NBA: A Look at the West’s Dominance Over the East
By Shane Young
The NBA is one-sided. Eastern Conference squads can’t hold a torch to the West. This league has the worst discrepancy in competition of all the major professional sports. The Kansas Jayhawks or Duke Blue Devils could take down the Philadelphia 76ers if they wanted to.
These were all the statements and rumblings we heard last winter.
As the first two months of the 2013-14 season concluded, you couldn’t fathom the difference in the two conferences. The East was in the hands of the Indiana Pacers, as they were the only team that appeared “great.” Even the Miami Heat, led by LeBron James, was struggling to find lineup consistency, forcing them into many losses.
Out West, the season turned into bloodshed. The clash between middle-of-the-pack teams, fighting for playoff seeding, brought fear to the eyes of many fans. When Phoenix is missing the playoffs while taking 48 victories and Atlanta is squeezing in with 37, there’s a conflict.
Sure, the issue is the playoff format, and how eight teams from each conference are selected for the NBA Playoffs. However, that’s exactly how we would envision the postseason in any sport. It’s supposed to be the best from each conference battling for a championship in any professional organization. Last season, that method seemed lunatic. Rewarding teams below .500 with a playoff slot — regardless of the situation — doesn’t make sense for a major, aggressive league. Since the NBA has been pushing strongly for “competitive balance,” it’s not helping the cause by having mediocrity in the playoffs.
An entirely separate discussion would arise if we sorted through playoff changes. The proposed 16-team playoff, where the 16 best teams (record wise) make the postseason regardless of conference placement, will be a logical solution. But, we’re not expected to see those changes so quickly.
In the sense of overwhelming dominance, it hasn’t been close for the two conferences. Sadly enough, this has held true for both the regular season, and the playoffs.
Looking back into the vault of NBA history, the best way to gather consistent, straight-forward results was by choosing a certain period of time.
For the sake of evaluating the East and West gap, I looked solely at the last 15 years. That dates back to the 1999-2000 season, so basically the start of the 21st century. Reason being? There’s still a team (and a couple players) from that era that are still wrecking the league.
What’s the conclusive goal in basketball, or any sport in general? It’s not to win regular season games. It’s not to reach the playoffs. It’s not to have the best offseason.
The aspiration is to win championship(s). Not one, not two, not three. Winning as many as you possibly can during a career should be the common objective.
In the NBA, there’s one conference that’s shined above all expectations in terms of winning in the postseason. Since 2000, the West has accounted for 66.7 percent of the championship trophies, winning 10 of the last 15.
This isn’t a love-fest for the West, or even a scathing attack on the East. Most of us live out East, and the time zones make it more favorable throughout the whole season. There’s a ton of excitement near the top of the East, and everyone has their preference on which games they’d rather watch.
But, one could greatly argue that the last three champions from the East (Miami 2x, Boston) all depended on their formation of “big threes.” It’s not “cheating” your way to a title, or even “buying” your way to a ring, but it has a subliminal message. They had to combine into brutes in order to dethrone the West. While the Spurs have been credited for their “big three” in Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili, you don’t think about their skill levels in the same way you do of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. You imagine those guys as superstar talents, with none being role players off the bench. A different route was taken, and that’s okay.
What’s even more incredible about the West is the fact of all 10 championships coming from three franchises (Lakers, Spurs, Mavericks). Every year, you can either pencil in San Antonio, Los Angeles, or Miami for the final round. One of those will be in the NBA Finals each year, as it’s never failed since 1999.
In 2013-14, the conference disparity was horrific. In fact, it was at the worst mark of the last 15 years, with the West accumulating 674 total wins throughout the year. From teams 1-15, that was a 44.9 win average for each. From the Eastern Conference, teams 1-15 combined for 556 victories, coming out to a 37 win average. By the time March came around, there was strong indications of the West playoffs needing 50 or even 51 wins to lock up a spot. The East has never had that strength.
Since the start of this 21st century, how many seasons would you estimate the East having more total wins than the West? It’s happened only twice, the most recent being in 2008-09:
Preposterous would be the way to describe it. During that 2008-09 season, Boston was fresh off a championship run, and was still loaded to the top with 61 wins. A king in Cleveland pushed the Cavaliers to the 66-win plateau, which was the first time in LeBron’s career that he reached 66 wins. Those two juggernauts were responsible for the conference out-shining the West.
Besides that season & 1999-2000, the closest the East and West have been was back in 2001-02, in which only three wins separated the two.
Throw into the equation that the West only had 14 teams in the conference up until 2004-05, and it becomes even more amazing. The West was out-performing the East, despite being undermanned.
Now, the misleading part of the visual could be the 2011-12 season. As you recall, it was the infamous lockout year, where the NBA Players Association & the owners couldn’t agree to a new CBA before the start of the season. As a result, they only played 66 games that year, resulting in 990 total wins in the league.
In other words, don’t look at the graph and think both conferences just had horrible seasons. Even though the season was shortened by a lockout, the West was still 42 wins greater than the East in 2011-12.
Every other season — not in a lockout — has to equate to 1,230 wins from all 30 teams … nothing more and nothing less. Of course, there are always crazy exceptions, such as the Boston Bombing in 2013. It cancelled a game in Boston, so that season was only 1,229 wins.
But, if you want to understand how dramatically stronger the West got in 2013-14, take into account their recent trends.
Other than the lockout season, the West was hovering around the 635-650 win mark consistently. Just take another look at the line graph, and notice what happened in 2013-14. The West improved to an all-time high, and the East downgraded to the worst mark in 15 years. No wonder there was so much hysteria over the competitive balance.
When discussing conference discrepancy, there’s a ton of deplorable teams that skew the conversation. Yes, we’re looking right at you, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Utah, and Sacramento. There’s obviously another handful of teams that are always bottom-feeders, but I just chose them as examples because they all had disappointing seasons in 2013-14.
So, in order to eliminate that skew, you could always take a deep look at the playoff teams. Looking only at teams 1-8 in the East and West, the last 15 years don’t favor the East at all:
In the postseason cut, there was only one season where the East earned more victories than the West. Similar to the regular season, it came in 2008-09, where the top of the conference was packed. It also ended up being the worst season for the West (besides the lockout). Altogether, the West’s top eight seeds have only failed to reach 400 total wins once — in 2008-09.
From the No. 1 seed to the No. 8, the West has averaged 51.6 wins since 1999-2000. For the East, it’s only been 47.1 wins on average. Over the course of the last 15 years, it’s taken more wins to reach the playoffs out West than it has in the East. I doubt there’s any surprises there.
At the tail end of the data, there’s obviously numbers that haven’t actually been recorded yet. The 2014-15 projections have been included in the data, and those were posted in September. I set the Eastern Conference for 600 total victories (from 1-15) for the upcoming season, which leaves the West at 630.
Originally, it was thought that the West would continue their breathtaking pace and climb towards 670 again, but that’s just not plausible this season. Sure, the West has received even more ammunition and improved, but the East will experience a shakeup. From top to bottom, we expect the Cavaliers, Bulls, Hornets, Wizards, Hawks, and even Raptors to improve their win totals from last season. It only seems logical, given the respective pieces they’ve added to their rosters. Therefore, the West likely won’t break the 674 mark again.
With the amount of fandom Adam Silver and the NBA are bringing to the sport, this serves as the best time to achieve balance. Not just by trying to eliminate All-Star lineups and getting free agents in smaller markets, but also by improving the bottom-line playoff standard.
People want the greatest possible talent in the postseason.
While it’s not completely there yet in the East, it’s moving in the right direction. Meanwhile, the West can look back on the years they’ve fought these gruesome wars with each other, and feel proud of themselves.
Perhaps it’s time to heavily appreciate the Spurs more than anyone ever has, since they’re aiming for their sixth title in the last 17 seasons.
Take anything away from it that you want. Whatever the case may be, the NBA is now shining brighter than any other. Even the NFL won’t be able to compete with this league in the coming years.