2015 NBA Draft Watch List: Seniors, Part Three

We are less than two months from the start of college basketball season and the road to the 2015 NBA Draft has begun.  It’s time to start taking some early looks at players who are already on the NBA’s radar, or have enough skill or potential to break through this season.

Players will be broken down by class, starting with the seniors.  Overall, the list will contain between 50 and 60 seniors, 30 to 40 juniors, and 20 to 30 sophomores.

These are not meant to replace scouting reports, which will come out during the season.  These are not all-inclusive and just meant as a brief primer for those who want to track draft prospects throughout the season.  These are also not in any particular order other than who I choose to write about each post.

Branden Dawson, Michigan State, Forward, 6’6, 225

(2013-14, 28.3 mpg) 11.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.3 spg

61.3 FG%, 65.6 FT%, 62.2 TS%, 61.3 eFG%

19.0 USG%, 13.0 OREB%, 21.3 DREB%, 17.3 REB%

Dawson has an NBA body and very good athleticism, but he has spent the last few years being overshadowed by players such as Gary Harris, Adreian Payne, and Keith Appling, as he continued to develop as a strong role player. With Harris, Payne, and Appling gone, as well as a many young teammates, Dawson now needs to step up and be the leader of the Spartans.  Dawson uses his strong body well to establish position in the post, and using it to back down defenders.  While he doesn’t have many post moves, he does a good job finishing through contact. Dawson has also shown the ability to hit a turnaround jumper out of the post, as well as a decent mid-range jumper. With more accomplished scorers around him the past few years, Dawson has made a name for himself as a very good offensive rebounder.  Dawson’s strength and quickness allow him to get to the missed shot quickly and get a good shot off before the defense recovers.  Even if he can’t get to the rebound immediately, he is very active and does a good job keeping balls alive until he or a teammate can get to it. Dawson sees the floor well and is capable of making some good passes, though he will try to force some tough looks.  Defensively, Dawson does a very good job using his strength to his advantage.  He positions himself and moves his feet well on both the perimeter and in the post. As on the offensive boards, Dawson is a very good defensive rebounder for his size, and he does a good job challenging shots in the lane.  Dawson runs the floor well in transition and is capable of some very strong finishes if he gets the ball with some room in front of him.

What he needs to show this season:  As I wrote above, it is time for Dawson to step up from role player to leader and one of the team’s go-to guys. Dawson’s offensive touches have been limited the past three years – he took just 222 shots in twenty-eight games last year – so he will need to adjust to a much bigger role in the Michigan State offense.  Dawson has always been an effective scorer, though he also takes a large majority of his shots around the basket. At just 6’6 and 225 pounds, Dawson will need to expand his offensive game to get to the NBA. He has shown that he can hit the mid-range jumper, though not consistently, and he hasn’t shown range beyond the area. Also, Dawson should be able to use his athleticism to drive past defenders on the perimeter, though he would need to improve his ballhandling skills. He is much more comfortable going to his right than his left, and even his post moves are prominently to his right hand. On defense, Dawson has always done much better defending larger power forwards, rather than wings who may be active on the perimeter.  At the next level, Dawson will need to be able to do a more consistent job guarding the perimeter. He gets good position and moves his feet well, but he can have trouble getting turned around by an offensive player who moves often off the ball. Dawson also doesn’t change directions very quickly and is susceptible to crossovers and similar moves.  Dawson has all the tools to be an NBA player, it’s up to him to put them to use this next season.

Juwan Staten, West Virginia, Guard, 6’1, 190

(2013-14, 37.3 mpg) 18.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 5.8 apg, 1.2 spg

 48.5 FG%, 71.9 FT%, 40.0 3FG%, 55.0 TS%, 49.2 eFG%

 24.8 USG%, 2.8:1 A/TO, 14.7 DREB%, 32.4 AST%, 11.3 TO%

Staten made a giant leap in his second season at West Virginia after transferring from Dayton. Staten has tremendous speed pushing the ball up the floor, but he also very good at running the Mountaineers’ offense in halfcourt situations.  He is a very strong ballhandler, and he is equally strong with his left and right hands. Staten also has a full complement of advanced dribbles he uses to keep defenders off balance. He is at his best when he uses his speed and ballhandling ability to get into the lane. Though Staten could have some difficulty finishing around the basket due to his size, he can be creative to find angles to score. Also, because of Staten’s speed once he gets past his man, he is very good at drawing contact from defenders who are slow to rotate over. Staten sees the floor well, and he is very good at finding open teammates off of penetration. He is very quick in the open floor, though, if he can’t get to the rim, he is good at finding his teammates on the wing, or pulling the ball out. On defense, Staten is a pest and he uses his quick feet to his advantage. He maintains good position on and off the ball, and he has shown very good lateral movement.  Staten also anticipates and changes directions well. Staten rebounds extremely well for his size, doing a good job tracking shots and getting to spots quickly to grab the ball.

What he needs to show this season:  Staten had shown his point guard ability since he started college, but the scoring he showed last year was tremendous.  With Eron Harris gone, teams will have most of their focus on Staten and he will need to make some more adjustments.  He will need to continue to develop his jumper, both his mid-range and long-range shots. Yes, he did shoot 40 percent from three-point range, but it was on just fifteen shots. Also, I’d like to see Staten continue to develop his ability to make quick and proper reads on the pick-and-roll. Defensively, Staten really needs to improve on his ability to get through screens, especially getting over them and not having to rely on switches because he gets caught in them.  Staten may not have the size that many NBA teams are looking for at the point, but he’s skilled, makes good decisions, and plays good defense, which will have him on many team’s radars all season.

Treveon Graham, Virginia Commonwealth, Guard/Forward, 6’6, 220

(2013-14, 28.3 mpg) 15.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.9 spg

 43.7 FG%, 69.4 FT%, 33.7 3FG%, 54.4 TS%, 50.6 eFG%

27.4 USG%, 7.0 OREB%, 21.2 DREB%, 13.5 REB%, 15.3 AST%

Graham has done a tremendous job the past few seasons as one of Shaka Smart’s key players in his HAVOC system.  A versatile guard/forward, Graham is able to handle many different assignments on offense and defense for the Rams. Defensively, Graham can be placed anywhere in the HAVOC setup, though he is at his best when he is at the top or in the back of the defense. His size can be disruptive to smaller guards, and he moves his feet very well, even against quicker players.  In halfcourt situations, Graham can guard multiple positions, and on the perimeter or in the post. In the post, he uses his body well to defend against bigger players, and he is a good help defender in most spots on the floor. Graham is a very good defensive rebounder, using his body well to box out and going strong after the ball. On offense, Graham is a tough scorer around the basket and he uses his strength and athleticism well to make quick moves to the basket. He has shown that he can hit his jumper from long-range, though his shot selection isn’t always great. Like the rest of his teammates, Graham thrives on the turnovers created by HAVOC, and he is quick to capitalize on the offensive end when he or a teammate gets a steal. Graham is a decent ballhandler, and Smart used him often to bring up the ball on offense and get the team into it. This also allows him to grab rebounds and start the team in transition.

What he needs to show this season:  Graham fills so many different roles for the Rams, but it’s tough to pinpoint an area where he excels. At the next level, Graham will probably be on the wing, but he needs to become a more consistent long-range shooter, as well as improving his ballhandling enough to drive to the rim. He has a tendency to pull up early on his drives to the basket, partly because he doesn’t have good acceleration to the basket, but also because he doesn’t seem confident that he can beat his man. Also, he will need to be able to defend quicker players on the wing, without the security blanket of HAVOC creating chaos. Graham has come along very well in all areas of his game the past few years, and as long as he keeps building on it, he will be a very good professional player.

Joshua Smith, Georgetown, Center, 6’10, 350

(2013-14, 13 games, 19.9 mpg) 11.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.0 spg

 65.5 FG%, 63.5 FT%, 65.8 TS%, 65.5 eFG%

27.7 USG%, 10.7 OREB%, 10.0 DREB%, 10.4 REB%

Before last season, I wrote that it was probably Smith’s last chance to show what he can do after a tumultuous career at UCLA. Well after academic issues sidelined Smith after just 13 games last season, he is back for one more go-round, though I’m not sure how much has changed. Conditioning issues have always limited Smith’s time on the court, but when he was on the floor, you still saw a lot of the skill he possesses for his size.  Smith uses his huge body well to get position in the post, and when he gets the ball deep, there aren’t many who will stop him; and if they try, there is a good chance they will foul him.  He has good footwork for his size and excellent touch around the basket.  He can be a good passer out of the post and he does a good job sealing off his man for his teammates to attack the lane, both which showed some promise in his limited time last season.

What he needs to show this season:  Conditioning and consistency continue to hound Smith and continues to have trouble staying on the floor.  While he shows good footwork on offense, he doesn’t move very well on the defensive end at all.  He is the first 300+ pound player who I’ve seen get backed down easily in the post and when he gets beat he will commit silly fouls, sending him to the bench.  Between his lack of conditioning and these other missteps, Smith never gets into any kind of rhythm on the floor, leaving him to contribute very little.  Also disheartening is how someone Smith’s size can be such a poor rebounder. He needs to put more effort into getting after missed shots and not just waiting for them to fall to him. If he can get these areas fixed, the focus can then turn to doing a better job getting out to defend on pick-and-rolls and getting better position as a help defender. Hopefully, Smith takes this last college chance seriously and starts to live up at least a bit to his massive potential.