NBA Trades: 5 under-the-radar trade targets

December 15th marked the unofficial beginning of NBA trade season with a majority of the players signed to contracts in the offseason officially becoming trade-eligible. However, still, a month away from the February 9th trade deadline, teams can take their time in evaluating the market and their respective targets.

While everyone in the league will undoubtedly have their eyes on the likes of DeMar DeRozan, Buddy Hield, Jae Crowder, and Eric Gordon, the market is also rich with players who many casual fans may not know are available and ready to make a big impact come playoff time. Here are five under-the-radar players who both 1) are most likely on the table in trade talks and 2) can help a competitive team this season.

Honorable Mentions: Malik Beasley (Utah Jazz), Kelly Oubre Jr. (Charlotte Hornets), Kenyon Martin Jr. (Houston Rockets), Dillon Brooks (Memphis Grizzlies), O.G. Anunoby (Toronto Raptors), Gary Trent Jr. (Toronto Raptors)

NBA: F Harrison Barnes, Sacramento Kings

On its face, the idea of the Sacramento Kings shaking up their roster in the middle of their best season since the Bush administration feels ill-advised. Looking past the team’s initial success, there are several reasons why the Kings may consider moving Harrison Barnes.

While the season is still young, the veteran forward has opened the year shooting a career-low 30.8% from beyond the arc, resulting in his lowest scoring numbers since his last year in Golden State. In each of the last two seasons, Barnes ranked in at least the top 29th percentile in eFG%. This year, Barnes has dropped to only the top 43rd percentile at 54.5%.

According to Basketball Index’s Overall Shot Making metric, which analyzes a player’s ability to make shots in a variety of different situations and levels of difficulty, Barnes sits in the bottom 18th percentile of all players, down from the top 19th percentile in each of the previous two years. At the end of the day, slumps happen, and Barnes will have plenty of time to right the ship before the February trade deadline. Nonetheless, Barnes’ shaky start makes trading the former 7th overall pick an increasingly likely possibility.

Barnes turns 31 years old this May. It’s not unreasonable to think that the once-explosive player may have already begun the inevitable decline in production and, therefore, value. The former Tar Heel, who’s earning approximately $18.4 million this season, is currently eligible for a four-year, $98.7 million contract extension until June 30th.

Taking into consideration Barnes’ age, slow start to the season, and general replaceability with rookie Keegan Murray now on the team, the $24.7 million average annual value (AAV) of a max extension is obviously steep. While Barnes and the Kings can ultimately agree to a new deal below the maximum, the fact that an agreement has not been reached shows a difference of opinion still exists between the two sides.

As the oldest player in the rotation and the second oldest on the team, Barnes brings a veteran presence that young teams unquestionably need. No member of the Kings’ core of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and Keegan Murray is currently older than 26. While the team is off to a promising start, largely credited to the roster’s youth and hunger for success, inexperience is fatal in the playoffs.

Having an NBA champion and 10-year, role-playing veteran in the locker room and on the court may be the critical piece that propels the Kings past a play-in or first-round exit. However, as contenders begin to look for expiring deals to boost their bench, Barnes’ name is sure to be in the conversation.

NBA: C Jakob Poeltl, San Antonio Spurs

Okay, this one may not be so under the radar anymore. However, with the San Antonio Spurs headed for their fourth straight season below .500, the team’s national exposure is certainly not what it once was. Because of that, the casual fan may not be aware of the continuing evolution of young Spurs center Jakob Poeltl. Initially, Poeltl was largely viewed as a mere throw-in to the Kawhi Leonard/DeMar DeRozan trade in 2018. However, now in his fifth season in the Alamo City, Poeltl has developed into one of the premier centers in the NBA.

Where Poeltl really stands out is defense. While he only averages around a block per game, so far this season, Poeltl has ranked in the top 10th percentile among all players in rim contests per 75 possessions. Poeltl places in the top 2nd percentile in Basketball Index’s Post Defense metric, third among centers, behind only Onyeka Okongwu and Clint Capela. Poeltl also ranks in the top 13th percentile in several other of Basketball Index’s interior defense metrics including Screener Mobile Defense, Screener Rim Defense, and Help Defensive Activity.

Like Barnes, Poeltl is in the last year of his contract which, in Poeltl’s case, banks him just under $9.4 million this season. The Austrian is eligible for a new, four-year, $58 million extension until the end of the NBA calendar year, after which he will become an unrestricted free agent. With Poeltl ranking as one of the best centers in the league and salaries gradually increasing due to the upcoming media rights deal in 2025, it’s no secret that Poeltl far outplays his current contract.

Therefore, it’s probably safe to assume that the Spurs offered him a max extension, even if they have plans to move him later on. No team wants to lose a major asset, let alone a top-of-the-league center, for nothing in free agency.

Adjusting their deals to Poeltl’s extension timeline, other defensive-minded big men Clint Capela, Jarrett Allen, Mitchell Robinson, and Robert Williams III make an average AAV of $19.5 million. With Poeltl’s max extension coming in at $14.5 million AAV, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that he hasn’t agreed to the new deal. Over half the league can create cap space this summer, and Poeltl is positioned perfectly to take advantage.

It should be noted that, in the end, the Spurs could pay Poeltl practically whatever he wants this summer, should a trade not happen. According to Spotrac, the Spurs could free up over $73 million in cap space this summer. So, if Poeltl is so good, and the Spurs have so much room, why wouldn’t they just bring him back? At age 27, Poeltl is one of the oldest players on a Spurs team in the midst of a hard rebuild following the trade of All-Star PG Dejounte Murray last offseason.

Murray, one year younger than Poeltl, even said at a press conference with the Atlanta Hawks that San Antonio traded him because “[t]hey didn’t want to see [him] waste years rebuilding…” While the Spurs can ultimately afford to bring Poeltl back, it makes sense to move his expiring contract now for draft picks ahead of the 2023 NBA Draft in June.

NBA: G-F Matisse Thybulle, Philadelphia 76ers

Despite being named to an All-Defensive team in each of the last two seasons, including a 2021-22 campaign that saw him lead the league in STL%, young wing Matisse Thybulle has been practically removed from the Philadelphia 76ers main rotation. Thybulle and the Sixers failed to reach an agreement on a rookie scale extension over the offseason, guaranteeing that the 25-year-old will reach restricted free agency this summer. Falling out of the rotation on a Sixers team who are dangerously close to the repeater rates of the luxury tax, Thybulle should be seen as a major candidate for a deadline deal.

As of December 27th, Thybulle is averaging a career-low 11.5 minutes per game due to increasingly sporadic playing time. However, in the 14 games that Thybulle has played less than nine minutes this season, including an early DNP back in October, the Sixers are 7-7. In every other game where Thybulle is available and played at least 10 minutes, the team is 11-4. Well, why isn’t he playing?

The elephant in the room is Thybulle’s consistently awful shooting, including a career-worst 49.2 eFG% this season. Even so, the former Washington Husky has clearly lived up to the pre-draft hype for his defensive skillset, giving him value in the right situation. While teams looking to trade for him shouldn’t expect an addition even to their secondary scoring, Thybulle still brings league-best defense proven to be effective at the highest level.

At the end of the day, it may not even matter to the Sixers what Thybulle’s new contract value could come out at for them to consider trading him. According to Spotrac, the team’s payroll (not including cap holds) for next season already stands at $159.8 million, almost $26 million above the projected $134 million salary cap and only $2.2 million below the luxury tax. In the current season, the Sixers are already $1.2 million over the tax threshold, which, if the season ended today, would result in a mere $1.8 million tax bill.

The Sixers, on the other hand, have been in the luxury tax for the last two seasons. Teams who have finished in the luxury tax bracket in three of the previous four seasons, not including the current one, are subjected to increased rates under the dreaded “repeater tax.” As a result, in order to avoid harsher penalties in the future, Philadelphia must avoid the tax this season and next.

As a top-of-the-line defender in the final year of an affordable contract but no longer a part of the team’s future, Thybulle is the logical choice for a deadline trade to free up the payroll in both this season and the next. As things stand, the Sixers’ 108.7 defensive rating is 2nd in the league, suggesting the team may not need Thybulle’s defensive prowess after all.

The team certainly improved in their defensive depth over the offseason with the additions of De’Anthony Melton, Danuel House, and PJ Tucker. Because of that, I’d be pretty surprised if we see Thybulle in a Sixers uniform post-deadline. Despite his inability (so far) to find any form of a consistent shot, Thybulle’s defensive pedigree and favorable salary this season should still make him a valuable asset come February.

NBA: F-C Kelly Olynyk, Utah Jazz

The beginning of the Will Hardy era in Salt Lake has produced some of the purest basketball we’ve seen in years through elite three-point shooting, constant ball movement, and fast pace. Nonetheless, despite the team’s exciting start to the season, it’s still most likely that the Utah Jazz become huge sellers at the trade deadline. While this may certainly include veterans like Mike Conley, Malik Beasley, and even Jordan Clarkson (despite the extension rumors), one of the often most under-looked players in the league, now a member of the Jazz, is Kelly Olynyk.

Over a quarter of the way into the season, Olynyk has maintained the hot shooting hand that helped the Jazz jump out to a blistering 10-3 start. The former 13th overall pick is currently boasting career-high shooting percentages including 43.0% from three. Among big men who have shot at least 100 3PA this season, Olynyk ranks in the top 6 in 3P%, C&S 3P%, TS%, and eFG%. The only other player to do so this season? Five-time NBA All-Star Al Horford.

The best news for possible trade suitors is that Olynyk’s contract is extremely favorable. Olynyk’s 2022-23 salary sits at $12.8 million fully guaranteed. While he isn’t the only player on this list not in the final year of his contract, following this season, he only has a mere $3 million in guaranteed money remaining on his deal. This makes him pretty attractive to a team looking for a short-term rental since they don’t really need to worry about finding a trade partner later on, should the move prove ineffective.

On the flip side, Olynyk technically has two years of team control left. Therefore, should a team trading for him wish to keep him around, all they need to do is fully guarantee his 2023-24 salary up to $12.2 million, an affordable price for a stretch big who excels in catch-and-shoot situations. Additionally, Olynyk will become extension eligible on August 2, 2023 (depending on when the contract was actually signed) until June 30, 2024, assuming the final year becomes fully guaranteed.

Okay, so if Utah is looking to sell and Olynyk’s shooting is so strong, why is he still on the team? The Jazz are playing the trade game the way they should: slowly. Why rush? They’re the team with the assets. Look how it paid off for them with the Donovan Mitchell trade. For months, everyone thought the trade partner was going to be the Knicks. I’m sure the Jazz were offered a trade package for Mitchell relatively early on that half the league wouldn’t hesitate to accept.

Instead, they waited. They let competition build and they got an absolute haul of draft picks as a reward. Don’t mistake the Jazz’s surprising start for an accelerated rebuild around standout Lauri Markkanen. Judgment Day is coming in Salt Lake City, and something tells me February 9th might be the date with Kelly Olynyk amongst the victims.

NBA: F Kyle Kuzma, Washington Wizards

At the time of Kyle Kuzma’s three-year extension with the Los Angeles Lakers in December 2020, fans were slowly starting to lose interest in the former first-round pick. Despite the Lakers coming off an NBA championship at the time, Kuzma’s role had been reduced to that of a sixth man, bringing down his stats and apparent value along the way.

Two years later, Kuzma finds himself on the Washington Wizards, a team that, ironically, is looking at the play-in tournament from the outside, like this year’s Lakers. While the team does have at least a respectable roster, at 12th place in the Eastern Conference, the franchise is once again at a crossroads where it must decide how to construct the roster going forward.  Kyle Kuzma’s future with the team will be a critical part of that analysis.

Following Kuzma’s trade to the Wizards in the Russell Westbrook deal, head coach Wes Unseld wasted no time inserting the Michigan native back into the starting lineup. The effects were instantaneous. Kuzma’s scoring figures reverted back to their original levels and beyond. This season, Kuzma is scoring a career-best 21.8 points per game on 56.1 TS%, also the best mark of his career.

According to Cleaning the Glass, Kuzma has an efficiency differential of +5.5, easily the highest he’s ever produced, putting him in the top 24th percentile in the league. While he has yet to find a consistent three-point shot, Kuzma has proven time and time again to be a viable third or fourth-scoring option on not only a competitive team but a championship-winning one.

Unlike the rest of the players on this list, Kuzma’s contractual situation is completely in his control. The 27-year-old is in the second season of his three-year extension with a $13 million player option for 2023-24. If Kuzma maintains his current level of play, it is highly unlikely that he even considers picking the option. Technically, Kuzma could decline the $13 million player option and immediately sign a four-year, $69.9 million extension with the Wizards, keeping him in the nation’s capital until 2027, but even that’s foolish.

While the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement limits Kuzma’s extension to the value laid out above (something I can break down another time), Kuzma can sign a contract as a free agent (subscription required) this summer with a first-year salary of up to 25% of the salary cap. Let’s do some quick math. What is 25% of the projected $134 million 2023-24 salary cap? $33.5 million. That’s just in the first year. Don’t forget the 8% raises that factor into the other years on the deal.

To be clear, Kuzma is almost certainly not getting that max contract in the offseason. However, the point remains that there is much, much more money out there for him on the open market.

While the 2023 free agent class could include some big names at the forward position like Khris Middleton, Draymond Green, and Jerami Grant, Kuzma is younger and likely more affordable, making him a top candidate to get a big contract this summer.