Denver Nuggets: Ty Lawson Predicts A Top Four Finish
Ty Lawson must be liking what he’s seeing at Denver Nuggets training camp so far, because he told the Denver Post the Nuggets will finish as a top four seed in the Western Conference this season.
“Yeah, I see a playoff team,” Lawson said in the interview, “I see a top-four team in the West. If everybody stays healthy and we’re all playing together, there’s no reason why we shouldn’t be in a playoff run. Nobody thought we were going to be a top-four team the year we won 57 games (two years ago). So I think the sky’s the limit for us as long as we’re playing well and everybody is focused.”
It’s good to see the Nuggets general’s confidence in this roster and his team, but is he being realistic? Or is Lawson just saying that because he feels like he has to? The top four teams in the West last season — the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets — all finished with 54 or more wins, and the fifth-seeded Portland Trailblazers also reaching 54 wins. It’s going to take a similar amount of wins to be in the top four of the conference this season too.
Do the Nuggets have enough to win that many games, and back up their point guard’s claims? Given the offseason addition of shooting guard Arron Afflalo, and the return of a healthy Danilo Gallinari, JaVale McGee, J.J. Hickson and Nate Robinson, they definitely have a shot.
Afflalo gives the Nuggets the last piece to be three deep at every single position. He comes into a team whose core of Lawson, Faried, and Gallinari was a top four Western Conference team just two seasons ago when that squad won a franchise high 57 games. The biggest difference between the two teams now that the Nuggets are healthy is that Afflalo will play in Iguodala’s starting shooting guard spot. Good news for Lawson’s prediction, because Afflalo has the skills to match Iguodala’s productivity.
Iguodala averaged 13 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game in a Nuggets uniform during the 57-win season. Last season in Orlando, Afflalo averaged 18.2 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game. However, Iguodala’s biggest contribution was usually on the defensive end. In that department, Afflalo looks like a solid replacement as well. Iguodala’s defensive rating (opposing points scored over 100 defensive possessions for Iguodala) was 105 that season, and Afflalo’s was 111 in his last season as a Nugget.
On paper, that looks like Afflalo is “six points worse” on defense than Iguodala was, so he’s not an exact replacement. However, defense is one of the hardest things to measure in basketball statistics, and George Karl wasn’t exactly stressing lockdown defense when Afflalo was playing in Denver. Afflalo has a reputation on defense, and Bill Simmons said you can count on him for “excellent defense” night in and night out when he last was a Nugget.
Brian Shaw is also better suited to really take advantage of Afflalo’s defensive skills than George Karl. Under Shaw’s defensive system it’s clear Afflalo can contribute just as much on defense that Iguodala did two seasons ago.
Although Lawson’s statement seems bold now, it’s not as crazy when you consider they did it just two seasons ago. The Nuggets have all the pieces they needed to win 57 games two years ago after adding a shooting guard that can lead and contribute on the defensive end as well as the offensive end in Afflalo. With Brian Shaw committing to the fast break in training camp this year, they’ll be running a similar offensive system, and Ty Lawson will have a chance to back up his prediction this season and get the Denver Nuggets to 55 wins, and a top four seed.