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Predicting the top 5 rookies heading into the 2023–24 NBA season

Donald Hamilton
Donald Hamilton

Hoops Habit

HENDERSON, NEVADA - OCTOBER 04: Victor Wembanyama #1 of Boulogne-Levallois Metropolitans 92 and Scoot Henderson #0 of G League Ignite shake hands after their exhibition game at The Dollar Loan Center on October 04, 2022 in Henderson, Nevada. Ignite defeated Metropolitans 92 122-115. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

The NBA Draft and season have come and gone, and free agency has already begun with many players navigating to their new destinations or staying put where they already are. Outside of free agency in the month of July is the Summer League where we get the first look at the new infusion of young talent drafted into the NBA annually.

This year’s draft was anything else but short on talent with the 7-foot-4 French Giant Victor Wembanyama making his way to the San Antonio Spurs, to other highly-touted talents such as Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson making their way to the Charlotte Hornets and Portland Trail Blazers respectively.

That’s not even including the Thompson Twins (Amen  & Ausar), Anthony Black, Gradey Dick, and another surprise player who’ll be making his rookie debut this season after missing what would’ve been his initial rookie year last season. Without further ado, let’s get into my top five rookies heading into next season.

Gradey Dick, Kansas Jayhawks
Gradey Dick, Kansas Jayhawks

5. Gradey Dick, Shooting Guard, Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors just lost one of their key go-to initiators and scorers in free agency, Fred VanFleet, who played a pivotal role in their 2019 championship run. With VanFleet gone the Raptors added Dennis Schroeder to try to make up for the void and will still have Gary Trent Jr at the starting two-guard position.

Outside of Trent, the Raptors are very light on off-guards and will need their rookie and 13th overall pick out of Kansas, Gradey Dick to play key minutes and have a role from day one of his rookie year.

Dick is a confident, flamboyant player from Kansas who at 6-foot-8 is the best shooter from the draft class this year shooting 40% from three-point range as a Jayhawk last season… Talk about a dead-eyed sniper!

He’s not overly athletic but he can throw one home if he has an open lane and has a beautiful release and follow through on his jumper. Dick will be playing important minutes for a Raptors team that looks to be heading into a new era with him and Scottie Barnes as the young foundational pieces to build around for the foreseeable future despite Pascal Siakam being there as the last true pivotal player from that Raptors title run in 2019 with Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, and VanFleet all gone.

Dick’s confidence and acumen as a shooter and scorer will help find him minutes in the Raptors rotation as they seem to be going through a transformation period in the franchise.

Brandon Miller, Alabama Crimson Tide
Brandon Miller, Alabama Crimson Tide –Syndication Tuscaloosa News

4. Brandon Miller, Small Forward, Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are coming off an injury-plagued season for many of their core guys such as Gordon Hayward, Kelly Oubre Jr., and of course, their franchise player LaMelo Ball, who missed all but 36 games last year after going down with a broken right ankle which ended his season on March 1st.

The Hornets just extended Ball to a rookie max extension to secure their lead guard of the future and drafted Miller 2nd overall over Henderson to help pair an elite two-way wing with All-Star potential to form a young duo of the future with Ball.

Miller will come in right away off the jump getting considerable minutes as a rookie for the Hornets. He’s a scorer at will who can score at all three levels whether it was from deep, the mid-range, or attacking the basket.

He averaged 18.8 points per game last season at Alabama while shooting an efficient 48% from the field and 38% from three. Miller did have a 26.2% usage rate as a Bulldog last season, according to Basketball Reference, so it’ll be interesting to see how he fits with the Hornets as he won’t have the ball in his hands as much as a shot creator early on in his career with guys such as Ball, Oubre Jr, and Terry Rozier who also can take the pressure off in that department.

Miller is also a willing defender and has that killer instinct you love to see in players who are willing to do anything it takes to win.

Expect him to make a major impact on both ends for Charlotte from Day One.

OKC Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder rookie Chet Holmgren (Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports).

3. Chet Holmgren, Power Forward, Oklahoma City Thunder

Surprise! Did y’all forget about “The Unicorn”?

Before all the hype and praise on Wembanyama from this year’s draft class as something we’ve never seen before, there was another 7-footer making noise at Gonzaga in 2021-22, and that is 7’1 forward Chet Holmgren.

Holmgren missed all of what would’ve been his initial rookie season this past year after suffering a lisfranc fracture in his right foot at the Drew League last summer off a drive by LeBron James where he tried contesting his shot and landed wrong.

Despite missing all of this past season, Holmgren has supposedly put it to good measure by reportedly putting on 13 lbs of muscle to go from 195 lbs to 208 lbs which will do him wonders to better handle the rigors of NBA physicality.

Holmgren is unique like Wembanyama in the sense that he’s a 7-foot-plus human who has the handles of a guard (played guard before his massive growth spurt growing up), is a defensive anchor who gobbles up shots as a ferocious shot-blocker, great help side defender, can shoot the ball well from deep, and create his own shot off the bounce at a high level.

The Thunder have their primary scoring option in  Canadian star guard, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s coming off an All-NBA Second Team selection after averaging over 30 points per game last season. They also have other great young pieces in Australian guard Josh Giddey and All-Rookie First Team selection Jalen Williams.

Holmgren showed a lot of promise last year at the Summer League that included a game that saw him reject six shots, showing his elite defensive instincts and the kind of impact he can make immediately with his size and length.

He won’t be the primary or even secondary scorer to start off his career, but, with his diverse talents all over the floor, I expect him to be in the running for Rookie of the Year as a top three option on his team and his ability to impact the game in a variety of ways.

Scoot Henderson NBA Draft (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Scoot Henderson NBA Draft (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

2. Scoot Henderson, Point Guard, Portland Trail Blazers

There’s been a whirl of rumors and reports of where Blazers superstar guard Damian Lillard will end up whether that’s the Miami Heat (his preferred destination), Brooklyn Nets, Boston Celtics, or anywhere else that the Blazers decide to trade Lillard.

Assuming the Blazers trade away Lillard, this will open up the door for Henderson as the face of the franchise moving forward and the keys to the offense as the primary initiator of attack. Henderson seems ready for whatever the Blazers decide to do either way.

Henderson is a downhill attacker with his electric athleticism and chiseled NBA-ready frame who can finish amongst the trees, which he showed during his two years while with the G-League Ignite.

The only question regarding Henderson is his perimeter jumper, shooting just 27.5% from three last year with the Ignite. Teams will sag off of him early on in his career until he addresses that weakness.

He still impacts the game in many ways, whether that’s using his speed and explosiveness to attack the basket and suck the defense in to create an open shot for a teammate, or getting out in transition and finishing strong at the basket.

Henderson is very self-assured in his abilities as a player, and assuming Lillard gets moved this summer, the Blazers have a wealth of young talent to be stoked about from him, Shaedon Sharpe, and Anfernee Simons as building blocks for the future.

Victor Wembanyama NBA commissioner Adam Silver, via Getty Images)
Victor Wembanyama NBA commissioner Adam Silver, via Getty Images)

1. Victor Wembanyama, Center, San Antonio Spurs

Who else did you expect to be the best rookie and the favorite for Rookie of the Year? Generational, Once in a Millennium, Transformational, and Game Changer are all words that have been bestowed to describe the Spurs’ new shiny toy in the 7-foot-4 “French Mamba” Victor Wembanyama as a specimen the likes of humanity has never seen on a basketball court.

Wembanyama decided to withdraw from the FIBA World Cup games this summer to focus on preparing his body for the rigorous NBA season and also obtain some rest for his body after playing in the French League up to a week before the draft.

Wembanyama will come in immediately as the top guy on both ends of the floor. He will struggle against stronger bigs early on in his career, a la Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic, but he will utilize his quickness and agility at his size with guard skills to combat his lack of girth at this junction of his career to make an impact and tire opponents out.

Wembanyama also will be a game-changing defensive anchor for a Spurs team that allowed the most points in the league last season (123.1 per game). He can swat someone’s shot at the rim and block someone’s three-point attempt all in one play due to his absurd 8-foot wingspan to go along with his 7’4 frame.

Wembanyama has already stated he’s trying to win as soon as possible and hopes to make an imprint on the team immediately on both ends of the floor, which is expected as he’s been hyped as the best prospect since LeBron James and to some in NBA History! No Pressure.

Donald Hamilton

Donald Hamilton

Donald is a contributor to Hoops Habit, covering the NBA. From Haverstraw, NY, he graduated from North Rockland High School in 2018 and earned a Bachelor of Arts in Communications from SUNY New Paltz. Along with his writing, he also hosts a sports podcast and website called DJ's Sports Show.