%, 3.2:1 A/TO, 41.6 AST%, 24.9 TOV%, 4.6 STL%
“Speedy” Smith is coming off a season where he was second in the NCAA in assists per game, was First Team Conference USA, and the Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year. As his nickname tells you, Smith is incredibly fast, especially when he gets out in the open floor. Tech thrived off of getting out in transition last season, and Smith’s ability to get the ball up the court quickly and make good decisions led to many easy baskets. Even in the halfcourt, Smith has very good vision and makes some very strong passes, though he can take a lot of chances, especially with cross-court passes. He understands court spacing well and he makes good reads off of high screens. Smith is a good ballhandler, and he has a nice burst of speed to get by his man into the defense where he is very good at finding open teammates. Smith is a good perimeter shooter, with long range, when he has time to get set, and he does a good job using his dribble and screens to create space. Defensively, Smith can be a pest, able to pick up his man full court, and showing good lateral movement and foot speed. He is quick to react off the ball, which helps him get a lot of turnovers in Tech’s pressure defense. Smith rebounds well for his size, and he is very good at tracking shots and getting to spots quickly to grab the miss, allowing him to start the team in transition quickly.
What he needs to show this season: Smith does a great job running the Louisiana Tech offense, but scoring chances can be tough to come by on his own. Last season, Smith was seventh in field goals attempted for the Bulldogs, though that also shows some good balance. He can be too unselfish at times, especially when he gets into the defense, where his first instinct always seems to be to pass. Smith can have some problems finishing around the basket, and he can be hesitant to initiate contact, shooting only 84 free throws all season. Even his perimeter shooting can be inconsistent, though last season’s Conference USA Tournament showed what can happen if you give him time and space to shoot. As I mentioned above, Smith can take a lot of chances with the passes he throws, especially many cross-court passes off the dribble. He can try to force the action too much at times, and needs to be able to show some more patience. He makes good reads in pick-and-roll situations, though he needs to continue improving how quickly he makes them. On defense, Smith needs to work harder on getting through and over screens, and though he can pressure the ball well, he needs to watch overplaying against good ballhandlers. Smith has the toughness and leadership abilities that pro teams crave in a point guard, and in the right system, he can continue to put up big assist numbers at the professional level. His ability to score consistently can determine where he will be in the future.
Darrun Hilliard, Villanova, Guard, 6’6, 215
(2013-14, 29.1 mpg) 14.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.3 spg
48.6 FG%, 71.8 FT%, 41.4 3FG%, 62.2 TS%, 59.4 eFG%
24.0 USG%, 19.3 AST%, 16.3 TOV%, 2.6 STL%
Hilliard had one of the more underappreciated seasons nationally last year, though he did come away as the Big East’s Co-Most Improved Player. Hilliard has good size at the shooting guard position, and combined with his quick, left-handed release on his jumper, gives him a lot of clean looks at the basket. He moves well without the ball, filling gaps quickly, and he has a great understanding of how court spacing works. Though known mainly for his shooting ability, Hilliard is also a good scorer and playmaker off the dribble. He uses both hands well, keeps his head up, and does a good job reading the defense when he attacks the basket. Hilliard uses his body well to create separation around the basket, as well as to draw contact. His ability to finish with either hand at the rim allows him many angles from which to attack. Hilliard doesn’t force many bad shots, and his ability to see the floor well allows him to avoid getting into bad situations. Defensively, Hilliard is average, but he has very good awareness and he uses his length well to disrupt shots and passing lanes on the perimeter. Though he doesn’t have great speed, he runs the floor very well and he has the ability to push the ball himself or run one of the wings in transition, where he is a very efficient finisher.
What he needs to show this season: Hilliard’s game has made great strides over the past couple of seasons, and he is at the point where most of his skills need more polish than major improvement. He can work a bit on coming off of screens tighter, both with and without the ball. Also, he can continue to improve his ballhandling skills and ability to get to the basket off the dribble. On defense, he can continue to work on his lateral movement and foot speed, as well as learning to play angles better. Hilliard fits the mold of what many teams are now using as the “3 and D” role. Hilliard’s size, ability to shoot, and improving defense will make him one of the Big East’s best players, as well as a possible NBA candidate in the future.
Wesley Saunders, Harvard, Guard/Forward, 6’5, 215
(2013-14, 33.7 mpg) 14.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.7 spg
46.4 FG%, 76.3 FT%, 29.4 3FG%, 55.0 TS%, 48.0 eFG%
24.0 USG%, 24.4 AST%, 3.2 STL%
Saunders built on a very good sophomore season by winning the Ivy League Player of the Year as a junior, and his play has been one of the reasons why Harvard has made a splash on the national scene. For a wing, Saunders in unique in that almost all of his scoring attempts are within the arc. He has only taken 54 three-point attempts the past two seasons, hitting just 20. Saunders is very good at using his size to post up smaller defenders, and he has an impressive array of moves for a guard. He also likes to attack off the dribble, using screens to spring free, and he is aggressive on his way to the rim. Saunders doesn’t shy from contact and he is good at finding ways to finish through the foul. He does a good job getting square to the basket for his jumper and he has a nice, high release, though his release point can be inconsistent. Saunders has been a great fit in Tommy Amaker’s offense, and his ability to recognize spacing and find open teammates is impressive. Defensively, Saunders is fundamentally sound and has good awareness. He is at his best off the ball, where he anticipates well and disrupts passing lanes.
What he needs to show this season: While Saunders had an impressive season; he really didn’t show much improvement from the year before. He still needs to show more of a perimeter game than he does now. Saunders needs to work on moving without the ball, using screens to get open and being ready to shoot off the catch. He also needs to not only become comfortable and consistent from behind the 3-point line; he should also work on creating his own jumper. Saunders needs to become a better ballhandler, especially with his left hand. On defense, Saunders is fundamentally sound, as mentioned, but he needs to work on becoming quicker, both in foot speed and lateral movement. He also needs to learn to play angles better once he is beat off the dribble, finding a point to cut off his man instead of just chasing.
Amir Williams, Ohio State, Center, 6’11, 250
(2013-14, 23.1 mpg) 7.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.8 bpg
59.8 FG%, 65.1 FT%, 61.8 TS%, 59.8 eFG%
17.9 USG%, 12.2 OREB%, 17.6 DREB%, 15.0 REB%, 8.4 BLK%
Williams has been the Buckeyes’ starter in the middle for almost the past two seasons. While he is not an integral part of the offense, his contributions are important for the scorers. Williams uses his big body well to set screens on the perimeter as well as seal off post defenders. His post scoring opportunities have been fairly limited, but he can be an efficient scorer on second-chance attempts, as well as getting to the basket when a driver draws his defender. Williams has shown decent touch around the basket, as well as the ability to finish very strong. His post moves are limited, but his footwork has improved a lot over the past few seasons, including showing a nice drop-step when he gets good position in the low post. Williams has also made improvement as a defender, showing improved awareness and footwork. He shows good extension on his shot-blocking attempts and he can be quick to get into help position as a weak-side defender.
What he needs to show this season: While Williams has made improvements in many areas, he still hasn’t shown that he can have a major impact in a game, especially on offense. He needs to work on using his body better to get position in the post, as well as work on getting into his moves quicker. Williams has good size, but he can be more aggressive on his moves and not let himself be pushed away from the basket. He’s a good screener on the perimeter, but he can be slow to open up to the ball in pick-and-roll situations, leaving little chance for the ball to be delivered to him in a good spot. Defensively, he really needs to watch his hands and upper body when defending the post, and learn to use his lower body better to force his man away. Also, while being a good shot blocker, he falls for fakes easily, getting drawn into the air, and picking up bad fouls. With his size, Williams could be a better rebounder, but while he gets good position, he can be slow to react to the ball. Williams is a classic role player at the center position, but there is still a lot of room for improvement, though with the Ohio State offense, he may not get the chances he needs to show what he may be capable of.