The Sacramento Kings turned a lot of heads when they selected Keegan Murray with the fourth overall pick in this year’s NBA Draft. Not because Murray was seen as a reach or somebody who had a high risk of becoming a future bust.
On the contrary, Murray’s skillset, including movement without the ball and 3-point shooting (39.3 percent from deep last year with Iowa), made him a pretty safe choice. However, this was viewed as a miss for a Sacramento Kings team that has two All-Star level players in De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis and is actually trying to win some games.
This thought process was made all the worse by the fact that Jaden Ivey was selected right after Murray.
The Detroit Pistons are benefiting from the fact that the Sacramento Kings clearly still see Fox as their solution to the point guard situation in Sacramento, and you know what? What, exactly, is wrong with this way of thinking? What the Sacramento Kings have done here is quickly replace Tyrese Haliburton (who they shouldn’t have moved anyway) while adding Sabonis to the mix.
Murray is actually set up to be a success here but expectations are low because the Kings are the Kings and his style of play would fit anywhere. Here are three expectations for Murray in his rookie season.
Sacramento Kings #3: He leads the team in 3-point percentage
Last season, the Kings finished 24th in 3-point shooting (34.4 percent) and 24th in offensive efficiency (109.6). Worryingly, that number slipped to 27th (110.1) after the All-Star break, once Sabonis had embedded himself into the group after his early February move from the Indiana Pacers.
There is much work to be done here, and it won’t be all on Murray to sort out the mess that is a sense of identity for this group. Instead, he is more likely to catch opponents cold early on as they underestimate him. That movement without the ball will be key and is the reason players like Klay Thompson have gone on to have Hall of Fame-level careers.
Fox had a usage rate of 29.1 last season, up from his career average of 27.4. If trade talks involving him heat up again, you can be sure he’ll do all he can to put himself in the shop window. This could mean overdoing it with the ball or forcing all of the action around him.
Meanwhile, Murray’s demeanor and playing style indicate that he is more likely to let the game and shots come to him. He’ll look effortless in allowing this to happen on some nights, and he will be a great release valve if teammates just don’t have it. That is not to say Murray can fix everything, and as a rookie, he won’t be expected to.
There will be mistakes, growing pains, poor shooting nights, and slumps. The Kings are what they are at this stage, but Murray represents a chance to learn from past mistakes and allow a player who is good at something to do that thing well. Thus, he can lead this group in 3-point shooting percentage as a rookie.
Sacramento Kings #2: Averages three assists a night
This seems like a small and insignificant number. After all, Murray averaged only 1.5 assists per night last season, and as already mentioned, his game is predicated on moving without the ball, getting free, and letting his shots fly. How can we compare Murray to Thompson when he himself has only averaged 2.3 assists in nine seasons in the league?
That’s exactly it though. Let’s see if Murray can be a little bit different from the roaming sharpshooters who have come before him and bring something a little bit different to the table. As you can probably imagine, assists per game was another area where the Kings struggled last year, despite Sabonis being a deft passer (5.8 assists in 15 games with the Kings).
Which explains why they trended a little closer to the league average (22nd, with 23.7 assists as a team per night) here compared to some other categories. If Murray could improve his passing ability beyond what he showed in college, then it could open up the rotation to different kinds of lineups.
Davion Mitchell showed himself to be an excellent defensive guard in his own rookie campaign. He also averaged 4.2 assists a night. If Murray can use his large frame to stay in front of his man while producing dimes at an increased rate, that could bode really well for a franchise that is looking to create some sort of identity outside of Fox-ball.
Even if Sabonis and Fox are running a nice two-man game, having Mitchell and Murray around them to do a lot of the other stuff on the court would be very beneficial. But it all starts with Murray’s ability to show he can pass and create for his teammates at a level we have yet to see from him.
Sacramento Kings #1: Top three in Rookie of the Year
It would be amazing for the player and the team if Murray won the Rookie of the Year award. But that is a goal to aim for and not a realistic expectation right now, as we are discussing here. What is much more achievable is finishing in the top three in this category, and because of the misfortune of others, Murray is already off to a good start.
Paolo Banchero was the first overall pick for the Orlando Magic, and early indications are that he is going to solve a lot of problems for them. We have discussed Ivey, and he really has the kind of Ja Morant-like explosiveness to be a hit for the Pistons right away as well. Next to Cade Cunningham, the Pistons could make some playoff noise next year, which would help Ivey’s case.
Where it gets interesting is after these two. Certainly, Murray has nothing to fear going up against either of those names and like Banchero and Ivey, he is playing for a young group that is trying to climb the standings. With the news that Chet Holmgren is already done for the season, and given that he was the second overall pick for the Oklahoma City Thunder, well, that changes things.
Holmgren would have been right in the Rookie of the Year mix, and now he is not. The third pick in this year’s draft was Jabari Smith Jr., and he went to the Houston Rockets. Smith Jr. will be a fine player. Defensively, he already looks to be at a high level for a rookie, and if anything, the Rockets could be the best team of all of the ones mentioned here.
So his platform to shine could end up being the brightest, or at least the most noticeable to the people who vote. But if Murray can come in and shoot the lights out, move the ball more than he has, as well as generally improve the offensive flow and help create an identity in Sacramento, a top-three finish here is inevitable. That would help fuel the rising belief that this organization is not a laughing stock anymore.