As the Phoenix Suns embark on their 50th season as an NBA franchise, here’s a complete preview of what should be expected in 2017-18.
Spoiler alert: The Phoenix Suns are not going to be a good NBA team in 2017-18. In a loaded Western Conference, their chances of preventing an eight-year playoff drought are less than optimal.
However, unlike most seasons since general manager Ryan McDonough took over in 2013, there’s reason for hope in the Valley of the Sun. The reason? He and owner Robert Sarver are on the same page as far as being patient with a fledgling youth movement.
The path to the playoffs, let alone Western Conference contention, will be a long one for Phoenix, the fourth-winningest NBA franchise of all time that’s still never won a championship despite this being its 50th season in the league.
However, with Devin Booker, incoming rookie Josh Jackson and a bevy of young, moldable players, the prospect of potential has given rise to #TheTimeline movement that has Suns fans excited for the first time since Goran Dragic led his plucky 2013-14 team to 48 wins and nearly earned a playoff berth.
As the Golden State Warriors continue their holy war on NBA parity, now is as good a time as ever to commit to a long-term rebuild, assembling a young core that will grow together and hopefully become a perennial title contender down the road.
With expectations lowered and an organizational commitment to developing these young players, the Suns will be worth watching this year…even if their win-loss record doesn’t reflect it. Here’s a look at their 2017-18 season preview.
2016-17 Vitals
24-58, 5th in Pacific Division, 15th in Western Conference
107.7 PPG (9th)/113.3 PPG (30th)
106.6 Offensive Rating (22nd)/112.2 Defensive Rating (28th)
Team Leaders
Scoring: Devin Booker, 22.1 PPG
Rebounding: Tyson Chandler, 11.5 RPG
Assists: Eric Bledsoe, 6.3 APG
Steals: P.J. Tucker, 1.5 SPG
Blocks: Alex Len, 1.3 BPG
Honors
NBA All-Rookie Second Team: Marquese Chriss
2017-18 Roster
Dragan Bender, PF
Eric Bledsoe, PG
Devin Booker, SG
Tyson Chandler, C
Marquese Chriss, PF
Troy Daniels, SG
Jared Dudley, SF/PF
Josh Jackson, SF
Mike James, PG
Derrick Jones Jr., SG/SF
Brandon Knight, PG
Alex Len, C
Alec Peters, PF
Davon Reed, SG
Tyler Ulis, PG
T.J. Warren, SF
Alan Williams, C
Offseason Additions
Josh Jackson (No. 4 overall draft pick, Kansas), Mike James (two-way contract), Alec Peters (No. 54 overall draft pick, Valparaiso), Davon Reed (No. 32 overall draft pick, Miami), Troy Daniels (trade, Memphis Grizzlies)
Offseason Subtractions
Leandro Barbosa (free agent, unsigned)
Quick Thoughts
Plenty of superstar names floated around the trade market this summer, but the Suns ultimately did the smartest thing possible by staying patient and avoiding giving up significant pieces of the rebuild/future draft assets for the rental of a star player.
Instead, Phoenix threw its full support into #TheTimeline, drafting Josh Jackson as a potential franchise pillar alongside Devin Booker (and, hopefully, Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss). If he develops a jumper, he could very well become the best two-way player in his draft class.
Jackson is a potential franchise star, which makes up for Phoenix’s complete noninvolvement in free agency aside from re-signing Alan Williams and most likely retaining restricted free agent Alex Len on his one-year qualifying offer.
The Suns preserved cap space for future extensions among the core, added three rookies, scored a potential blue-chip prospect and only parted with Leandro Barbosa. They won’t be good next year, but ending that seven-year playoff drought isn’t really the ultimate goal anyway.
Storyline 1: Warren vs. Jackson as the starting small forward
Josh Jackson is the perfect complement to Booker as a defensive stalwart, slasher and possible secondary scorer. Between those two, the Suns have two foundational pillars to build upon. The question is, how soon does Jackson bring the future into the present and earn the starting job?
Some already believe Jackson is a better NBA player than T.J. Warren, the current starter at the 3-spot. Jackson’s jumper is a long-term project, but he’s already a stout defender, superior facilitator and more well-rounded player overall. However, he’s also a 20-year-old rookie who will most likely take his lumps, even if he does wind up being Phoenix’s long-term fixture at small forward.
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As for Warren, he’s had problems staying healthy through his first three seasons in the league and hasn’t proven himself as a starting-caliber wing. In fact, at this point, his destiny seems to be a high-octane bucket-getter off the bench in a sixth man role.
However, Warren has improved on the defensive end and has an undeniable knack for putting the ball in the basket — something Jackson may struggle with as he adjusts to the next level. Warren is not a 3-point shooter either, but he enters the 2017-18 campaign with a bit of momentum after averaging 17.6 points and 7.7 rebounds per game while shooting 56 percent from the floor after the All-Star break.
Warren will probably get the starting nod to start the season, but don’t be surprised if #TheTimeline takes over at some point…or if Jackson actually winds up outplaying Warren and snagging the starting job for the foreseeable future.
Storyline 2: Breakout year for Devin Booker?
It sounds silly to say this about a player who averaged 22.1 points per game last year, but because of his defense, poor team record and underwhelming shooting percentages, right now, Devin Booker is still seen as a player putting up good numbers on a bad team — even though he’s only been in the league for two years.
Unlike Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis and Myles Turner, Booker is just outside of the “sure thing” category that some of his fellow 2015 NBA draftees are already in. However, even without that same unicorn skill-set, Booker appears close to putting it all together with a breakout year.
Though Bledsoe will be back on the court and Jackson will need touches as well, the Suns are well-suited to focus their offense around this 20-year-old without putting an inordinate amount of pressure on him to carry the load. He’s already the face of the franchise, and if he can be more efficient than his .423/.363/.832 shooting splits last year, he could conceivably put up 25-26 points per game.
Though Book won’t turn 21 years old until a few games into the season, he just averaged 22.1 points per game — putting him alongside Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Shaquille O’Neal as the only players in NBA history to average at least 22 points per game in a season before turning 21.
The defensive end is where Booker needs to improve, and eventually, he’ll need to prove he can lead/carry the Suns to wins as this young core matures together. For the time being, however, that 70-point game serves as a pretty clear indicator he can get buckets, and you can expect that developing skill to put him in the national spotlight this season.
Storyline 3: Patience is required for #TheTimeline
As mentioned before, the Suns have been in Phoenix for almost 50 years and still don’t have an NBA championship. For the fourth-winningest team in league history, which is also approaching a franchise-worst eight-year playoff drought, being patient isn’t high on anyone’s to-do list.
However, it’s what will be required for this rebuild to take shape. Earl Watson gave the youngsters ample minutes down the stretch last season when it became clear the postseason was out of reach, and entering a new season, that point of emphasis must remain.
Valley of the Suns
The question is, with Eric Bledsoe and Tyson Chandler back on the floor, how will the Suns approach #TheTimeline? Devin Booker and Marquese Chriss should get plenty of time in their starting roles, but will Watson carve out space for Dragan Bender from the get-go?
Will Josh Jackson get the starting nod over T.J. Warren, or will he have to earn it in the coming months/years? Does Alex Len get one last chance to prove himself as a starter, assuming he returns on his qualifying offer? Tyler Ulis is the team’s backup point guard, but can Derrick Jones Jr., Alan Williams and a healthy Davon Reed/Alec Peters crack the rotation too?
How Watson manages the frontcourt is of particular interest. Despite their attempts to play him at the 3, Bender is best suited for the 4 or the 5. He has a more well-rounded skill-set than Chriss despite what the raw numbers suggest, but will Bender actually get the chance to prove it in a starting role?
There are questions about how Chriss and Bender might mesh in the same frontcourt alongside one another. There are questions about Booker’s defense, Jackson’s NBA-readiness and how much these young, core pieces should be playing alongside each other when veterans like Bledsoe, Chandler and Jared Dudley are still on the roster.
From wondering about which veterans might be on the move to figuring out how many minutes Jackson, Bender and Chriss will get, the emphasis should be on patience and the youth. To that end, feeding #TheTimeline as much as possible remains the goal — especially since another season at the bottom of the standings could bring in another franchise pillar in a 2018 NBA Draft class that’s loaded in the top five.
Best-case scenario
Josh Jackson earns the starting job from day one, but T.J. Warren proves himself as an intrinsic part of #TheTimeline by thriving in his sixth man role. Alex Len doesn’t pan out, but that works out for the best as the Suns avoid paying for his services when Dragan Bender shows signs of rim protection and defensive versatility as the starting 5.
Devin Booker enjoys a breakout season that puts him in the national spotlight, while Marquese Chriss slims down and shows some progress on the defensive end.
The Suns trade Eric Bledsoe and/or Tyson Chandler for future draft assets and with another poor record, earn a top-two pick in this year’s draft, giving them their choice between Luka Doncic and Tempe native Marvin Bagley III as yet another franchise cornerstone for the rebuild.
Worst-case scenario
Watson shows the same devotion to his veterans that he did at the start of 2016-17, feeding Bledsoe, Chandler and Dudley heavy minutes. Chriss doesn’t earn enough playing time despite being the starter by name and carries the same weight and accompanying lack of burst he showed in NBA Summer League.
Bender and Jackson don’t get enough minutes to prove their two-way skill-sets and the Suns continue to play Bender out of position with mismanaged lineups. Warren starts but doesn’t show any of the flashes of life he showed after the All-Star break last year. Booker doesn’t show any signs of progress on the defensive end and his shooting numbers remain unsatisfactory.
Phoenix remains in the playoff hunt for too long thanks to an easier first half schedule, tricking themselves into thinking they can earn the 8-seed. The Suns don’t move any of their veterans for young talent or draft picks and win 35-40 games — falling well short of the playoffs while still missing out on a game-changing rookie in a top-heavy draft.
Predictions
It may take a few months for them to fully commit, but #TheTimeline will be in full force sooner or later in the 2017-18 campaign.
Even if the Suns don’t trade Bledsoe while his value is at its highest, they still have plenty of available minutes for the core four of Booker, Jackson, Bender and Chriss. Chriss and Booker will start, and though Jackson will back up Warren off the bench, he’ll still get ample minutes until eventually taking over the starting job (or simply filling in if Warren gets hurt again).
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Jackson won’t win Rookie of the Year without the hearty playing time, but he’ll earn a few votes for his two-way play and NBA-readiness. Bender won’t get enough minutes at the start, but eventually Watson will start to feed him the playing time he needs to build confidence and really show what he can do on both ends of the floor.
Alex Len will struggle once again despite needing to prove himself on his one-year qualifying offer, and when Tyson Chandler is dealt at the trade deadline, it will be Alan Williams who steps up and impresses once again.
Booker will enjoy his breakout season, showing progress as a playmaker and more efficient scorer, though the defensive end will continue to be an area for improvement. Ulis will excel as a backup floor general, but won’t convince anyone he’s a starting-caliber point guard just yet.
All in all, the Suns will win more games than they should at the start of 2017-18, but once the schedule tightens up and their playoff hopes die off quickly, they’ll go about the same tanking strategy they employed at the end of last season.
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Phoenix will finish with a bottom-five record around 28-54, keeping their fingers crossed for the chance to draft either Doncic or Bagley with a top-two selection. Given their horrible luck in the NBA Draft Lottery and how bad the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks are going to be, a top-five selection seems like the most likely outcome.