With the college season on the horizon, we’ll break down the five best prospects in each class with regards to the 2018 NBA Draft — starting with seniors.
The college season hasn’t kicked off yet, but it’s important to get a sense of where certain prospects stand ahead of time. It gives you a better perspective once the season does start, while also keeping you ahead of the curve before the draft hysteria kicks in next summer.
One of the more underrated dynamics of any draft is the individual classes within it. Freshmen normally garner the most hype, but upperclassmen tend to be the more productive collegiate talents. By the time June comes around, it’s up to the individual teams to weigh the benefits of youth and upside against experience on the bigger stage.
With that in mind, we’ll continue our preseason breakdowns with an analysis of the top five prospects in each class for the 2018 NBA Draft — starting with seniors. While fourth-year players don’t normally get much draft love, the recent success of Malcolm Brogdon and Buddy Hield are just a few examples of what more seasoned talent can do.
We’ll start things off with a handful of honorable mentions: Anas Mahmoud (Louisville), Bonzie Colson (Notre Dame), Jeffrey Carroll (Oklahoma State)
5. Alize Johnson, PF, Missouri State
After spending time in junior college, the 2016-17 campaign marked Johnson’s first season of Division I basketball. He didn’t necessarily face the staunchest competition, but looked the part of an NBA prospect with a mobile 6’9″ frame and one of the more versatile offensive attacks you’ll find outside the first round discussion.
There are some clear points of concern with Johnson. He’s only 206 pounds, meaning he’ll need to add more muscle in order to defend well at the next level. He also lacks a certain degree of polish — something his second year with Missouri State should help address.
He’ll be 22 by the time the draft comes around, and raw 22-year-olds aren’t the most ideal archetype, but his potential is too impressive to overlook. He has legit playmaking skills at the 4-spot, while his 3-point stroke — which yielded a 38.8 percent success rate last season — has shown plenty of promise.
He’s highly adept in transition, where is athleticism and playmaking ability shine. That, combined with promise as a spot shooter, should give teams enough reason to give Johnson a look. His ability to add muscle and continue his improvement against mid-major competition will be key in determining where his draft stock inevitably falls.
4. Vince Edwards, SF, Purdue
Edwards is primed for a big senior year as one of Purdue’s focal points. His 6’8″ frame, which boasts a seven-foot wingspan, gives him ample flexibility on the defensive end, while his 42.6 percent clip from deep is something he’ll look to build on in an expanded role.
He isn’t a spectacular athlete, but should fill in nicely at either forward spot once his frame fills out, and could defend three or four positions if his intensity improves. The growth he shows (or doesn’t show) on that side of the ball will likely facilitate just how highly teams view Edwards through an NBA lens.
Shooting will be his calling card at the next level, but he has flashed some legitimate potential beyond that on the offensive end. Some of the court vision he shows when driving the lane is promising, and his ability to carve out space in the paint with a number of nifty moves — whether they be hook shots or fadeaways — means he’s an active threat at all three levels.
Once he improves his at-rim finishing and cleans up his handles more, Edwards could pose some serious mismatches as a stretch-4, while fitting well as a niche player on the perimeter. He won’t be a star, but has the makings of a solid rotational piece at the next level. That’s all you can expect out of second round talents.
3. Devonte’ Graham, PG, Kansas
Graham will be well past 23 by the time next year’s draft comes around, but that shouldn’t bump his stock too far. He has been one of college ball’s most effective guards for a couple of years now, and figures to take yet another step forward next season with Frank Mason making his way to the NBA.
At 6’2″, a lot of Graham’s work thus far has been off the ball. Spending time playing off of Mason, as well as names like Lagerald Vick and Josh Jackson, meant most of his damage was done as a spot-up shooter, where his 38.8 percent clip from deep — on 6.7 attempts per game — gives him plenty to build on moving forward.
His game extends beyond that shooting, though, with a quick first step and the craft needed to find pull-up shots from mid-range or finish through traffic. That comes with excellent hustle on the defensive end as well, allowing him to make an impact without being overly versatile.
There’s something to be said for producing at a consistently high level for multiple years in college, and Graham has certainly done that. He may not have the ceiling of some of the upper echelon guards, but he has a stable floor and should be a quality cog in an NBA rotation.
2. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, SG, Kansas
Mykhailiuk’s stock is driven by upside more than productivity at this point. The Ukranian has struggled to find his role on some talented Kansas teams, and has in turn underwhelmed fairly consistently despite being considered a late-first or early-second round talent.
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Now entering his fourth season as one of the youngest players in his class — just 20.4 years old — draftniks will be expecting his biggest leap yet in a rotation that could give him some favorable opportunities.
Even with his struggles, the basic appeal in Svi as a prospect has held steady. He’s 6’8″ with room to fill out his frame, and that comes with one of the more aesthetically pleasing shots in the draft. He hit on 39.8 percent of his deep balls last season, and could see a steady increase in shots if his confidence (and in turn production) kick up next season.
Considering he’s the age of most sophomores, inconsistency isn’t a huge surprise with Mykhailiuk. He’s more of a project than your typical senior, but brings the kind of positional versatility and floor spacing that could be molded into a viable long-term weapon under the right guidance.
1. Grayson Allen, SG, Duke
You either love or hate Grayson Allen, and the majority of non-Duke fans tend to lean towards the latter. From the tripping incidents to the general disdain that comes from carrying that bad boy vibe on a Blue Devils team, Allen has found no shortage of controvery in his three years under Coach K.
With all of that put aside, though, Allen is still a first round talent with room to grow. He’s a sneaky good athlete at 6’4″ with a 6’7″ wingspan, and has a combination of toughness and shot-making ability that could translate into a solid sixth man-type role at the next level.
Allen had a down year last season, with injuries, Luke Kennard’s breakout and those aforementioned tripping incidents all contributing to his struggles. His head wasn’t quite right, and his scoring average dropped to just 14.5 per contest — a sharp decline from his 21.6 the year before.
He’s still a career 38.6 percent 3-point shooter when at this best, and can both spot-up and play off the ball or carry some point guard duties when asked to. His decision-making is a work in progress, but he’s a crafty pick-and-roll threat who gives NBA teams a couple of options when it comes to deciding his niche long-term.
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On top of that, he’s the kind of gritty, in-your-face defender that any rotation can use. He’ll cover either guard spot with success, and plays the role of irritant as well as anybody in the 2018 class can. Some are higher on Allen than others, but the talent has always been there. A bounce-back fourth season is to be expected.