Point guards run the league, and the 2018 NBA Draft class has a few sleepers worth watching.
The 2018 NBA Draft will be quite different from 2017, both in terms of talent distribution and the type of talent available. Rather than a deep, guard-filled class, this year brings loads of frontcourt talent in the lottery and little to speak outside of that.
That’s where sleepers come into play.
Even in a year that isn’t considered all that deep, there will always be players capable of outperforming expectations. That’s especially true at the point guard position, where the 2018 crop is especially thin — which only increases the importance of evaluating and determining the most promising (and underrated) prospects.
There will be some point guards who aren’t on the radar now that will be soaring up draft boards next June. That’s just the nature of limited talent at any position, as teams who need somebody at a certain spot will reach for players who can fill that role.
It’s our job, as analysts, to decipher who’s worth reaching for — and particularly, who might be operating under that sleeper status. Here are five point guards who might be worth more than their current projections.
5. Aaron Holiday, UCLA
Overshadowed by the Lonzo Ball hype train last season was Aaron Holiday, who put up 12.3 points and 4.4 assists while shooting 41.1 percent from deep for the Bruins — all while coming off the bench. As the last brother in the Holiday lineage (Justin Holiday, Jrue Holiday), the rising junior should be the third family member in the league if he commits next summer.
This season will give us a better idea of what Holiday can do in a bigger role. He’ll still split a large chunk of the backcourt duties with the incoming Jaylen Hands, but should be leaned on heavily as one of UCLA’s primary scorers given his experience in Steve Alford‘s system.
While he’s somewhat undersized by NBA standards at 6’1″, Holiday’s offensive skill-set gives him a clear path at the NBA level. He’s a plus shooter who can get dribble penetration and score in the lane when needed, boasting a nice array of floaters and pull-ups when working off the dribble.
Teams need spark-plug scorers off the bench, and that’s what Holiday has provided thus far at UCLA and should continue to provide at the next level. How his numbers hold up in any form of an expanded role this year will determine how favorably teams view him, with his most likely draft range falling somewhere in the second round.
4. Jaylen Hands, UCLA
Entering his freshman season as the No. 22 recruit in the nation according to 24/7 Sports, Hands figures to take on the duties of lead ball-handler for a UCLA team that will look to continue some of the success that Lonzo Ball instilled last season.
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While the workload split between him and the aforementioned Holiday isn’t quite clear, Hands is irrefutably the better prospect. There’s no guarantee that he goes one-and-done, but given the lackluster nature of this year’s point guard class, he could be tempted to declare early if his draft stock rises high enough.
At 6’2″ with a 6’4″ wingspan, length is the one thing Hands lacks athletically. He’s as explosive as they come off the dribble, while his end-to-end speed should make him a terror in the open court. That athleticism makes him a dynamic threat when driving the lane, while also affording him some extra creative ability in isolation.
Streaky shooting and iffy decision-making have been the biggest knocks on Hands thus far, but he remains one of the younger names in the 2018 class. Just turning 18 recently, he has plenty of time to grow moving forward, and should be handed a sizable role in a premier program next season.
3. Landry Shamet, Wichita State
Shamet quickly established himself as one of Wichita State’s most reliable pieces last season, but it wasn’t until the NCAA Tournament that people started to take notice on a national scale. Shamet put up 20 points while dropping some impressive dimes in the Shockers’ narrow loss to Kentucky, briefly placing him on the NBA Draft radar before it was clear he’d be returning to school.
Landry has some nice tools for the next level, standing at 6’4″ with a high-I.Q. approach and plenty of shooting, which allows him to work both on and off the ball. He hit on 43.9 percent of his 4.6 attempts per game from deep last season, showing nice instincts when positioning himself in catch-and-shoot scenarios.
He also has some shake off the dribble and a nice mid-range pull-up game along with some crafty finishing around the basket. That scoring touch, combined with strong vision in the pick-and-roll, should allow Shamet to find an NBA role from day one in the right situation.
Like Hands, there’s no certainty regarding whether or not Shamet will declare next summer. He could be one of the better players in a weak point guard class, though, which could force his hand a bit if next year is his best shot at a first round selection, or something of the sort.
2. Devonte’ Graham, Kansas
Graham will be 23 by the time next year’s draft rolls around, which might end up being his greatest weakness. He has also spent the last three years in more of a complementary role, something he’ll be forced to step out of next season as one of Kansas’ offensive focal points.
Most of Graham’s production came off the ball last season, with now-NBAers Frank Mason III and Josh Jackson carrying a lot of playmaking load. His spot-up shooting played a large part in a 38.8 percent clip on 6.7 attempts per game, as he carved out a role as the Jayhawks’ best scoring spark on the outside.
Graham will spend a lot more time with the ball in his hands this season, testing his effectiveness in the pick-and-roll while seeing how his isolation production measures out against expectations. His backcourt partner, Lagerald Vick, is a talented enough ball-handler to continue giving Graham some run off the ball though, which could end up being his best fit in an NBA offense early on.
As somebody who was on the draft radar but never really thought of as somebody who would commit last season, Graham will need to have a big senior year to establish himself as an early second or late first round option. His combination of shooting and playmaking upside would fit well in a complementary role at the next level, and there’s still some underrated benefits to spending four successful years in college.
1. Andrew Jones, Texas
Jones has the most variability of almost any prospect in terms of where his draft stock could end up next June. As somebody who went through some growing pains in his freshman season, he has as much a chance of working his way into the lottery discussion as he does falling into the second round. It’ll all depend on how a few key facets of his game pan out.
If there’s one thing Jones doesn’t lack, it’s athleticism. He’s 6’4″ with a 6’7″ wingspan, and is in Hands’ range when it comes to explosiveness. Shooting was a weakness last season (32.8 percent from deep), but his ability to attack the lane and shred defenses in the open court is something scouts found themselves enamored with.
Our own Max Holm slotted Jones as his second best point guard in the 2018 class — ahead of the highly-touted Trevon Duval.
There’s still a lot of room left for Jones to grow. He needs to straighten up his shot, work on consistency and improve his decision making, but all the tools are there. He showed flashes of excellent vision in transition, as well as some sneaky mid-range potential when his jumper was falling.
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Jones also brings a solid defensive pedigree to the table. As long as he’s able to continue filling out his frame, he should have a high enough floor defensively to push some teams in his direction.