San Antonio Spurs: Can The Spurs Rebound From Game 6?

As Miami Heat fans began to exit American Airlines Arena, they announced that they were disappointed their team had lost, but that they were still proud.

Forty-five seconds– and one Ray Allen 3–later those same fans were ready to get back to supporting the Heat, but to no avail.

After a devastating loss in Game 2 of the 2011 NBA Finals, where the Heat players began celebrating before the game had ended, it appears that they learned something the fans have not: It ain’t over ’til it’s over.

In one of the best fourth-quarter performances of these playoffs, LeBron James, whose disguise (headband) was stripped by Danny Green, decided to put on his cape and force a Game 7 against the San Antonio Spurs.

The outcome of Game 6 was not determined by Heat fans bustling out of the arena, nor by the yellow tape being prepared for the trophy presentation, but by the buzzer sounding with the final score of 103-100. How novel.

The same will be true of the outcome for Game 7, but after giving everything they had in Game 6, do the Spurs have anything left for the final game of their season? And if they are to rebound from Game 6, what will it take?

Let’s break it down.

Coach Popovich

Through the 84 playoff games that have been played, nearly every coach has been subject to criticism about their clutch-time decision-making. Up until Game 6 of the NBA Finals, Gregg Popovich had managed to avoid criticism like this and when his name has come up, it’s been to regale him as one of the best coaches of all time.

However, a few decisions Pop made in the waning minutes of Game 6 left many scratching their heads.  With the Spurs up by three, Pop elected not to foul Chris Bosh once he grabbed the offensive rebound. When asked about this decision, Popovich’s reply was essentially, that might be how it’s done in Europe, but the Spurs don’t do that.

In Pop’s defense, according to John Ezekowitz, the statistical analysis done on this strategy does not yield the conclusion that fouling would clearly increase the likelihood of winning. Nonetheless, in the postgame press conference, several people questioned Popovich’s decision.

Another questionable coaching decision was Pop’s choice to bench Duncan late in the fourth.

With Duncan on the bench, Bosh got the offensive board on LeBron’s missed shot, which he immediately kicked out to Ray Allen, who hit his 3-pointer to tie the game with five seconds remaining.. Regardless of how Game 7 plays out, Popovich should expect to receive a very expensive gift from Chris Bosh in the near future because after the first half of Game 6, the Heat fan base was ready to run Bosh out of town.

In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Frank Vogel of the Pacers was subject to similar scrutiny when he benched Roy Hibbert for the final play of the game where LeBron beat the Pacers on a layup at the buzzer. Of course we can’t say that Duncan would have definitely snagged the rebound, so pinning the loss on that coaching decision by Pop doesn’t seem right, but if a similar situation presents itself in Game 7 (and fans can only hope that it does), don’t be shocked if you see Duncan fighting for his life to get, potentially, the last rebound of his career to seal the deal on his fifth ring.

Manu Ginobili

In Game 5, Manu Ginobili was inserted into the starting lineup for the first time all season and had one of the best games of his career in one of the most important games of the season. For Game 6, Ginobili was back in the starting lineup, but this time he was responsible for eight of the Spurs’ 13 turnovers. One of his eight turnovers came with 55 seconds remaining in OT and another with 3.5 seconds remaining–both while the Spurs were down 101-100.

You can argue all you want about how a foul should’ve been called, but it wasn’t and there was no way the refs were going to let the NBA Finals potentially be decided at the free-throw line (cue conspiracy comments).

There is no excuse for a player of Manu’s caliber to be turning the ball over eight times.

The Spurs don’t need Manu to replicate his Game 5 performance to close out this series, but if, in Game 7, Ginobili has more than twice as many turnovers as he does assists, he might as well give the Larry O’Brien Trophy to LeBron, too.

Spurs Defense

Prior to Game 7, the Spurs need to ask themselves this question: Do we need to figure out how to defend the Heat when Dwyane Wade is on the floor, or should we rely on Erik Spoelstra to “ride or die” with Flash?

According to Zach Lowe, in this series, Miami has scored 131.7 points per 100 possessions when LeBron is on the floor without Wade, and 100.8 when they are both on the floor.

For a majority of that breathtaking fourth-quarter performance LeBron put on Tuesday night, Wade was on the bench and finally re-entered the game with about four minutes left, which very well may be a good indication that if Spoelstra is going down, he’s not about to do it with Wade sitting next to Juwan Howard.

This, however, highlights a bigger issue with San Antonio’s defense thus far and something they are must address.

When Wade isn’t on the court, LeBron has much more space to operate and he does so with a vengeance. Look at how much room he has to drive to the rim when Wade isn’t on the court.

When James, Mike Miller and Ray Allen are on the floor together, which they have been for 68 minutes of this series, Miami is plus-50, an absolutely absurd differential.

Maybe this number looks radically different in a larger sample size, but 68 minutes is 23 percent of the minutes played in these Finals, so even if Spoelstra decides he’s living or dying with Wade, in a close game that lineup’s production could make all the difference in who walks away champions.

Kawhi Leonard 

In his first NBA Finals, at the age of 21, Kawhi Leonard was tasked with the responsibility of guarding four-time MVP LeBron James and, boy, has he embraced that role.

Fast forward to Game 6, 19.4 seconds left in the game and Leonard steps to free-throw line with a chance to put the Spurs up 96-92. One can only imagine what was going through his mind knowing that if he hits these, the Spurs could ice the game, but if he felt any pressure his singular facial expression would have never given it away.

Whether or not it was because he felt the pressure, Leonard missed his first free throw, which cracked open the door that Ray Allen eventually kicked wide open.

Before you rush to put the loss on Leonard’s shoulders, think about what you were doing as a 21-year-old during the summer. Considering it probably involved gallons (kegs) of liquid that wasn’t Gatorade and you almost certainly weren’t playing in the NBA Finals, you should first take a look at the bigger picture with Kawhi before condemning him.

In Game 6, Leonard had 22 points, 11 rebounds and three steals and to cap it off, he completely eviscerated whatever pride Mike Miller had regained.

In the Finals, Leonard is averaging 13.8 points, 10.3 total rebounds, 2.8 offensive rebounds and 2.2 steals. These rebounding numbers are phenomenal, but should come as no surprise to anyone who has seen Leonard’s athleticism and the size of his hands.

But really, the dude’s knuckles have knuckles.

Beyond the simple stats, the Spurs are plus-21 when Leonard is on the court, which seems to indicate that not only has he accepted the responsibility of guarding LeBron, he’s done so about as well as anyone has ever before.

According to Tom Haberstroh of ESPN, in the regular season, LeBron’s player efficiency rating was 31.6, but through five Finals games, that number was down, quite significantly, to 22.1. After his Game 6 performance, that number jumped to 28.8 per NBA.com, but to be fair to Kawhi, only God himself could have stopped LeBron in the fourth quarter of Game 6.

Danny Green 

Prior to Game 6, Chris Bosh definitively stated that Danny Green “won’t be open tonight.”

Ignoring that maybe that should have been the mindset before Green torched the Heat by hitting an NBA Finals record 25 3-pointers, Miami’s defense delivered on Bosh’s promise. Green went 1-for-5 from behind the arc Tuesday night, lowering his 3-point percentage in the Finals to a piddly 60.5 percent, and when Green had one last chance to finish the Heat, Bosh put his money where his mouth was and blocked the shot to end the game.

For the Spurs to rebound from Game 6 and win Game 7, it’s going to require that Danny Green hit shots. The Spurs can win even if Green doesn’t light the arena on fire en route to another 7-for-9 3-point shooting performance. That being said, given that Ginobili could easily have another sub-10-point performance, the Spurs desperately need more than a total of three points from Green.

Green can’t do much to create his own shot, but he’s put on a clinic this series when it comes to moving off the ball.

In Game 6, the Heat picked up the defensive intensity when defending Green, but he still got some relatively good looks. The difference in Game 7 could come down to whether or not Danny Green capitalizes on those kind of shots.

Although Game 6 was a heartbreaking loss for the Spurs, they have to find a way to bounce back. As Ginobili explained aptly in his post-game interview, “There’s no Game 8.”

Indeed, Manu.

So, how do the Spurs get themselves into Game 7? According to Coach Pop, the answer is as simple as getting on the bus, arriving at the ramp in the stadium, getting off the bus and getting ready.

In a series that’s gone back and forth between two great teams, the only two things you can rest assured of are that the Miami Heat fans have no shame in embracing their bandwagon status and that, come game time, the Spurs will be off the bus, in uniform and ready to fight one last game.