NBA: Top 10 candidates for MVP in 2017-18

Gerald Bourguet

Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images

NBA — Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images

In a superstar-driven league, who will rise above the pack to earn the NBA’s 2017-18 MVP Award? Here are the top 10 candidates.

More than any other sports league, the NBA’s end-of-year awards season is a spectacle. With so many creative and colorful awards like Sixth Man of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player and Rookie of the Year, NBA awards season is simply more entertaining and incites more discussion than any other sport.

In a superstar-driven league, however, the one award that every other sports league offers eventually comes to centerstage for the NBA as well: the Most Valuable Player Award.

The NBA’s MVP Award is as important as any in sports, mostly because basketball is a sport where one player can singlehandedly sway that outcome of a game, a playoff series or even an entire season. In a league dominated by larger-than-life personalities and exemplary on-court talents, MVP is a regular season designation that celebrates the alpha dog of an entire season.

That’s not to say the voters always get it right. Even last year, there was a strong case for a certain infamous Beard down in H-Town despite the MVP’s triple-double exploits. Heading into a new season, however, who are the favorites to bring home the Maurice Podoloff Trophy?

In order to sort it out, here’s a look at the 10 candidates most likely to bring home the NBA’s 2017-18 MVP Award.

Honorable Mentions: John Wall, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Damian Lillard, Jimmy Butler, Rudy Gobert, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, DeMarcus Cousins

Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images

10. Karl-Anthony Towns

It might seem like a stretch to include Karl-Anthony Towns on this list above more established superstars like John Wall, Chris Paul or Blake Griffin, but KAT just put up 25.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.3 blocks per game on .542/.367/.832 shooting splits in his second season.

If another leap in year three is possible, you can be guaranteed those staggering numbers — coupled with the Minnesota Timberwolves‘ likely rise in the Western Conference standings — will put Towns squarely in the MVP conversation.

Maybe we’re jumping the gun a little bit, but don’t forget that Anthony Davis made a similar jump into the MVP race in his third year. Towns appears to be on a similar career trajectory, only with Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Andrew Wiggins flanking him, Towns might have the team success that the Brow didn’t back in 2014-15.

Aside from Russell Westbrook last year, Moses Malone (1982-83) was the last MVP winner to play for a team that didn’t rank in the top three of its respective conference standings, so Towns and the Wolves have their work cut out for them. After all, Westbrook had to average a triple-double to pull off the feat last year.

But even as he approaches his 22nd birthday, it’s hard to count Towns out. If the T-Wolves can climb into a top-four seed behind massive numbers and stellar two-way play from KAT, he’ll force his way into the discussion sooner than anyone anticipated.

NBA — Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

9. Kyrie Irving

Narrative is only a sliver of the MVP pie chart, but if Kyrie Irving posts big numbers to lead the Boston Celtics to the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, who could deny such a compelling story? Especially if LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers are their main competition?

Irving took a ton of flak for his request to be traded away from a sure return to the NBA Finals, but that alpha dog mentality — founded or not — could easily be flipped back into a positive if he puts up career numbers in his first season under Brad Stevens.

Last year, Irving put up a career-high 25.2 points and 5.8 assists per game on efficient .473/.401/.905 shooting splits. If he can build on that stat line and put in consistent effort on the defensive end, the Celtics can repay the favor by masking some of the flaws in his game, particularly with defenders like Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward and Al Horford flanking him.

Boston would almost certainly have to snag the 1-seed in the East for Irving to have a fighting chance as MVP, but the Cavs will be missing Isaiah Thomas until around January, and LeBron will continue to coast through regular seasons as he preserves his energy for the playoffs, so perhaps this isn’t such a massive long shot as it first appears.

8. Anthony Davis

Back in 2014-15, Anthony Davis posted one of the greatest Player Efficiency Ratings in NBA history while singlehandedly dragging the New Orleans Pelicans to the 8-seed in a loaded Western Conference. Since then, the Brow and the Pellies have not been back to the playoffs.

Will that change in 2017-18? It’s hard to say. The West is even more brutal than it’s ever been, and even with DeMarcus Cousins and Jrue Holiday flanking him, NOLA’s supporting cast still leaves a lot to be desired. Head coach Alvin Gentry also has a long way to go in proving himself as the right man for the job.

So even if the Pelicans sneak into the West as the sixth, seventh or eighth seed, it’s going to take a monumental season from AD to join Westbrook as an MVP winner in the modern era whose team finishes outside of the top three in the conference standings.

Entering his age-24 season, it’s not impossible for Davis to do so, however. He just put up a career-high 28.0 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 2.1 assists and 1.3 steals per game. He still isn’t a 3-point shooter, but if he can slightly expand his range, take his game to the next level defensively and lead the Pelicans to the playoffs, maybe gargantuan numbers will carry the day.

Photo by Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images

7. Stephen Curry

Remember him? The two-time MVP who may have put up the greatest regular season in NBA history in 2015-16? Though Kevin Durant may have snatched the title of alpha dog away from Stephen Curry last year, the greatest shooter in league history is arguably still the most important player on the Golden State Warriors.

Curry doesn’t hold a candle to KD on the defensive end, but the ball-handling, shot creation, passing, 3-point shooting and pure defensive gravity he creates power the Dubs’ unstoppable offensive onslaught. Durant makes this well-oiled machine hum like never before, but the truth is, it’d still be beastly with any competent, 3-point shooting, high-scoring wing in his place.

Durant is obviously the best-case scenario of this NBA Death Star being realized, but there’s a reason Golden State was still able to win 73 games when Harrison Barnes was playing that same spot. The two-time MVP probably won’t get credit for it now that Durant is onboard, but Curry is the first and foremost reason the offense is so deadly.

Last season, his numbers dipped to 25.3 points, 6.6 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game, which couldn’t hold a candle to his 2015-16 numbers, especially as his shooting splits dropped to .468/.411/.898.

But Chef Curry looked like he found himself when Durant missed those 20 games due to injury, and with a year of familiarity under their belts, there’s a chance Curry and Durant are even better together in 2017-18. If that’s the case, another historic shooting season could plop Steph Curry right back in the MVP picture, even if KD’s still the favorite here.

6. James Harden

The sad truth is James Harden‘s MVP window may have already closed, especially after he submitted two of the finest non-MVP seasons in NBA history (2014-15 and 2016-17) and still couldn’t get past the runner-up spot.

5. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Consider this the popular dark horse pick. After leading the Milwaukee Bucks in scoring, rebounding, assists, blocks AND steals last year, it’s only a matter of time before Giannis Antetokounmpo owns the league. That transition could very well begin in 2017-18.

Heading into his fifth NBA season, the Greek Freak is still a 3-point shot away from being the league’s most terrifying two-way player, but he’s also only 22, so that feels like an inevitable addition to his game. If he does manage to incorporate that skill into his repertoire this season, while also stepping up as his team’s defensive anchor, MVP honors might not be far behind.

Last year, Giannis put up 22.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.9 blocks and 1.6 steals per game on 52.1 percent shooting en route to the Most Improved Player of the Year Award, so he’s clearly on the track to superstardom. As his game continues to expand, the only thing that might hold him back is his team success.

The young Bucks may have landed the 6-seed in last year’s playoffs, but it came on only 42 wins. With Jabari Parker sidelined, they’ll need Khris Middleton to shake the rust off if the goal is 50 wins and a top-four seed in the East.

However, if the Bucks stun the world and surge to a top-three record in their conference, it’ll likely be because Giannis has an positively monster year. If that’s the case, the Greek Freak may swoop in and lay claim to the title of “NEXT” among the NBA’s elite.

Photo by Michael J. LeBrecht II/NBAE via Getty Images

4. Russell Westbrook

Is it crazy to think Russell Westbrook can average a triple-double again in 2017-18? Because even with the additions of Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, it’s hard to see where they’ll really steal from his production.

With two proven scorers flanking him, Russ obviously won’t average a league-leading 31.6 points per game again, but he’ll still be in the 22-28 points per game range. PG-13 and Melo are better passers than they’re given credit for, but Westbrook is still a safe bet to average double-digit assists since the offense will hinge on him setting up his high-scoring wings for easier looks.

His production on the boards might dip with George and Anthony entering the fold, but even then, Westbrook led the Thunder in rebounds last year, when the Oklahoma City Thunder ranked first the league in that category. In other words, having great rebounders around him hasn’t stopped Westbrook’s kamikaze dives to the rim for both offensive and defensive boards.

In any case, Westbrook’s MVP case doesn’t rely on duplicating his triple-double feat anyway. If he puts up remotely comparable numbers and remains the undisputed No. 1 for an improved OKC team, the reigning MVP could easily go back-to-back.

Westbrook’s insane numbers propelled him to MVP honors despite his team’s standing as the sixth-best team in the West. With PG-13 and Melo onboard, the Thunder could climb as high as the 2-seed or the 3-seed, and if they do, you can be guaranteed Russ will earn quite a few MVP votes — whether he pulls another Oscar Robertson or not.

NBA — Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images

3. LeBron James

It sounds odd to say this about one of the greatest players in NBA history with four MVP Awards and three titles, especially after he just averaged career-highs in both assists (8.7 per game) and rebounds (8.4 per game), but we could be entering a statement season for LeBron James.

Not only is this his last year under contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers, but that off-court distraction converges with the emergence of a Warriors dynasty that might last half a decade. At age 32, it would’ve been easy to write off the King’s title chances before Kyrie Irving’s shocking trade request threw James’ reputation of being a great teammate under the bus.

Now, LeBron faces a 2017-18 campaign with Kevin Love starting at center, a 35-year-old Dwyane Wade likely starting at the 2 and Derrick Rose filling in for an injured Isaiah Thomas until January. These are not ideal conditions for re-signing King James next summer, especially for a poor defensive team that already ranked 22nd in defensive rating last year.

However, as we’ve known for years now, LeBron James seems to be at his very best when the deck is stacked against him. It’s simply what the all-time greats do, and even if the upcoming season ends in another second-place finish, you can never count out the best player in the NBA.

Yes, he’ll turn 33 in December. Yes, his team is hobbled, aged and can’t defend. And yes, LeBron usually coasts through the regular season to save himself for the playoffs. None of this stops us from putting King James among the top three candidates in a fairly wide open year for MVP honors.

Photos by Darren Carroll/NBAE via Getty Images

2. Kawhi Leonard

The 2016-17 MVP race came down to Russell Westbrook and James Harden on most ballots, but Kawhi Leonard was not far behind. A look at the aging San Antonio Spurs roster and the team’s gaudy 61-win total reveals why, even with Gregg Popovich still being Gregg Popovich.

Leonard’s raw numbers paled in comparison to his MVP counterparts, with the Claw putting up 25.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.8 steals per game. His rebounding and playmaking will need to increase, and even his scoring could stand for some improvement on the stat sheet.

However, Leonard remains perhaps the game’s most imposing two-way player, regardless of what the on/off-court numbers revealed about the team’s defense last year. He posted terrific .485/.380/.880 shooting splits, led the Spurs to the second-best record in the league in their first year without Tim Duncan, and dominated head-to-head battles against everyone from Kevin Durant to LeBron James to Paul George.

Leonard just turned 26 over the summer, so you can be guaranteed he’s going to be even better in 2017-18. Clinging to the first three quarters of the Western Conference Finals before Kawhi went down remains little more than fool’s gold for San Antonio fans hoping to end Golden State’s reign, but even with an aging, thinner roster, the Spurs could very well win 60 games again simply because of the Claw, Pop and continuity.

In a wide open year, there’s a chance Kawhi Leonard’s oven mitt-sized hands snatch up the Maurice Podoloff Trophy, especially if the Spurs wind up winning 55-60 games. With less help around him, Leonard’s accomplishments are going to stand out even more, making him an early MVP favorite.

1. Kevin Durant

When Kevin Durant nailed that go-ahead 3-pointer over LeBron James in Game 3 of the NBA Finals, many — this writer included — viewed it as the microcosm play of a changing of the guard. James may have averaged a triple-double for the series, but KD was its best player, averaging 35.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.6 blocks and 1.0 steals per game on .556/.474/.927 shooting.

Considering most of that production came with King James guarding him, the performance of the reigning Finals MVP matters. Yes, he obviously had more help with a vastly more talented team. But considering Durant isn’t leaving this team anytime soon, does that context really matter for our purposes?

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Unless the NBA changes the Finals format to a one-on-one battle, Kevin Durant on this Warriors team is going to be more dangerous than LeBron on that Cavaliers team. Basketball is not played in a vacuum, in other words, and it’s the reason KD enters the 2017-18 season as our MVP favorite.

Playing with Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green obviously diminishes his individual accomplishments, but KD still put up 25.1 points, 8.3 points, 4.8 assists, 1.6 blocks and 1.1 steals per game on .537/.375/.875 shooting splits in a “down” year.

Now that he’s more familiar with his teammates and has the narrative of his first championship, a Finals MVP Award and finally besting LeBron head-to-head on the biggest stage, this feels like Kevin Durant’s time. There’s just too much momentum to ignore here.

It’ll take big numbers from KD to outshine Curry, LeBron and every other MVP candidate, but the Golden State Warriors won 67 games last year with Durant missing 20 games. This team could very easily breeze through the regular season with 70 wins, and if Durant is healthy, his team-leading numbers will make him a hard candidate to ignore.

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If that’s the case, if KD creeps closer toward joining the 50-40-90 club again and if he bumps up his numbers again, there’s a very good chance he rides this wave through to his second MVP Award. Last year in Game 3 of the Finals, Durant made his first move to snatch the title of NBA alpha dog away from LeBron. A 2017-18 MVP campaign to follow it up wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest.

Gerald Bourguet