You might make the assumption that they’re mostly franchise players or at least players who make an impact right away. But by looking at the history of second overall draft picks from the last decade, it’s clear that these coveted franchise-changing players aren’t very common. It’s difficult to make the “right” or “safe” pick regardless of how much research and effort is expended in evaluating prospects. Jabari Parker seems to be both the right and safe pick.
The history of these second overall picks is somewhat notorious for underachieving and/or not living up to their lofty expectations. Jabari Parker is aware of this. From Brett Pollakoff of ProBasketballTalk:
“There’s been a lot of second pick busts,” Parker said Saturday morning, at the grand opening of the redesigned Jordan space inside Nike Chicago. “I’m just trying not to be that bust. Everyday that I step on the court, I just remind myself that I have a long ways to go. If I want to be one of those guys in the first tier of the NBA, like a LeBron, like a Kobe, like a [Blake Griffin], then I have to have that mentality starting off from the ground, and work my way up.”
At 19, Parker is very talented and everybody raves about his work ethic. He’s been compared to Carmelo Anthony with his ability to shoot, rebound and play both forward positions. There are some concerns about Parker though. It looks like he carries some extra weight, he may not be quick enough to guard small forwards and he lacks the size needed to guard opposing power forwards. All in all, he definitely seems like a sure thing. Only time will tell if he was the right pick for the Bucks. Parker looked good in a scrimmage a few days ago, even though it was just a scrimmage against the Bucks.
Every year has to be evaluated independently and a top pick from one year can’t be compared to the same pick in another year. Time will tell but Victor Oladipo was probably about the second best player last year and he can become a very good franchise-changing two-way play player, but he probably won’t be a franchise player for the Orlando Magic (in one of the worst drafts ever). He also can’t be compared to other No. 2 overall picks such as LaMarcus Aldridge or Kevin Durant.
Michael Beasley was one player who definitely seemed like a sure thing after dominating at Kansas State in his freshman year. No one would have predicted Beasley would be on four teams in his first seven seasons. The lesson is that while Parker projects to be a great player, anything is possible.
Talent varies greatly from year to year. All a team can do is do their due diligence, pick the best player available in that particular year and cross their fingers – unless you draft a sure thing like Kevin Durant. Below is a list of number two overall picks in the last ten years. They’re categorized as “hit” or “miss” based on what the number two overall pick’s expectations were given the talent in that year’s draft and what alternatives there were.
There can be many good players left for a team with the second pick and they may be mesmerized by a player’s potential and their needs rather than looking at what the player can realistically become. This is probably what happened when the Memphis Grizzlies chose Hasheem Thabeet in 2009 when there were at least a few other better, less risky picks (James Harden, Stephen Curry and more). Hindsight is 20/20 but there were safer picks than Thabeet. Jabari Parker seems to fit the Milwaukee Bucks’ needs and if he can become anything close to Carmelo Anthony, the Bucks will be ecstatic.