NBA: 10 candidates for breakout seasons in 2017-18

Gerald Bourguet

Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

NBA — Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

These 10 notable NBA youngsters could be heading for breakout seasons in 2017-18 as they prepare to blossom into butterflies from their cocoons.

The NBA is one of the few leagues that’s interesting for fans from top to bottom thanks to its current draft lottery process, which rewards terrible teams with the highest odds at bringing in future elite talent.

In other words, even if your favorite NBA team is nowhere near being a contender in the present, keeping an eye on the league’s crop of youngsters and dreaming about the future is always entertaining.

Everyone knows LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James and Stephen Curry run the league now, and most people already know Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo are up next, but part of the fun for non-competitive teams is speculating who else could be on the rise.

In that frame of mind, it’s worth examining which 10 NBA players are approaching potential breakout seasons in 2017-18.

For our purposes, we’re not counting KAT, Kristaps Porzingis, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert or Bradley Beal, because even though they have zero combined All-Star appearances at this point in their careers, most people already acknowledge them as stars or players who will to get there next season.

10. Aaron Gordon

Up to this point in his career, Aaron Gordon hasn’t shown much, partially because he’s been played out of position as a small forward for so long, and partially because his rise to NBA stardom has followed the same path as most Orlando Magic draft selections over the last half-decade: brimming with potential, but ultimately falling short of reaching it.

Unlike some of those other picks, however, Gordon has a chance to amend the record entering his fourth season. He averaged a career-best 12.7 points and 5.1 rebounds per game on 45.4 percent shooting last year, and though he still isn’t a stretch-4, he bumped his numbers up to 16.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game on 50.3 percent shooting after the All-Star break.

Aside from it being encouraging Gordon was able to overcome injuries and finish the season on a strong note, it was good to see him produce while playing at his true position of power forward. If he can carry that momentum forward into 2017-18, his two-way skill-set could make him a breakout star for a Magic team devoid of a franchise face.

9. Clint Capela

Clint Capela would be higher on this list if not for the Houston Rockets‘ 3-point onslaught, but even with James Harden, Chris Paul, Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson set to take the majority of the shots, there’s no question this fourth-year center is something special.

Last year, Capela put up career-bests across the board with 12.6 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game on 64.3 percent shooting. He also served as the defensive anchor for a Rockets team that would’ve been league-average if it had been stingier by 0.1 points per 100 possessions.

He was mostly a rim-runner and put-back guy on the offensive end, but he’s shown flashes of being an adept passer on the roll, and running screens with both CP3 and the Beard will open him up for more easy looks at the basket than ever before.

He’ll never be the focus of this high-powered offense, but if he can ground a top-10 defense and bump up his numbers a bit, we might be talking about this 23-year-old as the third member of a Rockets Big Three around this time next year.

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8. Gary Harris

Like Capela, Gary Harris‘ spot on this list is limited more so by his team’s offense than by his actual skill-set. For those who have been paying attention, Gary Harris is already one of the best two-way guards in the NBA thanks to his stout wing defense and burgeoning 3-point touch.

7. Myles Turner

With Paul George gone, the Myles Turner era has officially begun. At only 21 years old, that’s a heavy burden to place on the new face of the Indiana Pacers, and most signs indicate Turner might not be ready for such a drastic shift in responsibility — even with Victor Oladipo and Bojan Bogdanovic there to alleviate some of the pressure of carrying a lackluster team by himself.

However, Turner is just on the outside of that “sure thing” category alongside fellow unicorns Town, Jokic and Porzingis, which is why he’s deserving of a spot on this list. While it’s uncertain he’s prepared for this much responsibility, there’s no question he’ll deliver on that two-way, stretch-5 potential at some point.

The uncertainty regarding when he’ll make the leap is what restricts him to No. 7 on this list, but after averaging 14.5 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game on .511/.348/.809 last year with George still around, 2017-18 could mark the season Turner is thrust into the spotlight and never looks back.

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6. Marcus Smart

Marcus Smart is never going to be a team’s go-to option on offense, and that’s especially true for a Boston Celtics team that just added Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward over the summer. However, heading into a contract year, Smart seems as ready as ever to capitalize on Avery Bradley‘s departure.

Smart has already been pegged as the team’s most bullish defender, and his positional versatility is only going to expand as he gets more comfortable in the NBA. With Bradley gone, the Celtics have a glaring need for perimeter defense, especially since Kyrie isn’t much more effective on that end than Isaiah Thomas was.

Smart’s impact extends far beyond the stat sheet, and that’s impressive for someone who boasted a well-rounded stat line of 10.6 points, 4.6 assists, 3.9 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game last year. The question will be whether Smart can spread the floor like Bradley did, since that’s what’s holding him back from joining the upper echelon of two-way players in this league.

Last season, Smart shot a bone-dry 35.9 percent from the field, 28.3 percent from 3-point range and 81.2 percent from the foul line. He’s a gamer who shows up in the playoffs, but he’s never shot above 40 percent from the field or 34 percent from 3-point range in his three-year career. Hopefully year four will be different, because in 2017-18, you can count on Smart playing the most prominent role of his career thus far.

Brooklyn Nets — Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

5. D’Angelo Russell

Not much has changed for D’Angelo Russell strictly from a basketball sense — he’s still one of a few young talents on a roster otherwise devoid of them. However, with an abrupt trade from Los Angeles to the Brooklyn Nets serving as the chip on his shoulder, DAR’s third season could be the breakout year Lakers fans were waiting for (and are now afraid of).

Last season, Russell averaged 15.6 points, 4.8 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game. For all the chagrin about what he wasn’t and his mediocre .405/.352/.782 shooting splits, people overlooked that he’s still only 21 years old and has only played two NBA seasons.

Now, Kenny Atkinson will get the opportunity to figure out whether Russell’s best position is the 1 or 2, and he’ll be able to tinker around with him and Jeremy Lin in the same backcourt. Russell already had ice flowing through his veins, but a cold-blooded trade by the Lakers could be what bumps him over the top and into a breakout year.

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4. Rodney Hood

With Gordon Hayward gone, the Utah Jazz have a 22-point void to fill on a nightly basis. Their best player, Rudy Gobert, will never be the focus of the offense, which means Rodney Hood is due for a simultaneously resurgent and breakout season in 2017-18.

With Hayward’s scoring and playmaking out, Hood will not only get opportunities to let shots fly, but also to operate out of the pick-and-roll when Ricky Rubio isn’t serving his teammates up on a silver platter.

Last year, Hood saw his role waver due to inconsistent play, injury and Joe Johnson stepping up down the stretch. This year, the 24-year-old wing has the chance to step up as a go-to option on offense, spread the floor and re-establish himself as one of the league’s up-and-coming two-way shooting guards.

If he can improve his 12.7 points per game on .408/.371/.783 shooting splits he posted last year, this season could represent more than a bounce-back season for Rodney Hood. No one player is going to fill the void left by Hayward, but on the offensive end, no one stands to gain more.

NBA — Photo by Victor Decolongon/Getty Images

3. Devin Booker

It sounds silly to say this about a player who averaged 22.1 points per game last year, but because of his defense, poor team record and underwhelming shooting percentages, right now, Devin Booker is still seen as a player putting up good numbers on a bad team — even though he’s only been in the league for two years. In any case, a true breakout season could be coming.

Similar to Myles Turner, Devin Booker is just on the outside of the “sure thing” category among young players drafted over the last few years. Unlike Turner, however, Booker appears closer to putting it all together with a breakout season, even if his two-way ceiling might not be as high.

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Even better, the Phoenix Suns have the pieces in place to make Booker successful. He has talent around him to avoid putting too much pressure on an adolescent, but the offense will still be tailored around getting him shots. He’s the face of the franchise, and if he can be more efficient in year three, he could conceivably put up 25-26 points per game.

Though Book won’t turn 21 years old until a few games into the season, he just averaged 22.1 points per game — putting him alongside Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Shaquille O’Neal as the only players in NBA history to average at least 22 points per game in a season before turning 21 years old.

The defensive end is where Booker needs to improve, and eventually, he’ll need to prove he can lead/carry the Suns to wins as this young core matures together. For the time being, however, that 70-point game serves as a pretty clear indicator he can get buckets, and you can expect that developing skill to put him in the national spotlight this season.

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2. Dennis Schroder

Technically speaking, Dennis Schroder already had something of a breakout season in 2016-17, averaging 17.9 points and 6.3 assists per game as the starting point guard for an Atlanta Hawks team that earned the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference.

However, with Paul Millsap, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Thabo Sefolosha gone, what Schroder does in 2017-18 will probably make last season look like child’s play. The team success certainly won’t be there this time around, but as the only player on the roster who’s ever averaged at least 15 points per game for a season, Schroder is the default face of the franchise.

With only Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince and rookie John Collins to offer support on the offensive end, Schroder is going to put up big numbers. They might not be as efficient with defenses keying in on him, but you can be guaranteed he’s going to get more opportunity than ever before.

Entering his fifth NBA season at age 24, the sizable jump in Schroder’s numbers is going to be one of the few silver linings in a rough 2017-18 campaign for Hawks fans.

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1. Jusuf Nurkic

Because Jusuf Nurkic‘s transformative time with the Portland Trail Blazers only lasted 20 regular season games and one playoff game, we can’t really call what we saw in 2016-17 a breakout year. We also have to take it with a grain of salt, since it was such a small sample size.

But boy, that grain of salt certainly isn’t going to ruin the flavor packed in that smaller sample! In his 20 games in Rip City, Nurkic was the galvanizing force in getting the Blazers to the playoffs, averaging 15.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.9 blocks and 1.3 steals per game for a team that went 14-6 with him on the floor.

Just take a look at how Portland’s offensive, defensive and net ratings all drastically improved from pre-Nurkic to post-Nurkic, especially when Nurkic was actually healthy:

Before Nurkic: 55 games, 106.8 O-rating (13th), 108.9 D-rating (26th), -2.1 Net rating (22nd), 23-32 record
After Nurkic: 27 games, 110.0 O-rating (6th), 105.7 D-rating (12th), +4.3 Net rating (5th), 18-9 record
Nurkic on the floor: 20 games 110.6 O-rating (6th), 105.4 D-rating (12th), +5.2 Net rating (5th), 14-6 record

Again, it’s impossible to say for certain that will happen again in 2017-18, but for all the concerns about his conditioning and how he’d fare in a larger role, the Bosnian Beast rose to the occasion. If not for his injury concerns, the Blazers would be seen as a sure bet to make the playoffs this year.

However, we can’t gloss over Nurkic missing 20 games, 60 games and then another 17 games through the first three years of his career.

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Nurk is only 23 years old, he doesn’t have a ton of miles on his NBA odometer and he was an idyllic fit in Terry Stotts’ offense who also made the Blazers a drastically improved team on the other end. With his starting job secure, the only thing preventing Nurkic from a breakout year is his own health.

Gerald Bourguet