Indiana Pacers: What Manner Of Team Do They Want To Be?

The Indiana Pacers pushed Toronto to the limit, but fell in Game 7. Now they look to change the tenor of their team to avoid the same fate next year.

Taking the measure of a team is a difficult proposition. If a team is successful during the regular season but flames out early in the playoffs, how good were they? If a team backs into the playoffs but then goes on a run, do we evaluate them on the season or the end?

Do we look at a team that met preseason expectations as successful, or simply mediocre because they didn’t improve on them? Do you look to win totals, seed, or postseason success to say how good a team really was?

These are the sort of questions that swirl around the Indiana Pacers after their first round loss to the Toronto Raptors. Coming into the season, prognosticators were unsure how their new offensive mindset would pan out. Moving Paul George to the 4 and spacing the court around Ian Mahinmi was an uncertain prospect at best.

Some picked the Pacers to sneak into the playoffs, while others picked them to finish just outside. Anywhere from 32-42 wins was a common pick. They exceeded that total, winning 45 games, but only reached the seventh seed in the playoffs. At one point the 5-seed was in reach, but then Indiana lost winnable games down the stretch to fall outside the playoff picture. Winning six of seven against the dregs of the league pushed them back in as their competitors stumbled.

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Along the way they abandoned their small-ball system for a more traditional two-big lineup, buckled down on defense, and put forth modest offensive numbers for the year. Was their season successful because they exceeded their expected win totals? Or unsuccessful because they lost in the opening round?

They almost didn’t lose in the first round, winning their first game against the Raptors en route to pushing the series to seven. The Pacers were on the cusp of becoming only the second 7-seed since 1999 to upset a 2-seed, but fell short in a tight Game 7. Are they applauded for going the distance against a superior team, or degraded for letting a 15-point fourth quarter lead fall away in Game 5?

Team president Larry Bird has to answer these questions to prepare for the offseason. And that offseason begins immediately, as Bird needs to decide who he wants steering the ship next year. To do that, he’ll have to see what philosophy is truly important for the Pacers to have.

Next: Team Identity?

What Will Their Team Identity Be?

Frank Vogel is a top-notch defensive coach. His teams in Indiana have always finished above league average in defensive rating, finishing no worse than 10th and twice topping the league. The last two years have shown it isn’t merely the personnel, as the loss of Paul George last year and Roy Hibbert and David West this year didn’t kill their defense. Last season the Pacers only dipped to eighth in defensive efficiency, and this year they were third despite giving key minutes to Monta Ellis, Rodney Stuckey and rookie big Myles Turner.

The problems for Indiana have not been on defense, but on offense. Over the last four years, the Pacers have finished no better than 19th in offensive efficiency, including back-to-back finishes at 23rd. Only three players this season finished above average in offensive plus/minus: Paul George, George Hill and C.J. Miles.

8 Points, 9 Seconds

Coming into the year, Larry Bird communicated a new mantra to the media. The Indiana Pacers weren’t going to replace departing free agent David West, but instead were going to fill the team with wing players and slide Paul George to the power forward position. They acquired Chase Budinger, signed Monta Ellis and Glenn Robinson, and drafted potential stretch-big Myles Turner.

The Pacers began the season starting Paul George at the 4, but the results were less than stellar. They dropped three straight games to open the season, losing by an average of 13 points. Paul George struggled to score, shooting 15-for-43 and going a combined -33 in those games. By their fifth game Vogel reinstalled two bigs in the starting lineup and George began producing at All-NBA levels.

For the season, George managed to come out positive in 1,067 total minutes played at PF, with a net rating of +0.8. However, when George played at his natural small forward position — 1,700 minutes for the season — he had a +4.5 net rating, over five times as positive. His true shooting percentage was six percent higher at the 3. In short, the Indiana Pacers were a much better team with two big men on the court and Paul George playing small forward.

The problem here is that the Pacers were still a below-average offense, something Bird has been very vocal about wanting to change. It is possible Vogel’s ceiling as an offensive coach is average, and that is why management is moving on from him? Is a top-five annual defense something Bird is willing to risk in order to gain more spacing on offense? Because if that’s what he truly wants, he may have to sacrifice to see the improvement he is seeking.

Next: Head Coach?

Who Else Could Be The Head Coach?

The tension with the head coaching position was not resolved with a firing. Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical reported Sunday that Frank Vogel’s contract was up, and he was without an extension:

Larry Bird turned the uncertainty into actuality Thursday morning, announcing at a press conference that Frank Vogel would no longer be the coach of the Indiana Pacers. A number of teams currently looking for head coaches were waiting for the resolution of the situation, as Vogel will vault towards the top of their lists. The Houston Rockets, in particular, interviewed Vogel in 2011 before the Pacers formally lifted the interim label on Kevin McHale and installing him as their full-time head coach.

Who should Bird tab as a replacement for Vogel? There are two types of coaches he may go after. One is the small step, looking for a strong defensive coach who has had more success offensively. If Bird wants a coach along these lines with more pedigree, hiring Jeff Van Gundy and pairing him with a top offensive assistant holds some appeal. Van Gundy has demonstrated through the media he understands the modern NBA and the importance of offensive spacing. But Van Gundy’s Houston teams were slower than this Indiana team has been recently, and they were only once above average on offense.

Another coach along these lines is David Blatt, whose teams overseas were strong on both sides of the ball. He has solid credentials and genuinely succeeded in Cleveland given the situation he was placed in; his firing from the Cavaliers shouldn’t scare teams off to any real extent. Other coaches in this mold include Jeff Hornacek (an early name to emerge in connection with Bird) and current Pacers assistant Nate McMillan.

The other, more radical option is to trust the defensive ability of the current personnel and hire a coach who can specifically spark the offense. The most obvious name here is Mike D’Antoni, who saw great success in Phoenix on offense and whose principles have changed the entire approach of the league. Turner would seem to be a perfect fit for a D’Antoni offense, and the Pacers would certainly solve their pace issues overnight.

Another option that would be a dramatic offensive change is Ettore Messina, an assistant with San Antonio with experience coaching overseas. The egalitarian, free-flowing offense San Antonio used the last few years would seem to fit the personnel in Indiana well, and Larry Bird has spoken about his admiration for the Spurs organization.

One option that comes about from “reading the tea leaves” is Kevin McHale. The former Boston teammates could look for a reunion in Indiana. McHale recently removed his name from consideration in Sacramento, an act that preceded Bird’s announcement about Vogel by hours. Is this reading too much into the situation? When asked about hiring McHale, Bird said, “I wouldn’t do that to him. I wouldn’t make him work for me.” Was that a smokescreen? The next few days will tell.

Frank Vogel is a really good coach, and teams generally shouldn’t let really good coaches walk. But Bird has decided to go in another direction, and that will open wide the possibilities for the Pacers in the draft and free agency.

Next: The Draft?

Who Should The Pacers Draft?

While Indiana has peddled a few draft picks over the Larry Bird era, for the most part they have stuck with their own picks. Currently they are one of only three teams not to owe any draft picks, and the only one not to have any picks incoming or outgoing. The Pacers will pick where they land in the standings.

This season that gives them picks No. 20 and 50, both picks that keep them outside of the concentrations of talent. In the first round there are 10-12 top prospects, plus another handful of high-upside targets. It is unlikely those will be around by pick 20. In the second round, a group of productive upper-classmen and international prospects may be the pool to choose from, as another drop-off occurs around 40.

That isn’t to say there won’t be options for the Pacers, and Indiana has done well drafting players over the years. Paul George, Kawhi Leonard (traded to San Antonio for George Hill) and Myles Turner have all been picked 10 or later. Lance Stephenson, Miles Plumlee and Solomon Hill were other players taken after 20 that have proven to be at least rotation pieces in the league.

Wiz of Awes

If Larry Bird wants to go small — and everything points to that being the case — then Indiana needs more wings. With Hill, Stuckey, Ellis, and George all able to handle the ball, and Joseph Young gaining experience as a swing guard in the D-League, the Pacers need catch-and-shoot wings who can hit from outside and play hard on defense.

With that sort of a shopping list, what players could be available in the draft? Top prospects such as Brandon Ingram and Furkan Korkmaz will be gone before 20. But the lottery will be filled with big men, from Ben Simmons and Dragan Bender to Jakob Poetl and Domantas Sabonis. This helps the Pacers, as they should have plenty of options on the wing.

Taurean Prince seems to be the perfect fit; he was excellent on defense at Baylor, has the makings of a strong shot, and brings athleticism and experience with him. DeAndre Bembry also has strong defensive talents, although his shot needs work.

On the other side of the spectrum are more offensively-minded wings. Denzel Valentine is an intriguing option, but will probably go before the Pacers pick in the first round. Caris LeVert has the size (6’7”) to play on the wing, and is dynamic as a scorer all around the court. Timothe Luwawu could go anywhere from 10 to 40. Michael Gbinije has the option to return to school, but showed in the NCAA Tournament the sort of upside he has.

Going back to Taurean Prince, he would be the kind of player to slot alongside Paul George to guard opposing power forwards, in a similar role to Shane Battier for the Miami Heat title teams. If the Pacers take Prince it would provide the potential to unlock these small-ball lineups Bird is after. Pairing Prince with a more offense-oriented player such as Dorian Finney-Smith could immediately give Indiana options on the wing.

Next: Who To Re-Sign?

Who ShouldTthe Pacers Re-Sign?

In contrast to teams such as Miami or Charlotte, the Pacers have left themselves with relatively few decisions to make regarding their current players. Their collection of wings is mostly locked in, as is George Hill, Rodney Stuckey and rising sophomores Turner and Joseph Young.

Forward Solomon Hill is an unrestricted free agent because Indiana turned down his option. While Bird attempted to leave open the possibility of his return, the CBA prevents Indiana from paying S. Hill more than $2.3 million the first year because they turned down his option. The versatility and shooting of Hill could net him close to eight figures on the open market, pricing him out of Indiana.

That leaves two main decisions left. The first is which big to keep between Ian Mahinmi and Jordan Hill. Each make an identical $4 million this year, but keeping both would be redundant with the direction Bird wants to go. Playing one big at a time means 48 total minutes for Myles Turner, Lavoy Allen, and whichever of J. Hill and Mahinmi they re-sign.

If Bird and whoever he hires as head coach are ready for Myles Turner to start, then Jordan Hill could make sense as a backup. He will likely be cheaper than Mahinmi, is a solid rebounder and hits his free throws at a decent clip. But his defense is suspect and he was unable to crack the rotation in the playoffs.

FanSided

Mahinmi makes more sense on a number of levels. For one, he had a breakout year this season for the Pacers, adding offensive versatility and playmaking to his usual rebounding and rim protection. He could start for at least another year as Turner grows into his role.

The other reason Mahinmi makes sense is because Indiana owns his Bird Rights; that means they can wait to sign other free agents and then re-sign Mahinmi to go over the cap. His cap hold will be $7.6 million, while he would be worth something north of $10 million. This would afford them greater flexibility with signing other free agents.

The other decision is at backup point guard. Rodney Stuckey proved this year to be an abject failure at the point, and Monta Ellis was often tasked with that role. He can do it decently well, but it also limits the rotation as Ellis or George Hill have to be on the court at all times. Joseph Young, last season’s second-round pick out of Oregon, is probably not ready yet.

The Pacers brought in Ty Lawson after his contract was bought out by the Rockets. He was not a major contributor, but did show flashes of the borderline All Star that he was in Denver. Is it worth rolling the dice on Lawson and risking that he will make another off-court error and be unavailable? Can he become once more the playmaker he was in Denver?

If not, he should be sent packing. But if the Pacers can get him on a value deal and minimize the risk, there is potential for a decent reward at a position of need.

Next: Free Agency Plan

What Free Agents Should They Pursue?

Let’s assume that the Pacers re-sign Ian Mahinmi after they sign other free agents, and use both of their draft picks on players that will be on the 2016-17 roster. They also renounce all other free agents and cut the non-guaranteed salaries of Shayne Whittington and Glenn Robinson III. This would leave them with $67 million in salaries and holds, and around $23-27 million in cap space.

This is not quite enough to clear the highest of salary thresholds, but the majority of free agents would be available as potential options for them. It is unlikely Indiana goes after another big man; they like Mahinmi, and devoting resources to a better player than Mahinmi would involve ignoring Turner, something they will want to avoid.

Just as in the draft, the Pacers will address their lack of quality wings, as well as going after a backup point guard. They might request a sit-down with Kevin Durant or LeBron James, should the latter entertain the market, but more likely won’t be serious options for either.

Bird may consider a large offer for DeMar DeRozan, who would provide shot-making at an elite level, but that would cause a lot of redundancy with Monta Ellis, whom the organization signed last offseason. In addition, being in a locker room with Paul George may trigger too many flashbacks of being enveloped by that wingspan in this year’s playoffs.

Chandler Parsons and Marvin Williams are both players in the mold of what the Pacers are looking for. Either can slide to the power forward position — Williams played that almost exclusively this season for Charlotte — and space the floor. Parsons will be more expensive than Williams, but provides more playmaking and driving ability.

Harrison Barnes is another name that could play small-ball 4 for Indiana. He has grown into a great corner three-point shooter, and can hit shots from anywhere around the arc with some regularity. He has a good post-up game to attack mismatches, and on defense can hold up against the largest of power forwards.

If Bird and the new coach can get Paul George to fully buy into being a small-ball 4, then they can go for a combo wing in the vein of Kent Bazemore or Evan Fournier. Each has 2/3 versatility, can shoot from outside, and drive when the defense closes out. Bazemore provides more defense on the wing, while Fournier is a better marksmen from deep.

Finally, the Pacers will look to fill their hole at backup point guard. Jeremy Lin is an intriguing option if Indiana goes for a lower-priced wing such as Allen Crabbe or Mirza Teletovic. Lin has shown to be one of the better backups in the league this season on Charlotte, and would keep Indiana from completely folding when George Hill sits.

Less expensive alternatives include Greivis Vasquez and Jerryd Bayless, both unrestricted free agents coming out of Milwaukee. Vasquez is a great ball-handler with some range, while Bayless showed an improved jumper this season catching passes from Giannis Antetokounmpo. Mario Chalmers is recovering from an injury but should be ready to go by next season.

Next: Smoothest Course

Smoothest Course

In this version of a best-case scenario, the Indiana Pacers hire a coach who radically shifts their team philosophy. That appears to be what Larry Bird is after, and it makes sense for him to take a large step away from the steady Frank Vogel.

Mike D’Antoni is about as large of a step away as one can find. He will instill an offensive system that focuses on pacing and shooting on offense. The defense will most likely take a small step back with the increase in pace, but defensive assistant coach Dan Burke will be relied upon to keep the same system and level of excellence.

The Pacers draft Taurean Prince with their first round pick, finding a tough wing to provide defense alongside C.J. Miles for the bench unit. The second round pick is used on Timothe Luwawu, a sharpshooter out of France.

In free agency, they allow Jordan Hill, Solomon Hill and Ty Lawson to walk. They sign Marvin Williams for $12 million a year to play alongside Paul George and Ian Mahinmi in the frontcourt, providing shooters at both forward positions.

D’Antoni determines that Monta Ellis is better coming off of the bench in a sixth man role, and signs Jordan Clarkson to the maximum $11 annual salary. The Lakers, having signed DeMar DeRozan, Hassan Whiteside and Dion Waiters to large contracts, do not match.

Having used their cap space, the Pacers re-sign Ian Mahinmi to a three-year, $34 million contract to start at center until Myles Turner is ready to step into a full-time role.

Finally, Ty Lawson tests the market and teams are scared off by his off-court issues, driving him to sign with Indiana for the minimum to rebuild his value. He joins Monta Ellis, C.J. Miles, Taurean Prince and Myles Turner on the bench.

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The starting lineup — George Hill, Jordan Clarkson, Paul George, Marvin Williams, and Ian Mahinmi — is well set up for Mike D’Antoni’s system, as well as keeping a strong defense. They would have as good of a chance as any team outside of Cleveland of entering the postseason with home court advantage.