The Denver Nuggets only won their first NBA title a month ago, but most fans have already moved on to the 2023-24 season. The Nuggets may not have been the favorite to win it all last season, but they’ve been building towards top contender status in the association for several years and had the reigning two-time MVP in Nikola Jokic – their title wasn’t a major surprise.
That being said, there are some teams that have endured big struggles in recent years but are ready to shock the world this upcoming season. These rising teams are ready to crash the playoff picture, perhaps even make a run in the postseason.
Which up-and-coming NBA teams are ready to take a leap in 2023-24 and surprise the rest of the association?
Some of the teams listed below have been bubbling under the surface for some time, quietly building to a crescendo set to be played this season. Others made a big move or had a massive offseason, allowing them to push to the next tier of the league.
Of course, when teams emerge, other teams have to fall back. That’s the nature of the NBA: it’s a zero-sum game. The success of one franchise is directly linked to the failure of another. Figuring out which teams will take drastic steps back is more challenging (and more depressing to think about), but they’re out there.
Think your team deserves to be considered one that will surprise this season? Feel free to sound off in the comments and make your case persuasive!
Without further ado, here are the five teams that will surprise next season.
5. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder rank fifth on this list because they would be the least surprising team to take a leap in the upcoming season. Most NBA prognosticators think the time is nigh for OKC to get back into the thick of the Western Conference.
The Thunder nearly broke through a year ago. Despite finishing with a losing record, Oklahoma City slid into the play-in tournament and actually beat the New Orleans Pelicans to set up a do-or-die game against the Minnesota Timberwolves. There, the Thunder fell short.
The rebuild has been painful at times, dating back only a few years, but conceivably having its roots in the dismantling of the team after the departures of James Harden, Kevin Durant, and eventually, Russell Westbrook. The next core is in place, though.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a superstar, earning his first All-Star nod and First Team All-NBA a year ago. He is the player the Thunder can build around for years to come and he seemingly has no desire to leave the franchise anytime soon.
The team around him is solid, too. The first people that come to mind are Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams. The former can do it all on the court, finishing a rebound shy of a triple-double in the play-in victory over New Orleans. The latter made the All-Rookie First Team and led the Thunder with a 52.1 percent field goal percentage.
Chet Holmgren would’ve been a Rookie of the Year contender last year, but a Lisfranc injury caused him to miss the entire 2022-23 season. While Victor Wembanyama is getting all the press, Holmgren was one of the more intriguing prospects in recent years and should add another element to Oklahoma City.
Something all of those players share in common? They’re all 25 or younger. This team could be a serious threat in the NBA for years to come.
4. Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz started off last season surprisingly well before fading back as the year went on. That hot start set the blueprint of what could be an emergent year for the Jazz, which are still only one year removed from sending away Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert.
Several key additions paced last year’s gains. The first was the head coach. Will Hardy is young, but he quickly proved adept at shaping a rotation to the ability of his players. He’s one of the game’s brightest young minds and should be a Coach of the Year contender down the line.
From a player perspective, it felt as if Collin Sexton would be the major get in the deal that sent Mitchell to Cleveland. Instead, it was former lottery pick Lauri Markkanen, who finally broke out in a big way. He was named Most Improved Player in the league, averaging 25.6 points per game.
Utah also hit on a gem in Walker Kessler, selected 22nd overall in the 2022 NBA Draft. The big man only started for about half the season but averaged 9.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks en route to finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting.
The Jazz also have a hive of young players who could turn out to be major contributors down the road. Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, and Brice Sensabaugh were all selected in the first round this year and have boom potential.
After last year’s successful flyer on Markkanen, Utah doubled down on its desire to take chances on power forwards who haven’t hit their peak, acquiring John Collins from the Atlanta Hawks for pennies on the dollar. If he starts to live up to the hype, the Jazz are primed to surprise in 2023-24.
3. Indiana Pacers
When the Indiana Pacers traded away Domantas Sabonis, it felt like the end of one avenue back toward contention. The return, however, was just the next chapter in the lineage of Pacer greats.
The Pacers revolve around guard Tyrese Haliburton. He was an All-Star for the first time last season, averaging 20.7 points and 10.4 assists per game while shooting 40 percent from three-point range. There was no question about Indiana giving him a max contract extension at the start of free agency.
Even though he’s a frequent fodder of trade rumors, Myles Turner is still in Indiana and performing at arguably the highest level of his career. While his blocks were down to a paltry 2.3 per game last season, he set personal benchmarks for points (18 per game), rebounds (7.5 per game), and field goal percentage (54.8 percent).
Benedict Mathurin came off the bench for a majority of his games but still managed to finish fourth in Rookie of the Year voting. He averaged 16.7 points per game and set the Pacers rookie record for three-pointers made, though his 32.3 percentage from deep could use improvement.
There are some under-intriguing young players, like draftee Jarace Walker, Andrew Nembhard, and Jalen Smith. The franchise also made a splash in free agency by poaching Bruce Brown away from the defending champions. Brown may not move the needle in terms of title contention, but he’s the type of player that can help Indiana get over the playoff hump and surprise in 2023-24.
2. Orlando Magic
Is this finally the year the Orlando Magic turn the corner on their rebuild? With Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and a plethora of young guards, the Magic may no longer need to wish upon a star for a playoff trip.
Orlando has been in the postseason wilderness for a few years and in the title contention thorns for much longer, really ever since Dwight Howard left. The team is finally starting to recognize the core it can build around.
That starts with last year’s first overall pick, Banchero. After much subterfuge about who Orlando would take, it seems like Banchero was the right move. He won Rookie of the Year after averaging 20 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. The sky’s the limit for the Duke product, who won’t even be old enough for his first legal drink when the 2023-24 season starts.
Franz Wagner doesn’t get as many accolades, but the tall small forward was an All-Rookie First Team player a year earlier. He averaged 18.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game for the season. He’s a good-to-great three-point shooter and should be a great second option for Orlando for years to come.
Then, there’s the guard pipeline. This year, they drafted Anthony Black in the lottery (as well as forward Jett Howard, viewed by many as a reach). The other guards on the roster include Cole Anthony, Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, and Jalen Suggs. That’s a crowded backcourt to contend with.
At some point, it will be time for Orlando’s students to graduate into a full-blown team of solid rotation pieces that can compete for the postseason. Don’t be surprised if this is the year.
1. Houston Rockets
Entering the offseason, the Houston Rockets still felt a few years away from crashing the playoff picture. Then, the team made a series of win-now moves that could propel them to blast into the postseason this year.
Here’s a quick run through what Houston did this summer: hired Ime Udoka as head coach, signed Dillon Brooks from Memphis, signed Fred VanVleet from Toronto, and drafted both Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore. Not bad, right?
VanVleet and Brooks weren’t the only veterans added to the team. The timeless Jeff Green signed in Houston as well, as did Jock Landale and Aaron Holiday.
Udoka was the person who helped guide young stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to the NBA Finals 13 months ago. The way his tenure ended in disgrace can’t be forgotten, but from a coaching standpoint, the former Boston Celtics coach seems like the perfect choice to lead the Rockets.
VanVleet automatically becomes the best player on the Rockets – and is getting paid like it – but Houston’s breakthrough will be dependent on the younger players rising to meet the moment. Jalen Green hasn’t quite lived up to the hype, but he’s only two years in. The same could be said after Jabari Smith Jr.’s rookie season. Both will likely start and be relied on heavily, with Kevin Porter Jr. and Jae’Sean Tate creating a monster bench unit.
The sheer depth of the Houston Rockets alone could lead the up-and-coming team to surprise many in the 2023-24 season.