Heading into the 2017-18 NBA season, here’s a look at 10 notable players who will likely see some regression in their numbers and role from last year.
One thing that makes the NBA such a fascinating sports league is how noticeable the rising and falling of certain players can be from season to season.
Whether it’s due to competition for playing time in a crowded rotation, how much a player is getting paid, just an off year, poor team fit, injuries or even something as simple as getting another year older, there are a number of factors that go into determining a player’s worth, especially as it pertains to whether their stock is rising or falling.
Heading into the 2017-18 NBA season, there are young players in need of breakout seasons, players trying to shed the injury-prone label, established superstars, rookies hoping to make an impact and everything in between. However, there are also the unfortunate cases where certain players are due for regression.
From falling short of unsustainable success to playing in a more crowded rotation to injury woes, here’s a look at 10 players whose numbers and/or role won’t be quite the same in 2017-18.
10. Al Horford
In his first season with the Boston Celtics, Al Horford already saw his numbers drop to 14.0 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game, compared to 15.2 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game the year before. With Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving joining the party, there will be even fewer touches for the big man.
Last year’s 11.8 field goal attempts per game was Horford’s lowest mark since 2011-12, so even if Kyrie immediately buys into Brad Stevens’ offense, Hayward is going to need more looks on the wing than Jae Crowder or Avery Bradley did.
Heading into his age-31 season, Horford is mostly needed for his passing, positionally versatile defense and floor-spacing. His impact has always been underrated because of what shows up on the stat sheet, but as he continues to age and the focus of this young offense shifts elsewhere, his numbers will probably take another minor hit in 2017-18.
9. Seth Curry
Unless you were paying close attention to the Dallas Mavericks, you’d probably be surprised by the quietly excellent numbers Seth Curry put up last year: 12.8 points per game on 48.1 percent shooting from the field and 42.5 percent shooting from 3-point range.
Most of the focus went to the underdog success story of Yogi Ferrell, and now Dennis Smith Jr. and his immense potential have understandably stolen the spotlight. With Curry only starting in 42 of his 70 appearances last season, and a potential franchise pillar joining the party as a rookie, it stands to reason Curry might not be able to duplicate his career year.
Rick Carlisle trotted out a few small-ball lineups with Wesley Matthews at the 3 and Harrison Barnes at the 4 down the stretch, so perhaps Curry can retain the starting job as a 2. But even if the Mavs opt for more conventional lineups, the arrival of Smith figures to cut down on some of his touches and add more talent to a backcourt that grew to rely upon Ferrell and Curry last year.
8. Zach Randolph
Zach Randolph‘s production has been on the decline for the last three seasons, so this isn’t exactly a controversial pick. It’s also worth noting that he turned 36 years old in July, and that the drop-off in his numbers over the two seasons also has to do with his new role of sixth man.
However, given his age and the direction of the young team he’s joining, it’s entirely possible Z-Bo’s stat line slips even further from the 14.1 points and 8.2 points in 24.5 minutes per game he posted in his final season with the Memphis Grizzlies.
To be clear, that’d be perfectly fine for the Sacramento Kings. They’re not necessarily counting on a return to the playoffs in 2017-18, and Randolph’s true value will be mentoring the frontcourt of Skal Labissiere, Harry Giles and Willie Cauley-Stein — young players who need minutes for their development and will spare a 36-year-old Z-Bo from logging heavy minutes.
7. Marcin Gortat
This isn’t a knock on Marcin Gortat; he’s been extremely consistent for the Washington Wizards over the last few seasons, even as he turned 33 in February. For the 2016-17 season, the Polish Hammer averaged a double-double with a career-high 10.4 rebounds per game, all while shooting 57.9 percent from the field.
However, the Wizards played around with quite a few small-ball lineups late in the year for defensive purposes, and even for an efficient player who relies on John Wall for most of his easy looks around the rim, you have to wonder at what point the decline will really start to show.
Gortat’s 10.8 points per game were a fairly significant drop-off from the 13.5 per game he averaged the year before, and if Ian Mahinmi is finally healthy, his defense skill-set might suit Washington’s needs more.
6. DeAndre Jordan
Milos Teodosic is one of the best passers in the world, but there aren’t many floor generals in NBA history who control the game as well as Chris Paul. With CP3 on his way to Clutch City, there’s a decent chance Lob City will need a new moniker.
Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are still around, but even with Griffin’s passing ability in the frontcourt and Patrick Beverley capable of serving as a secondary playmaker, the Los Angeles Clippers might not enjoy as many easy alley-oops in 2017-18.
Last year, Jordan averaged 12.7 points and 13.8 rebounds exactly for the second season in a row. He shot a league-leading 71.4 percent from the field, but his blocks also decreased from 2.3 per game to 1.7. Having just turned 29 years old in July, it will be telling how Jordan responds in his first year without Paul.
5. George Hill
Like Z-Bo at No. 7, George Hill warrants a spot on this list for two reasons: 1) He’s joining a Sacramento Kings team that has depth at his particular position and 2) He’s on the wrong side of 30, despite what his sizable offseason contract might say.
Unlike Randolph, Hill just posted a career-high 16.9 points per game on efficient .477/.403/.801 shooting splits, and there’s a chance Dave Joerger rides his veterans a bit harder than you’d expect for a rebuild, especially with ex-Grizzlies Z-Bo and Vince Carter on his roster.
However, Hill also missed 33 games last year due to various injury problems. With rookie De’Aaron Fox (and even Frank Mason III) needing minutes, this nine-year veteran probably won’t see the same type of role as he did in Utah, especially once the playoffs start to slip out of reach.
4. Danilo Gallinari
Suffice it to say that on a team with Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, not to mention Milos Teodosic, Patrick Beverley and Griffin all serving as playmakers with the ball in their hands, Danilo Gallinari probably won’t lead his team in scoring like he did last year with the Denver Nuggets.
Gallo is a great fit for the Los Angeles Clippers thanks to his 3-point stroke and ability to play the 4 in small-ball lineups, but expecting him to put up 18.2 points and 5.2 rebounds per game on .447/.389/.902 shooting splits like he did last year might not be realistic.
Even if he does emerge as a spot-up 3-point weapon and go-to scorer, Gallinari’s inability to stay healthy also looms as a potential problem. After missing the entire 2013-14 NBA season recovering from an ACL tear, he’s missed 23, 29 and 19 games over the next three years as well.
3. Andre Iguodala
This is as much a product of Andre Iguodala‘s age and steady statistical decline as it is a luxury for the Golden State Warriors. The truth is, they don’t need to ride him very hard in the regular season. Having Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green in your starting five obviously helps, but the fledgling talent of Patrick McCaw is perhaps just as important here.
Though he was a deserving Sixth Man of the Year finalist last year, Iggy’s numbers dropped to 7.6 points, 4.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists in a career-low 26.3 minutes per game. He posted more than respectable shooting splits of .528/.362/.706, but the Dubs really just need to keep their super-sub fresh for the playoffs.
More than likely, LeBron James will be waiting in the Finals, and when that happens again, the Warriors will count on Iggy to try to contain the best player in the world — like last year, when his playing time increased to 28.2 minutes per game. But with Iguodala now 33 years old and McCaw’s well-rounded game starting to blossom, we could see some regression here in 2017-18.
2. James Harden
On a team level, James Harden may be as dangerous as he’s ever been in 2017-18. With the arrival of Chris Paul to make life easier and perhaps conserve some of his energy for the defensive end, the Beard could lead the Houston Rockets back to the conference finals and perhaps even challenge the Warriors’ reign in the West.
However, from an individual perspective, there’s no question the addition of another ball-dominant point guard will take away from Harden’s numbers, even with Mike D’Antoni planning on staggering their minutes so one is always on the floor to spearhead the offense.
Last year, Harden submitted one of the finest non-MVP seasons in NBA history, averaging 29.1 points, a league-leading 11.2 assists and 8.1 rebounds per game. His defense and shooting might be more efficient thanks to Paul’s impact, but it’s fairly predictable Harden’s numbers will take a bit of a hit.
1. Isaiah Thomas
Isaiah Thomas would’ve made this list even if he were 100 percent healthy following his trade to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Though he’ll fill a similar role of instant, isolation-heavy offense that Kyrie Irving so effectively played, expecting him to match his career-high 28.9 points per game on .463/.379/.909 shooting splits alongside LeBron James is unrealistic.
However, with IT’s return date from his hip injury being uncertain and so much of his game being dependent on burst with the ball in his hands, seeing him at the No. 1 spot on this list shouldn’t be a surprise.
Not only does LeBron function as the Cavs’ primary caretaker of the rock, but at 5’9″, Thomas won’t be the same if he’s a step slow — and that’s assuming he doesn’t somehow miss half the season recovering.
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The phrase “Doubting Thomas” is negative in every context and we’ve seen IT prove his skeptics wrong before. Hopefully he can get healthy and do it again in 2017-18. More than likely though, his numbers are due for a steep drop next season.