Heading into the 2017-18 NBA season, here’s a look at 10 players under the age of 25 who could really do with a breakout year.
The NBA is a league dominated by its superstars, but for the fanbases whose teams don’t have any realistic hope competing for a championship, looking for the next great thing is a big part of the appeal.
Sure, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Stephen Curry run the league now, but who has next? Which young players or teams will dominate the association five years from now? It’s such a fun thought exercise, we recently ran through 10 young cores that could be the next great NBA dynasty after the Golden State Warriors are finally mortal again.
However, lost in all the potential of these young players is the more depressing scenario where they never pan out. It’s easy to buy into the future and hope each new draft pick flourishes into the perfect role within a team, but the sad truth is, it doesn’t always work out that way.
The jump from promising young player to superstar — or even useful NBA role player — doesn’t happen overnight. Oftentimes, youngsters put up disappointing numbers as they struggle to adjust to the pros, leaving public perception in limbo from season to season.
Will Player X improve their 3-point shooting to become a legitimate 3-and-D player? Will Player Y become a more efficient shooter and better defender to reach his ceiling as the next big thing? Does Player Z have any hope of carving out a role for himself in a crowded rotation?
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These are the questions we ask about certain players every year, and entering the 2017-18 season, several players under the age of 25 stand out in that same category. Once touted as future franchise pillars, a few prominent young players in this league suddenly find themselves in need of a long-awaited breakout campaign.
These are the players we still believe could carve out a productive NBA career, but still have major work ahead of them. These are the players we haven’t quite given up on yet, but might feel more inclined to do so if they disappoint again in 2017-18 since the trajectory of their careers could be riding on it.
Whether it’s because of their upcoming contract situation, losing minutes in a crowded rotation, pre-draft expectations or failing to live up to their potential, it’s time to take a look at 10 players who could really use a breakout year in 2017-18.
Honorable Mentions
Victor Oladipo — That 18-4-4 stat line in his second season seems like eons ago, but at age 25, maybe Dipo is what he is: A good but not great two-way player who will do a little of everything for the Indiana Pacers without the star potential he was once pegged for. His sizable contract also keeps him off the list.
D’Angelo Russell — Russell would like to have a breakout year after being spurned by the Los Angeles Lakers, but a talent-starved team like the Brooklyn Nets isn’t going to suddenly give up on him if he doesn’t.
Cody Zeller — Reminder: The Charlotte Hornets went 33-29 with Zeller on the floor last year…compared to 3-17 without him. That, plus Zeller’s steady albeit slow improvement year over year prevents him from making the list as he enters his fifth season.
Jordan Clarkson/Julius Randle — It seems silly to include these youngsters considering one put up 14.7 points per game and the other averaged 13.2 points and 8.6 rebounds per game last year, but the Los Angeles Lakers could quickly plop them on the trade block to free up space for free agency.
Pelican Debrief
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist — The elite defense continues to be overshadowed by his lack of a jumper, but entering his sixth season, can MKG raise his ceiling from lengthier version of Tony Allen to something truly befitting of a former No. 2 overall pick? Or is it already too late?
Steven Adams — 2016-17 wasn’t the breakout year most were expecting for the Oklahoma City Thunder‘s defensive anchor, even if he did average a career-high 11.1 points and 7.7 rebounds per game last year.
Marcus Smart — With Avery Bradley and Isaiah Thomas gone, plus a woeful defender like Kyrie Irving entering the fold, the Boston Celtics are not only going to need Smart’s defensive prowess, but they’re also going to need him to figure that jump shot out sooner rather than later.
Trey Lyles — We tried to avoid as many second-year players as possible, but after the Utah Jazz gave up on Lyles, now he has to join a Denver Nuggets team with like 17 power forwards. The time to start carving out his NBA niche is now.
Stanley Johnson — Marcus Morris‘ departure frees up minutes for Johnson on the wing, but he completely fell out of the Detroit Pistons‘ rotation last year. He’s still only 21 entering his third year, but 2017-18 is the first crucial step in proving he’s a legitimate NBA player.
Noah Vonleh — Vonleh is still only 22, but at some point all that raw potential has to materialize into something at a position of need for the Portland Trail Blazers. It didn’t happen in his third season, with 4.4 points and 5.2 rebounds per game representing his career-highs to this point.
Tim Hardaway Jr. — Hardaway already had something of a breakout year last season, averaging 14.5 points per game on .455/.357/.766 shooting splits. But with that $71 million price tag attached to his name by the New York Knicks, the pressure is back on.
10. T.J. Warren
Entering the 2016-17 season, T.J. Warren felt like a Most Improved Player of the Year dark horse. When he started off his third year averaging 20 points and five rebounds through the first 11 games of the season, it felt like it was all coming together for Tony Buckets.
Unfortunately, a mysterious head injury completely derailed his potential breakout campaign, and he wasn’t the same after he returned 13 games later. Luckily, he found his groove again to close the season, averaging 17.6 points and 7.7 rebounds per game on 56 percent shooting after the All-Star break.
However, the writing is on the wall for a player who had an inconsistent season, still can’t shoot from 3-point range and already has his replacement waiting in the wings with rookie Josh Jackson. If Warren is unable to reach a contract extension with the Phoenix Suns before the upcoming season, 2017-18 will be spent proving his value before restricted free agency next summer.
9. Aaron Gordon
Like pretty much every other player the Orlando Magic have drafted over the last half-decade, Aaron Gordon hasn’t quite lived up to his billing as the franchise’s next young star on the rise. Entering year four, it’s time to start showing more progress.
To be fair, Gordon will only turn 22 before the start of the season, and just averaged a career-high 12.7 points and 5.1 rebounds per game last year. There’s no telling how much playing out of position as a 3 stunted his growth, but now that he’s back at the 4, perhaps the game will start to click a little more.
However, Gordon is not yet the defensive mainstay he was pegged to be, nor is he a stretch-4 after shooting 28.8 percent from 3-point range last year. The Magic could really use someone stepping up as a legitimate franchise pillar, and Gordon failing to do so would perhaps be even more devastating than the day Orlando realized Victor Oladipo would never reach that point.
8. Kyle Anderson
The San Antonio Spurs are a little short on young cornerstones outside of Kawhi Leonard and maybe Dejounte Murray, but they also don’t hang onto lackluster players just for the sake of having youth. Bearing that in mind, it feels like Kyle Anderson is getting dangerously close to the chopping block.
Despite his NBA Summer League exploits, that “Slo Mo” nickname turns from endearing to disheartening every time the real season starts. In his third NBA season last year, Anderson saw his numbers drop to a meager 3.4 points and 2.9 rebounds in 14.2 minutes per game.
With Jonathon Simmons gone, there are minutes available at the 2-guard spot. Entering his fourth season at 23 years old, it’s time for Anderson to live up to his billing as a human Swiss army knife and the late-first round steal of the 2014 NBA Draft.
7. Meyers Leonard
After getting that four-year, $41 million extension that kicks in this season, Meyers Leonard is perfectly set contract-wise. However, after such a disappointing 2016-17 campaign, his place with the Portland Trail Blazers is anything but secure.
After posting career highs in scoring (8.4 points per game), rebounding (5.1 per game) and minutes (21.9 per game) in 2015-16, Leonard’s production completely fell off a cliff last year, resulting in 5.4 points and 3.2 rebounds in just 16.5 minutes per game. The supposed seven-foot shooter also saw his efficiency nosedive from .448/.377/.761 shooting splits to a dismal .386/.347/.875 line.
Between Leonard, Noah Vonleh, Al-Farouq Aminu and rookie Caleb Swanigan, Rip City doesn’t really have a sure thing at power forward. If Leonard can fashion himself into a productive stretch-4 or stretch-5, perhaps he won’t be bait every time the Blazers pop up in trade rumors.
6. Alex Len
As of right now, restricted free agent Alex Len has yet to agree to re-sign with the Phoenix Suns. With the market completely dried up, he’ll more than likely be back with the Suns — either on a multi-year deal worth less than he’s been holding out for, or on his one-year, $4.2 million qualifying offer that would make him an unrestricted free agent next summer.
But even if Len somehow secures multi-year security from the Suns, there’s no question his place within #TheTimeline has come into question. It’s been four years and Len has failed to look anything like a franchise center, to the point that rookies Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender look like more viable options at the 5 for the long-term.
Injuries and the arrival of Tyson Chandler held Len back early in his career, but last year was supposed to be his breakout season. Instead, he averaged a ho-hum 8.0 points, 6.6 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game in yet another failed opportunity to establish himself. Len is not a bad player, but he’s not a good one either, which means the 2017-18 campaign could be his last chance to stick with the Suns…or even earn a decent payday in general.
5. Emmanuel Mudiay
Avoiding players with only two years of experience was an important goal for this list, but we can’t ignore that Emmanuel Mudiay‘s time in the Mile High City is already nearing its end based on what we’ve seen so far.
As a rookie, Mudiay averaged an atrocious 3.2 turnovers per game, posted ugly .364/.319/.670 shooting splits and struggled in his 66 starts, but there was enough athleticism, flashes of potential and a complete lack of competition at the 1-spot to make sure his job was secure.
That didn’t hold true last season, when Mudiay averaged 2.2 turnovers in only five fewer minutes per game, barely improved his ugly shooting splits to .377/.315/.784 and eventually lost his starting job to a 35-year-old Jameer Nelson and rookie Jamal Murray.
The Denver Nuggets eventually pushed him to the edge of the rotation, and now his place with this young core is in question. A change of scenery might be needed if this 21-year-old is unable to reassert himself in Michael Malone’s lineups, take care of the ball and at least shoot 40 percent from the field for the first time in his career.
4. Dante Exum
Technically speaking, Dante Exum has only played two seasons in the NBA. But since he missed the entire 2015-16 campaign with an ACL tear that’s hindered his progress with the Utah Jazz to this point, the overwhelming takeaway from his career thus far is how much further along he should be.
In Exum’s defense (pun intended), he’s a quality defender who’s still 22 years old. His long arms and good defensive instincts will help him stick in Quin Snyder’s backcourt rotation, even if he never evolves into the franchise point guard the Jazz thought they were drafting back in 2014.
But that’s kind of the point: Utah was expecting so much more with that fifth overall pick, and whether it’s because of injury, a crowded backcourt or his supremely underwhelming career .385/.308/.743 shooting splits, the offensive end hasn’t even come close to clicking yet.
With Ricky Rubio, Rodney Hood, Raul Neto, Alec Burks and rookie Donovan Mitchell on the roster, Exum has no clear path to a breakout season. But after being drafted more than three years ago, it’d be great to see him stay healthy and prove himself worthy of that top-five selection.
3. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
For starters, there’s the blatantly obvious “prove it” deal that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is playing on for the 2017-18 campaign. Rather than tie up cap space beyond this season, the Los Angeles Lakers gave KCP a one-year, $18 million contract to help make the team look better right before an expected free agency bonanza.
If the Lakers have a legitimate shot at signing LeBron James, Paul George or Russell Westbrook, they’ll drop KCP like a sack of potatoes regardless of how his season goes. If they strike out on all those high profile #FutureLakers, then Caldwell-Pope could become a fallback option.
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However, in either scenario, KCP only has one year of contract security. That means he needs to improve on his 13.8 points per game that included underwhelming .399/350/.832 shooting splits last year. Everyone knows he’s already a premier perimeter defender, but can he actually shoot after failing to surpass 42 percent shooting from the field once so far in his career?
KCP’s one-year deal necessitates a breakout season, but so does the fact that through his first four years in the league, he’s only brought the “D” to his supposed 3-and-D skill-set.
2. Elfrid Payton
Hey look, another player recently drafted by the Orlando Magic! Unlike Aaron Gordon, the slow-going progress of fellow 2014 draft pick Elfrid Payton is more of an issue because the team has been actively searching for an upgrade at his position.
After years of bouncing back and forth between the starting lineup and the second unit, Payton finally strung together some momentum near the end of last season, averaging 13.5 points, 8.4 assists and 7.0 rebounds per game after the All-Star break. He also tallied five triple-doubles in that span, making him the franchise’s all-time leader.
The Magic are hoping that momentum carries over into next season, but they haven’t committed to him as their long-term starting point guard either. Entering his fourth season, Payton needs to fine-tune that ugly stroke of his and definitively prove he’s the man for the job…or prepare for another year of constant trade speculation.
1. Nerlens Noel
From injuries to a center logjam, Nerlens Noel never got his chance to prove himself with the Philadelphia 76ers. He has legitimate Defensive Player of the Year potential down the road, but the closest he ever got to inspiring belief in his fledgling career was in 2015-16, when he averaged a well-rounded 11.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 1.5 blocks per game.
Since then, he’s dealt with more injury problems and was shipped off to the Dallas Mavericks, where he didn’t exactly blow anyone away with his 8.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.1 blocks and 1.0 steals per game in 22 appearances.
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After turning down a four-year, $70 million offer from Dallas (for God only knows what reason), Noel is betting on himself in 2017-18, signing the one-year qualifying offer worth $4.2 million that will allow him to test the waters of unrestricted free agency next summer.
It’s a ballsy call, not only because of Noel’s extensive injury history, but also because of how quickly the free agency spending spree of 2016 dried up and how loaded the 2018 free agency class will be. Noel may not be able to do much better than the offer he reportedly rejected from the Mavs.
Even without the contract situation though, there’s a lot riding on this upcoming season for Noel. He missed his entire rookie season in 2013-14 recovering from an ACL tear he sustained in college, and despite playing 75 games in 2014-15, he’s missed 15 and 31 games in the two seasons since.
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Noel was pegged as one of the league’s up-and-coming two-way players. Now we’re not even sure he can be the anchor of a competent NBA defense. Not only does he need to stay on the floor in 2017-18, but as he enters his fourth season, he also needs to prove himself worthy of being a franchise center and a former top-10 selection.