In a loaded 2017 NBA Draft class, here’s a look at the top 10 candidates for the 2017-18 Rookie of the Year Award.
For most NBA fans, the most exciting part of the upcoming season is thinking about which contenders will go head-to-head once the playoffs finally arrive six months later. This is a star-driven league, and the NBA’s brightest and most entertaining stars are often the ones leading their teams deep into the postseason to compete for championships.
However, not every franchise’s outlook can be that optimistic heading into a new season, and now that the Golden State Warriors seemingly have a vice grip on the rest of the basketball world, many are turning their attention to where it usually goes when a team is expected to be uncompetitive: the youngsters.
Because of the cyclical nature of the NBA’s power structure and the way the draft lottery is set up, bad teams are usually presented with a light at the end of the tunnel in the form of a top draft pick. These players represent the chance for a franchise to draft the next big thing, the future superstar who will one day lead a currently crummy team back to the promised land.
Because that future is usually a few years down the road, expectations for first-year players are often confined to the annual Rookie of the Year race. They won’t reach their fullest potential in year one, but watching the rooks find their footing is always an intriguing part of any NBA season.
Heading into the 2017-18 NBA campaign, a crowded Rookie of the Year race takes center stage for plenty of fanbases that have already accepted the Warriors as their overlords. With such a deep and talented rookie crop, this year’s possible ROY candidates may even extend beyond the following group. Here are the top 10 candidates for the 2017-18 Rookie of the Year Award.
Honorable Mentions: Lauri Markkanen, Milos Teodosic, Malik Monk, Jonathan Isaac, Frank Ntilikina, Bam Adebayo, Jarrett Allen, Kyle Kuzma
10. Jayson Tatum
This seems disrespectfully low for the No. 3 pick of the draft, but before Boston Celtics fans start lighting their torches and sharpening their pitchforks, consider that general manager Danny Ainge said it himself: Jayson Tatum probably won’t play enough to earn Rookie of the Year honors.
Over the last 10 years, the only player to win Rookie of the Year while playing fewer than 30 minutes per game was Malcolm Brogdon. Team success should be a factor in the voting, but Tatum is unlikely to find the minutes needed to put up big numbers when Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Morris and Semi Ojeleye are all viable options at the 3.
Tatum displayed the NBA-caliber scoring that he’s expected to possess during NBA Summer League, averaging 18.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.3 steals and 2.0 assists per game on 46.8 percent shooting in Utah and 17.7 points and 8.0 rebounds per game in Las Vegas to earn Second Team All-Summer League honors.
Tatum shouldn’t be counted out of the running as a top-three pick, but unless injuries call for it, his limited minutes on a top Eastern Conference contender will probably prevent him from putting up ROY numbers.
9. De’Aaron Fox
De’Aaron Fox is a bit of a long shot, but as another top-five pick, it’d feel wrong to leave him out of this top 10 list.
On one hand, Fox still lacks an NBA jump shot, which could easily turn him into a faster version of Elfrid Payton at the next level. George Hill could also steal some of his thunder in the backcourt, even if they split time together at the 1 and 2.
On the other hand, Fox is clearly the Sacramento Kings‘ point guard of the future, which means he’s assured starting minutes at some point this season, especially as the playoffs slip further from reach.
In his 21.3 minutes per game at Summer League, Fox averaged 11.8 points, 3.0 assists, 2.3 rebounds and 2.3 steals per game on 44.4 percent shooting. Those numbers won’t get it done in the ROY race, but if he can grab an undisputed hold on that starting point guard job and get plenty of playing time with a rebuilding team, who knows?
8. Donovan Mitchell
If Donovan Mitchell had a clearer path to starter’s minutes, he’d easily be the dark horse pick of this list. Unfortunately, he’ll have to fight for every minute Quin Snyder is willing to give him, competing with the likes of Rodney Hood, Alec Burks, Joe Ingles, Joe Johnson and Thabo Sefolosha on the wing.
The Utah Jazz may have lost Gordon Hayward, but they were a potential 60-win team if not for all the injuries they sustained. The Jazz still have their sights set on the postseason, which could limit Mitchell’s opportunities if he’s not as NBA-ready as he looked during Summer League.
In three Utah games, Mitchell put up an eye-popping 25.3 points, 3.3 assists and 3.3 steals per game. He followed that up with 28.0 points and 6.0 steals per game in two Summer League appearances in Sin City.
The early returns are clearly looking good, but can Mitchell be efficient enough to not only earn minutes in the rotation, but prove himself as a designated scorer off the bench? It seems unlikely to happen in his first NBA season, but his strong Summer League play has to put him on the ROY radar in some capacity.
7. Bogdan Bogdanovic
Consider this our official dark horse pick for the 2017-18 Rookie of the Year Award. De’Aaron Fox is the most heralded of three incoming first round draft picks for the Sacramento Kings, but don’t overlook the team’s fourth rookie, 2014 first round pick Bogdan Bogdanovic.
Originally drafted by the Phoenix Suns and traded to the Kings for Marquese Chriss in last year’s draft, the Serbian native is finally heading to the NBA — all while coming off his most impressive EuroLeague season yet.
This year for Fenerbahce, Double Bogdan put up 14.6 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game on absurdly efficient .500/.430/.855 shooting splits, helping lead his team to the Turkish Super League championship and earning Finals MVP honors in the process.
Buddy Hield is a focal point of the Kings’ rebuild, which could hold Bogdanovic back. But there’s a very good chance he’s already better than Hield, and if his minutes go unchecked, he could very easily produce big enough numbers on a rebuilding team to throw his name into the conversation.
6. Josh Jackson
Josh Jackson is most commonly known as the rookie who’s one jump shot away from being the real deal. It’ll take more than a season for him to fine-tune that part of his game, but as the No. 4 overall pick, Jackson looks like a two-way force to be reckoned with.
In Summer League, Jackson struggled shooting the ball, converting 42.5 percent of his looks from the field and only three of 16 3-point attempts (18.8 percent). However, he showed he can still have a major impact on the game on both ends of the floor, averaging 17.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.0 blocks per game en route to First Team All-Summer League honors.
The biggest problem is, even for a rebuilding Phoenix Suns team expected to be terrible again in 2017-18, Josh Jackson is not guaranteed a starting job. T.J. Warren is the more experienced player, and finished the 2016-17 campaign on a strong note after shaking off the aftereffects of his mysterious head injury early in the year.
If Jackson proves himself as the superior option at the 3, the Suns may jumpstart their future once again by giving this franchise pillar starter’s minutes. But it’ll take that, impressive two-way numbers and a surprisingly efficient 3-point stroke to take home ROY honors over our top five.
5. John Collins
The recipe for Rookie of the Year consideration includes ample minutes, big numbers and, preferably, having an impact by way of helping the team win. That last one is pretty much out the window for John Collins and the Atlanta Hawks, but the other two are fair game for the most overlooked candidate.
Most likely, the name John Collins is on your radar for one of the following three reasons: 1) You’re a diehard Hawks fan, 2) You’re confusing his name with a gin and lemon juice cocktail or 3) You remember the best dunk of NBA Summer League:
However, it wasn’t just that dunk that earned him First Team All-Summer League honors, since Collins put up an impressive 15.4 points and 9.2 rebounds per game on 59.3 percent shooting in Las Vegas.
The Hawks are expected to compete with the Chicago Bulls for the worst record in the association, so Collins will see plenty of minutes at the 4. If he can make the most of them like he did in Sin City, this unexpected candidate could emerge as the Rookie of the Year.
4. Markelle Fultz
Now we arrive at the heavy-hitters. It might be a bit of a surprise to see the No. 1 pick of the 2017 NBA Draft as low as No. 4, but the truth is a healthy Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid will probably steal some of the thunder from his rookie campaign.
Simmons sat out what should’ve been his entire rookie season due to injury, while “The Process” has only played 31 games in his first three years in the league. With the Philadelphia 76ers‘ focus being on Embiid’s unbelievable talent and Simmons’ duties as point forward, Fultz might not get as much opportunity to shine as your normal first overall pick would.
However, we certainly can’t exclude his elite scoring potential from the top five. In two Summer League appearances in Salt Lake City, Fultz posted 20.0 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game on 46.9 percent shooting.
After putting up 23.2 points, 5.9 assists, 5.7 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks per game on .476/.413/.649 shooting splits in his lone season at Washington, it’s clear the sky is the limit for Fultz. The question is whether playing off the ball in his first NBA season will hinder his Rookie of the Year chances.
3. Dennis Smith Jr.
It’s unknown whether Dennis Smith Jr. will get the starting job from day one, but he probably should for a Dallas Mavericks team that’s unlikely to push for a playoff spot in the loaded West. Yogi Ferrell and Seth Curry had pleasantly surprising seasons for the Mavs last year, but make no mistake about it: DSJ is the future of the franchise now.
Wanting to compete in Dirk Nowitzki‘s final years is commendable, but that front has failed for awhile now. If Rick Carlisle is ready to trust a rookie with his offense, Smith will be one of the top ROY candidates in 2017-18.
Though his leadership was questioned during a rough season for NC State, Smith still put up 18.1 points, 6.2 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game on .455/.359/.715 shooting splits. At Summer League, Smith earned First Team honors behind 17.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 2.2 steals per game on 45.7 percent shooting.
Dennis Smith Jr. is one of this year’s most electric rookies. He’s a high-flier who joins Harrison Barnes and possibly Nerlens Noel as this team’s promising new nucleus. If he’s given the opportunity to establish himself as the next franchise face from day one, he’ll be a top contender for Rookie of the Year.
2. Ben Simmons
Sitting out his entire rookie season slowed down the hype train a bit, but with Ben Simmons healthy and Fultz joining the party, the Philadelphia 76ers will welcome two No. 1 picks into the fold. As the team’s point forward and a potential two-way force, Simmons gets the edge as his team’s most likely ROY candidate.
Now that he’s been fully cleared to participate in 5-on-5 activities, Simmons is going to be the centerpiece of a suddenly attractive offense. With Embiid not cleared yet, Simmons playing the role of facilitator and Brett Brown’s recent comments raising some eyebrows, there’s no question his rookie year comes with plenty of justified anticipation.
The world hasn’t seen Ben Simmons play meaningful minutes since 2016 NBA Summer League, so it’s hard to know what to expect from his game. Can he shoot yet? Will he be an impactful defender? Will his body hold up over a rigorous 82-game season in a starting role?
Those questions, along with what role he’ll play both with and without Joel Embiid, remain unanswered. But Simmons would’ve been the hands down ROY favorite last year, and even in a crowded race this year, he remains one of the front-runners.
1. Lonzo Ball
Another member of the All-Summer League First Team, Lonzo Ball earned one distinction that no one on this list can claim: Summer League MVP honors. Behind 16.3 points, 9.3 assists, 7.7 rebounds, 2.5 steals and 1.0 blocks per game over his six appearances, it was easy to see why.
Summer League is just Summer League, but the elite passing stemming from his up-tempo playing style was always going to be his calling card, and it was on full display in Vegas. The Los Angeles Lakers are still quite a ways from recapturing their Showtime days, but Lonzo Ball is the first essential step to getting there.
Ball didn’t shoot the ball well in Sin City, but in his lone season at UCLA, he shot 55.1 percent from the floor and 41.2 percent from 3-point range. His jumper is goofy-looking and unconventional, but it goes in most of the time.
As the centerpiece of the Lakers’ rebuild, Ball will be the team’s starting point guard from day one. His game looks NBA-ready, and though he will struggle to defend opposing point guards, he’ll most likely put up the kind of gaudy, well-rounded numbers it takes to capture Rookie of the Year votes.
Next: Top 10 candidates for 2017-18 Coach of the Year Award
If the Sixers make the playoffs and Simmons helps lead the charge behind a strong stat line, Ball could lose out. But as of right now, the likely combination of big numbers, central role, heavy minutes and absurd amounts of hype make Lonzo Ball the early leader for the 2017-18 Rookie of the Year Award.