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Being near the end of the offseason it’s only fair we start looking at team’s proposed rotations around the league. Today’s subject: The Houston Rockets.
A lot has been made about Rockets’ inability to shine or perform at the expected level during the offseason. The Rockets not only lost a cheap last year from rising star Chandler Parsons by not exercising a team option on his contract, they also became a widely unpopular destination among the league’s top free agents/trade targets–Chris Bosh, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Love–by not being able to land any of them despite having the cap space to do so.
They ultimately had to settle on signing Trevor Ariza and becoming the biggest bust in the 2014 offseason.
How bad a turn did they take in the Offseason, you ask? Let’s see.
1. What they could’ve had:
a) Chris Bosh
| Rk | Player | G | FG% | 3P% | 2P% | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Beverley | 97 | .415 | .365 | .470 | .818 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 8.3 |
| 2 | Chris Bosh | 796 | .498 | .310 | .507 | .800 | 2.3 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 19.2 |
| 3 | James Harden | 371 | .445 | .369 | .499 | .849 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 18.0 |
| 4 | Dwight Howard | 768 | .579 | .087 | .581 | .574 | 3.6 | 9.3 | 12.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 18.3 |
| 5 | Chandler Parsons | 213 | .473 | .370 | .534 | .705 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 14.1 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/25/2014.
Total Win Shares: 40.6
b) Carmelo Anthony
| Rk | Player | G | FG% | 3P% | 2P% | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carmelo Anthony | 790 | .455 | .345 | .476 | .811 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 25.3 |
| 2 | Patrick Beverley | 97 | .415 | .365 | .470 | .818 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 8.3 |
| 3 | James Harden | 371 | .445 | .369 | .499 | .849 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 18.0 |
| 4 | Dwight Howard | 768 | .579 | .087 | .581 | .574 | 3.6 | 9.3 | 12.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 18.3 |
| 5 | Terrence Jones | 95 | .532 | .300 | .573 | .618 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 10.8 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/25/2014.
Total Win Shares: 43
c) LeBron James
| Rk | Player | G | FG% | 3P% | 2P% | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Beverley | 97 | .415 | .365 | .470 | .818 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 8.3 |
| 2 | James Harden | 371 | .445 | .369 | .499 | .849 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 18.0 |
| 3 | Dwight Howard | 768 | .579 | .087 | .581 | .574 | 3.6 | 9.3 | 12.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 18.3 |
| 4 | LeBron James | 842 | .497 | .341 | .535 | .747 | 1.2 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 27.5 |
| 5 | Chandler Parsons | 213 | .473 | .370 | .534 | .705 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 14.1 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/25/2014.
Total Win Shares: 48.5
2. What they ended up with:
| Rk | Player | G | FG% | 3P% | 2P% | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor Ariza | 632 | .434 | .347 | .474 | .696 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 9.7 |
| 2 | Patrick Beverley | 97 | .415 | .365 | .470 | .818 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 8.3 |
| 3 | James Harden | 371 | .445 | .369 | .499 | .849 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 18.0 |
| 4 | Dwight Howard | 768 | .579 | .087 | .581 | .574 | 3.6 | 9.3 | 12.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 18.3 |
| 5 | Terrence Jones | 95 | .532 | .300 | .573 | .618 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 10.8 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/25/2014.
Total Win Shares: 40.3
So, had the Rockets succeeded at landing either LeBron, Bosh or Carmelo and assembling either of the schemes under No. 1, even in the Western Conference, they would’ve turned into instant title contenders.
To prove this here’s a look at the total win shares of the starting lineups for the top five teams in the Western Conference:
- San Antonio Spurs (Tony Parker, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Boris Diaw, Tim Duncan): 30.1 (Massive outlier. This just further proves the balance/depth of the Spurs. Jeez.)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins): 37.8
- Los Angeles Clippers (Chris Paul, Jamal Crawford, Matt Barnes, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan): 44.3
- Houston Rockets (Jeremy Lin, James Harden, Chandler Parsons, Terrence Jones, Dwight Howard): 40.1
- Portland Trailblazers (Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldrige, Robin Lopez): 42.7
(Note: Win Shares based on the 2013-14 season. Win Shares might seem “low” but we’re only taking into consideration said stat for the players mentioned in any of the previous scenarios, not the ones provided by the bench.)
3. Houston Rockets Depth Chart: 2013-14 vs. 2014-15
2013-14:
- C: Dwight Howard – Omer Asik – Greg Smith
- PF: Terrence Jones – Omri Casspi – Donatas Motiejunas
- SF: Chandler Parsons – Francisco Garcia – Jordan Hamilton – Ronnie Brewer – Robert Covington
- SG: James Harden – Patrick Beverley – Troy Daniels
- PG: Jeremy Lin – Aaron Brooks – Isaiah Canaan
- Total Win Shares: 54.9
2014-15:
- C: Dwight Howard – Donatas Montiejunas
- PF: Terrence Jones – Jeff Adrien – Joey Dorsey – Josh Powell
- SF: Trevor Ariza – Francisco Garcia – Alonso Gee – Robert Covington – Scotty Hopson
- SG: James Harden – Troy Daniels – Nick Johnson
- PG: Patrick Beverly – Isaiah Canaan – Ish Smith
- Total Win Shares: 49.4
Skeptical on Win Shares? Sure, Win Shares are far from an exact science, but in teams whose starting lineup is far better than their bench (most teams in the league, including the Rockets), it tends to work pretty well.
However, skepticism aside, in a Western Conference where a six-game swing is enough to be left out of contention and the playoffs as a whole (Houston Rockets 54-28, Phoenix Suns 48-34) the Houston Rockets (16/1 to win the NBA championship according to Bovada.com) are clearly at loss.
Texas-sized offseason indeed.
Anyway, as badly as the Rockets might’ve wet the bed with their offseason by eventually ending up with a worse lineup than the one from the 2013-14 season, they’re still able to pursue point guard extraordinaire Eric Bledsoe at $48 million over four years.
Just kidding.