For many, it’s a foregone conclusion that San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama will win Rookie of the Year for the 2023-24 season. The Frenchman is the most hyped prospect to enter the NBA in years, after all.
Imagine a world where Wembanyama doesn’t take the top prize for basketball newbies, though.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility. Anyone who watch Wembanyama’s first Summer League game saw that there could be a potential adjustment period to the NBA for the big man. Then again, his second Summer League game suggested the opposite.
The new Collective Bargaining Agreement also pushes the threshold for minimum games played to be award-eligible to 65. Wembanyama was shut down after two Summer League games, though he isn’t hurt and showed everything he needed to in Las Vegas. Nobody wishes ill health upon Wembanyama, but he’ll be playing more and more frequently than he was abroad, which could raise those concerns.
If not Wemby, however, then who can claim Rookie of the Year?
Who are the top five candidates to challenge San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama for Rookie of the Year in 2023-24?
The obvious candidates are the ones who directly followed Wembanyama on draft night. Charlotte Hornets forward Brandon Miller and Portland Trail Blazers guard Scoot Henderson will definitely make a run at the award.
Contenders run deep, though. Some are hidden gems that were drafted later in the night, or not at all. Others are showing their ability to ball out with big performances in the Summer League.
In no particular order, here are five players who could give Wembanyama a run for his money in the Rookie of the Year race.
Rookie of the Year: F Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets forward Brandon Miller had a chance to go head-to-head with Wembanyama in each of their Las Vegas Summer League debuts. Miller played better, though he already had two games in hand from the California Classic.
Against the Spurs, he recorded a double-double of 16 points and 11 rebounds, stealing the ball three times and otherwise playing solid defense. The most glaring flaw was his three-point shooting, where Miller missed 7 of his 10 attempts.
Still, Miller won’t be under as much pressure to perform as Wembanyama, which could give the versatile wing the opportunity to develop under a less glaring spotlight. He can operate as a catch-and-shoot player, deferring to LaMelo Ball on offense and simply filling out his role in an efficient manner, which could reflect well if Wembanyama struggles to do it all.
A big factor in the voting could be the success of the Hornets on the court. They still don’t feel close to a playoff team, but they’re probably closer to that point than the Spurs (unless San Antonio somehow acquires Damian Lillard). Sneaking into the playoffs could lead to voters sneaking Miller on to the top of their ballots.
But Miller can pass, he can shoot (generally), he can play off the dribble, and he can operate in the pick-and-roll. He should be enough of a threat to contend for Rookie of the Year honors.
Rookie of the Year: G Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers
The big debate entering the draft was who was going to go to Charlotte at No. 2 – Miller or Scoot Henderson? The G League guard fell into the lap of the Portland Trail Blazers, where he could take on an immediate role.
If the Blazers grant the wishes if Lillard and trade him off to Miami or somewhere else, they’ll likely be seeking a boatload of draft picks or young players in return. That could clear the decks for Henderson to take on a primary role on both sides of the court.
Henderson was able to score in bunches in the G League and should be able to do so again with Lillard out of the way, even if Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons stick around. His height is a concern, but his speed and midrange game are not and should enable the rookie to score plenty of buckets in his first season.
Henderson did suffer a shoulder injury in the Summer League, which forced him to miss a contest during the event. It doesn’t seem like a concern that should linger into the season, though.
In the lead-up to the draft, Henderson was insistent that he deserved to be the top pick of the draft. Since being selected, he has expressed his desire to win Rookie of the Year. Clearly, the flame burns bright for the individual’s competitiveness, which should give him a shot at the award.
Rookie of the Year: F/C Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
Remember Chet Holmgren? He was a serious contender for Rookie of the Year last season before an injury sidelined him before a minute had been played. That means the Oklahoma City Thunder big man remains eligible for the award.
In some ways, Holmgren feels like the player who could be the most direct competition to Wembanyama. Many of the skills Wembanyama has are shared by Holmgren, with one of the primary differences being the Thunder big man’s comparatively diminutive 7-foot-1 stature.
Health comes up as a concern for obvious reasons with Holmgren, who has always sparked worries with his lanky frame. If he can stay healthy for at least 65 games, his game should be good enough to keep him in the rookie race.
Holmgren has looked very good in the Summer League, averaging 13.7 points and 10.0 rebounds per game in the first three contests, while swatting away nine shots. He should make an immediate impact as a rim protector, even if he struggles against stronger big men. He should also function well in a complimentary role, able to pop threes or move inside with his mobility while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Josh Giddey run the offensive show.
Oklahoma City was knocking on the postseason door a year ago. If Holmgren pushes them over the precipice, he’ll garner serious Rookie of the Year consideration.
Rookie of the Year: F Jarace Walker, Indiana Pacers
Wembanyama and the three players mentioned above can be considered the top tier (or two) of Rookie of the Year candidates. Let’s dive into a couple of sleepers, starting with the shallow sleeper lottery pick of Jarace Walker, taken by the Indiana Pacers.
The forward should make an immediate impact with a young Pacers squad. He profiles as a prototypical 3-and-D type, averaging 11.2 points per game during his lone collegiate season at Houston. He hit 47 percent of his shots as a freshman, including 35 percent of his threes.
His three contributions should be dwarfed by his defensive contributions. There’s a chance he proves to be one of the best defensive players in the 2023 draft class, owing to his size, instincts, and quickness. Some of that will be harder for voters to measure, but the increased reliance on analytics could give his defensive presence some much-deserved credit when voting takes place.
Walker struggled shooting during his first two Summer League games, but it hardly affected him. He averaged 12 points, 8.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks in those two contests.
Walker has demonstrated his versatility on both ends of the court during his Summer League stint. Carrying that momentum into the regular season could lead to a Rookie of the Year push for the Pacer.
Rookie of the Year: F Emoni Bates, Cleveland Cavaliers
Let’s stretch into the deep sleeper pool for the last competitor to Wembanyama’s pre-ordained crown. Then again, it’s not so far-fetched to think that one of the former top prospects in the country could vie for Rookie of the Year.
The Emoni Bates story is well-documented. He emerged as a top recruit in the country and committed to Michigan State, only to end up at Memphis for a season. That year went disastrously, leading Bates to transfer to Eastern Michigan, though he faced gun charges (ultimately dropped) before he even played a game for the Eagles.
The Cleveland Cavaliers drafted Bates in the middle of the second round and have since signed him to a two-way deal. It’s going to be difficult for him to hit the games threshold unless he gets his contract converted early in the year.
That’s not out of the realm of possibility for the 19-year-old wing, who has been showing flashes of what he can do during the Summer League.
The sample size is small, but Bates averaged 16.3 points per game in the first three Summer League contests he played in. He had little issue creating his own shot, shooting 41 percent from the field, including 38 percent from three.
He’s also been a revelation on the defensive end, pacing his teammates in steals and coming in the runner-up position of blocks. It’s the kind of two-way play the Cavs can only dream of for a player on a two-way deal.
It would take somewhat of a miracle for Emoni Bates to contend for Rookie of the Year. But don’t say you weren’t warned if the Cleveland Cavaliers rookie comes up aces in the race against Victor Wembanyama.